What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to my very first NFL Game Theory Article. In this article I will be outlining at my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position. This is more of a first look because it is coming out on a Friday and the weekend can always bring change, especially in the Covid-19 era, we continuously have the slate turned upside down on Saturday morning. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t singed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!
| QBs: | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: |
| R Wilson | D Cook | J Jones | T Kelce | ATL/DEN |
| D Lock | J Robinson | K Allen | D Waller | LAC/LV |
| J Allen | CEH | T Lockett | N Fant | SEA/BUF |
| M Ryan | JK Dobbins | A Robinson | L Thomas | JAC/HOU |
| L Jackson | E Elliot | A Cooper | H Hurst | PIT/DAL |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
We have a couple great options to pay up for this weekend. I have found myself paying up for QB more often than I have in years past. The ceiling in the top tier is just miles above anything below them. Last year, I tried to pay down as low as possible. QB fantasy points had such a low standard deviation that it was never worth it to me to pay $1000 more in salary when they were staying within one or two fantasy points of each other.
Cash
There are always two routes to go in cash games, pay up or pay down. I haven’t decided which way I wanted to go, but I have two guys I’m deciding between; Russell Wilson and Drew Lock. Russell Wilson appears to be the chalkier guy, while Drew Lock is the lower owned cash guy. I try not to run complete chalk in cash games and QB is where I like to differentiate myself most slates. Unless there is a clear cut cash lock. This week it doesn’t appear that way with several guys in great matchups.
We luckily got news that Chris Carson will be out, so the Seahawks will have to rely on Russell Wilson to win this game. I originally had him as a fade just because Bills have been known to try and funnel to the running game. With no running backs for the Seahawks, Wilson is going to have to do everything in his power to keep up with the Bills high-powered passing attack. The bad Seahawks defense makes Russ have to keep up with any team that has a remotely good offense. Without a running back, Wilson is probably going to have to put up 4-5 touchdowns and could easily flirt with 50 yards rushing.
Drew Lock is projected for extremely low ownership this weekend, but I don’t mind that in cash for quarterbacks. You don’t have to play the chalk at QB, like we saw last week with Jimmy G. Lock gets one of the easiest QB matchups in the league against the Falcons. They will also be on the road in a dome. That should favor a high scoring game. The Broncos will need to keep up with the Falcons. We all know Matt Ryan plays way better at home than on the road and being in a dome helps. The Falcons give up the most passing yards in the league, so the matchup couldn’t be any better.
Safe Gpp
Josh Allen has definitely had his ups and downs this year. He started the first four games on an unsustainable MVP run that potentially proved the haters wrong about him. In weeks 1-4 he averaged: 331.5 passing yards per game, 9.0 yards per attempt, a 71% completion percentage, and 20 rushing yards per game. All that while putting up 12 passing touchdowns, one interceptions, and three rushing touchdowns. He averaged 31.5 fantasy points per game, trailing Dak for QB1 by 0.3 points per game. He also averaged 0.78 fantasy points per drop back, which ranked first. His last four games are something to write off, dealing with adversity, such as weather and injuries. In weeks 5-8, Josh Allen is averaging 211.5 passing yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, a 62% completion percentage, with 36 rushing yards per game. He has only put up four touchdowns, with four interceptions, and one rushing touchdown. He averaged 16.85 fantasy points and 0.46 fantasy points per DB, which ranks 23rd.
I am expecting a nice bounce back from him this weekend as his plays one of the worst pass defenses in the league. He also gets John Brown back which will help his passing a lot.
Low Owned GPP
Matt Ryan has played like a QB1 every game Julio Jones has been healthy and I want to ride that Matt Ryan train all the way to a takedown this week. He is only projected at 4% ownership. That is just way too low for a guy that is putting up the numbers that Ryan has with Julio playing and healthy. Last week was a bump in the road for Ryan’s splits with and without Julio, but I won’t read into it too much. There is always variance built in to every play. You won’t get the outcome you expect every time you play a guy. Ryan was averaging over 350 passing yards and averaging just below three touchdowns a game, before last week against Carolina. He is just much better with Julio out there and even better with both guys healthy. Ridley is questionable and his lack of rushing upside limits him as a cash play.
Fade
Lamar Jackson has played extremely poorly this season and will be going up against one of the best defenses in the league. They were happy to run Dobbins and Gus Bus all game last week against one of the best run defenses in the league. I can’t play Lamar until he can get that connection with Brown again. I have seen him miss way too many targets this season to trust him.
Running Backs:
Cash
Dalvin Cook is coming off his best performance of the year, which is probably why we see him coming in as the projected highest owned player on the slate. He also sees an elite matchup against the Lions who are one of the worst run defenses and defenses in general in the league. The Vikings have no issues running Cook and giving him close to 30 touches in a game. I am expecting this game to stay close with the Vikings leading the majority of the game. This also depends on if Stafford plays or not. If he doesn’t play the Vikings should easily win, leading to a better game script for Cook. Unfortunately, this could decrease his ceiling with less receptions.
