What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position. This is more of a first look because it is coming out on a Friday and the weekend can always bring change, especially in the Covid-19 era, we continuously have the slate turned upside down on Saturday morning. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t signed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!
| QBs: | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: |
| M. Trubisky | D. Cook | B. Cooks | J. Akins | TEN/CLE |
| R. Tannehill | D. Henry | A. Thielen | A. Firkser | HOU/IND |
| K. Cousins | A. Ekeler | C. Davis | K. Rudolph | CHI/DET |
| D. Carr | W. Gallman | J. Reynolds | R. Tonyan | LV/NYJ |
| K. Murray | M. Sanders | D. Hopkins | Z. Ertz | LAR/ARI |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
This is looking like a week where I will be paying down at Quarterback. There are question marks will all the QBs that I would normally pay up for. Wilson has seen a decrease in passing volume. Murray definitely looks hurt. Watson has a tough matchup and just lost Fuller for the rest of the year.
Cash
Mitch Trubisky is way too cheap this week against an atrocious Detriot defense. Trubisky has looked great for fantasy purposes. He was able to put up 21.78 fantasy points last week against Green Bay, after not starting since Week 3. This marks his second 20+ point fantasy game of the season, while only playing three full games. We saw week 1, he was able to put up 24.28 fantasy points even without the 300-yard bonus against the Lions. A fun fact about Trubisky is that outside of his rookie year, he has thrown three touchdowns all four times he has played the Lions and only one interception. He has only thrown for 3+ touchdowns in nine games during his career with close to half coming in games against the Lions. You also can’t forget about the rushing upside for Mitch, which is something Foles was lacking. You can top the amazing matchup off with 2-3 fantasy points boast from rushing stats.
So, Ryan Tannehill is a great play this week, but you can’t play him with Derrick Henry in cash and feel good about it. GPPs are fine, but not cash. Henry is not someone who is going to provide pass-catching upside. So, if you run want to play Henry, go with Trubisky or Cousins in cash. If you want to pay up for Cook and Henry, play Trubsiky for the safe value. Tannehill gets a banged-up Browns secondary that shouldn’t be able to stop either Davis or Brown this week. My only concern is if they get up early and give Henry 30+ carries or Henry just gets all the touchdowns.
This game has the highest over-under on the slate so I want to get some exposure to it. Whether it be from Tannehill with Davis or Brown and Firkster or Derrick Henry getting the ground game work. Both teams’ defenses should struggle, leading to a ton of points.
Safe GPP
Kirk Cousins has been surprisingly good this year and provides an amazing leverage play to chalk Dalvin Cook. The ball carriers for the Vikings have averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game when Cousins throws for more than 290 yards in a game. Cook is nice because he is involved in the passing game, so he is pretty much game script proof. You can take the chance of playing both in cash but I would much rather just pay down to get Mitch instead or take the $200 savings on Tannehill.
Cousins continues his streak of easy matchups this weekend against the Jaguars. Over the last four games, Cousins has faced the Lions, Bears, Cowboys, and Panthers. He is averaging 283 passing yards per game, with 11 touchdowns and one interception during that stretch. His worst game of course came against the Bears, where he threw his lone interception over that stretch. The Jags have been one of the worst defenses in the league on the ground and the air. Both Jefferson and Thielen have tier 1 matchups according to our WR/CB Matchup Chart.
Low Owned GPP
Derek Carr is coming off one of his worst games of the season last week against one of the worst defenses in the league last week. This should lead to close to no ownership on him for the perfect bounce-back game against the Jets. There are questions if Jacobs will even play this week, which would boast Carr even more. Although, that would also raise his ownership. Nothing is going right for the Jets this year, but they do have their entire receiving core back. So if the Jets can keep this game close, there could be a ton of hidden gems between these two offenses. We always talk about how divisional games can be weird and the Jets are no different. No divisional team has scored more than 30 points while every team out of division opponents has scored 30 or more points. If the Raiders are able to put up 4-5 touchdowns this week, watch out for Carr to have a huge game.
Running Backs:
Cash
I always struggle to play Derrick Henry in cash because if the Titans do get down then his snaps and usage fall drastically, but it’s DeHenber and that means it’s time for Henry to take over this league. Henry is coming off a slate breaking game, where a majority of people played Dalvin Cook over Henry and regretted it.
The addition of Garrett back for should hurt the passing game for the Titans, which means they will rely on Henry even more. The titans are one of the most run heavy teams in the second half when leading and I fully expect them for be winning this weekend.
Dalvin Cook will continue to have one the highest floors on every slate which is why he continues to be chalky and cash playable. He is starting to get pretty expensive so I am okay fading him in GPPs.
Cook has really become a matchup proof cash play this season. He leads the league with 27.0 fantasy points per game. He will be going up against the Jaguars who are allowing the 29th most fantasy points to running backs this season. We have played him in worse matchups this year, now we have a smash spot for him. Just like Cousins, Cook has had four easy matchups in a row and now gets another one.