I am expecting the Jags to force feed touches to James Robinson as they will be starting a rookie sixth round pick at QB. I doubt they make Luton air it out and throw the ball, and the Texans defense is so bad on the ground and on short passes, the Jags will be giving Robinson close to 25 touches, and most likely 5-6 targets through the air as well. Expect a big game from Robinson, a high floor and break the slate ceiling. Just like Cook, he will be close to a must play at RB.
Safe Gpp
If Le’Veon Bell wasn’t on the Chiefs, Clyde might have slid into a play in cash potentially. We can never trust the Chiefs offense in the first place, now we bring in a back that can easily steal usage from CEH. He will probably never be in my cash pool unless he gets cheap enough, but guess what? He is playing the Panthers. They are the top run funnel defense in the league We have heard the past several weeks that if defenses are going to force Mahomes and the Chiefs to run, they will with no hesitation. We don’t have a ton of data on the carry splits for Bell and CEH, but I am expecting CEH to still get the majority of the carries. He is still out snapping Bell at a 70/30 rate, but the carries are similar. I am willing to take a shot against the worst run defense in the league.
Low Owned GPP
I had hesitation playing JK Dobbins last week going up against the Steelers, but we saw the Ravens were not afraid to pound the ball on the ground, even against a top tier defense. With Lamar not playing up to his MVP caliber that we saw last year, the Ravens will be relying on their run game again against a tough Colts defense. The Ravens run scheme seems matchup proof after what they were able to accomplish against Pittsburgh. I can’t play him in cash, with Robinson and Cook as such amazing plays, but if you need some salary relief in the flex, he is worth a shot.
Fade
You are going to see this a lot in my article but I am fading a lot of these Cowboys guys. They are going up against one of, in not, the best defense in the league this weekend. The Cowboys are coming off a 25-3 loss to the Washington Football Team. They have a good defense, just not a top tier. If the Cowboys can’t score a touchdown against those guys, I don’t expect them to score more than one touchdown this weekend. Zeke Elliott is potentially limited this week, with a hamstring injury. There is a chance we see a split between him and Tony Pollard this week.
Wide Receivers:
Cash
Julio Jones will be a staple of all my lineups, especially if Calvin Ridley misses. We saw that Ridley had over a 30% target share in most games that Julio missed. He also came close to 50% air yards for the team with Julio out. I am expecting a lot of targets for Jones this week, and even if Ridley plays Jones should kill it. If Ridley misses, there is a potential for double teams, which makes Ridley playing not a huge issue. In the five games Julio has been healthy, he has seen 9+ targets in four of them. He recording 97 yards or more in all the games he saw 9+ targets.
Keenan Allen is seeing a huge target share from Justin Herbert and is becoming one of the top fantasy WRs in the league this year. Herbert isn’t afraid to sling it down field but when he needs something in the middle or a short route he goes to Allen, just like Brees would always find Thomas. We have a rivalry game on our hands, and we know Allen loves to compete against the Raiders, so look for Herbert to try to find Allen early and often. In 11 games against the Raiders in his career, he is averaging around 10 targets per game, seven receptions, and over 70 yards per game, with four touchdowns over that stretch. Outside the Saints game, Allen has never seen under 8 targets and only under double digits once. He has never had huge touchdown upside, but his target share is always through the roof and leads to a very safe floor.
Safe Gpp
I am expecting Metcalf to be shadowed by Tre’Davious White and this should leave Tyler Lockett open. I wanted to put him in my cash core but I don’t think I can trust his floor. Sometimes we have a DK week and sometimes we have a Lockett week. This is shaping up to be a Lockett week. As I stated earlier, White should be shadowing Metcalf as he prefers shadowing the bigger guys. He shadowed Preston Williams and Breshad Perriman weeks one and two. Perriman had 5 targets for three receptions and 17 yards, while Crowder had 13 targets and 115 yards on seven receptions. Williams had one reception on five targets for 26 yards. The two slot guys for the Dolphins, Gesicki and Ford combined for 15 receptions on 20 targets for 206 yards. They are a slot funnel team that we need to take advantage of this weekend.
Low Owned GPP
Allen Robinson is one of the best WR in the league, but continues to see bad QB play each and every week. The Titans have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, which probably is due to having one of the worst pass rushes in the league. If you give Robinson time to develop all his routes, he can easily have a big game. My only issue is how bad Nick Foles is in a clean pocket. Robinson is just a good enough WR to take advantage of this matchup.
Fade:
Again we will see a Cowboy fall into the fade category. I prefer the fade of Zeke over Amari Cooper because the game script will favor the passing game, which could lead to a garbage time touchdown for Cooper. They are going up against one of, in not, the best defense in the league this weekend. The Cowboys are coming off a 25-3 loss to the Washington Football Team. They have a good defense, just not a top tier, like the Steelers. If the Cowboys can’t score a touchdown against those guys, I don’t expect them to score more than one touchdown this weekend.
Good Luck this Week and enjoy your weekend!