Safe GPP
In Austin Ekeler’s first game back for the Chargers, he reached a career-high 16 targets, yes 16! This was just the 6th time in his career he reached double-digit targets. The concerns that they would slowly bring Ekeler back into the offense are gone now. Obviously, this is a very unsustainable number. All it shows is that Ekeler will continue to be used in the passing game, especially when they are down. Knowing New England they will try to take a team’s top target, which would be Keenan Allen. This could mean another 10+ target game for Ekeler if the Chargers get down early. Targets are key for upside in fantasy. There aren’t many outside Henry that can produce solely from rushing numbers.
One of the main concerns about the Chargers is that the Patriots love running the ball. This will keep the clock moving and lead to fewer possessions for each team. We all know Lynn is also an idiot and will run a lot too. If these offenses are able to run on each other this will cause probably some of the worst fantasy numbers for the Chargers players this season. This is why I am sticking with Ekeler as GPP only.
Low Owned GPP
Wayne Gallman is starting to look like an RB1 in this offense with the amount of work he is getting recently. Since week 7, Gallman is RB7; averaging 16.28 fantasy points per game. He has seen 50%+ of the offensive snaps for the Giants in four out of the five games as well. Gallman will be relied on even more heavily if we get the news that Daniel Jones will be ruled out. Most likely we will see a decrease in efficiency but an increase in usage. Gallman, since taking over as the lead back, has 10 carries inside the 5, which is tied for second, just behind Dalvin Cook. This has resulted in a league-leading six touchdowns inside the 5, during those five games.
He gets an amazing matchup against the Seahawks who have been one of the worst defenses in the league and in NFL history. Although, they have started to blitz Adams at a high rate. This has exposed teams with bad offensive lines like we saw last we against Philly. The Giants are currently allowing the second-most pressures in the league with 31%. So they will need to rely on the running game. The Seahawks are allowing 2.41 yards before contact which is second-worst in the league.
Fade:
Wide Receivers:
Cash
Brandin Cooks will be given the keys to this offense, as the Texans lose their team-leading WR, Will Fuller. They also just recently cut Kenny Stills and lost Randell Cobb to the IR. So, this team will be looking a lot different than it did a couple of weeks ago. The Texans will continue to be playing from behind most games, and this week will be no different. Going up against one of the best defenses in the league. Even with Fuller in the lineup, Cooks has a 25% target share since Week 5 and a 29% air yards share. We should see that increase this week to potentially over 30%. Unless the Colts double team Cooks, he should easily hit value this week. You can also look to other receivers in cash on this Texans team, Keke Coutee and Isaiah Coutler, but I don’t want to play more than two Texans in cash against a tough Colts defense.
Even though AJ Brown is receiving a ton of hype this week, I would much rather pay $300 less for someone who will get all the RedZone/Endzone targets and potentially double-digit targets in general. Adam Thielen has been activated off the covid list and will play this week against one of the worst defenses in the league. According to our WR/CB matchups chart at DFSkarma.com. Thielen is coming into last week with a 28% target share (5th most in the league) and 39% air yards share (3rd in the league with WRs of 70+ targets). The usage in Minnesota is so concentrated that even Justin Jefferson has 34% of the team’s air yards share and a 23% target share. Those two soak up 73% of the air yards and 51% of the targets on the team.
Thielen also commands a huge share of the team’s RedZone looks. When the Vikings get into the RedZone, it is either Dalvin Cook running it in or Thielen catching a touchdown. He has 35% of the RedZone targets on the team, and 57% of the endzone targets. He is leading the league in touchdowns that were caught in the endzone with eight as well.
Safe GPP
It seems like everyone wants the big-play potential from AJ Brown, but I love the other side of the offense with Corey Davis. Davis has taken a huge leap from when he was considered a bust. Davis has a 24% target share and a 39% air yards share this season, while Brown has a 25% target share and 31% of air yards. They have similar numbers this season but you get Davis at a $2,500 discount. The main difference between them is the YAC. Brown averages 7.88 YAC/Rec, while Davis only averages 4.14 YAC/Rec. Davis even has a higher aDOT; 12.02 vs 10.26. In games they both were active; Davis has 12 RedZone targets to Brown’s 7, and they both have the same amount of endzone targets. Brown averaged 15.4 fantasy points in the 7 games they played together, while Davis averaged 13.9. So similar averages with Davis saving you a ton in salary.
Low Owned GPP
I’m not really sure why DraftKings hasn’t raised Josh Reynolds’ price to around $5000, but I will continue to use him until they do. He also has an amazing matchup this weekend according to our WR/CB matchups chart. Reynolds really started to get heavily involved in this offense in week 7. Since then, he has a 20% target share with a 12.32 aDOT. Compared to Woods, 21% target share with a 6.44 aDOT and Kupp with a 25% target share 6.31 aDOT. This high of an aDOT and target share in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league should always be considered with a price as low as this. He averages a little over 11 fantasy points per game, against a Cardinals team giving up the 25th most fantasy points to WRs. People are most likely going to flood to the Texans’ cheap WRs when Reynolds can easily outscore both of them for a little more salary.
Fade:
With Kyler Murray dealing with a shoulder injury and the Cardinals going up against the Rams. There are just better WRs than DeAndre Hopkins this week. While, yes, he is normally a matchup-proof WR, Jalen Ramsey has done amazing this year and should be able to slow him down. He just not worth his salary this weekend.
