What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position. This is more of a first look because it is coming out on a Friday and the weekend can always bring change, especially in the Covid-19 era, we continuously have the slate turned upside down on Saturday morning. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t singed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!
| QBs: | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: |
| T. Hill | M. Davis | J. Meyers | TJ Hockenson | DET/CAR |
| P. Walker | D. Cook | K. Allen | D. Goedert | ATL/NO |
| A. Smith | A. Peterson | T. McLaurin | L. Thomas | CIN/WAS |
| L. Jackson | D. Harris | D. Johnson | N. Fant | LAC/NYJ |
| A. Rodgers | D. Henry | D. Adams | R. Tonyan | IND/GB |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
This weekend’s slate is going to be a lot different than previous weeks. I have found myself paying up for QB more often than I have in years past, but this week I will not be paying up for my QB. We have a lot of great options to pay down for, it is just not worth it to pay up. We will be without some of the top options to pay up for and the top options aren’t safe enough for cash, due to matchup and performance.
Cash
I am looking to pay down for my QB this week in cash. Due to injuries to Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater we have two great choice to pay down for.
I wanted to do things a little differently this week. We have two choices to pay down for this weekend, and I haven’t decided which path I wanted to take. We just got news this morning that Taysom Hill was announced as the starter, instead of Jameis Winston. This came to a surprised to most, as I am sure most of us were excited to watch the gunslinger play against a poor Atlanta secondary. Unfortunately, we did not get that lucky and we are stuck with Hill.
Hill provides great rushing upside, as well as, his passing upside. He has only thrown five total passes this season, even though it feels like he has thrown a lot more. Payton came out and said there are no packages featuring Winston this week, so I am expecting Hill to be the QB all game. As a rushing QB for this cheap in a matchup like Atlanta, he might turn into a lock. As long as, Payton isn’t trolling us and they use Winston a bunch.
Atlanta has been one of the worst defenses in the league this season. On top of that, they have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL history. Although, they have played better since firing Dan Quinn, but it still has been bad. Morris has taken the 0-5 Falcons to 3-1. Although, they still have allowed a 300 yard passer in every game, but the Panthers game on Thursday night.
On the other side of the NFC south we have the Carolina Panthers, most likely starting P.J. Walker this weekend. While we don’t have confirmation at this time if Bridgewater is officially out, we can plan for it now. Walker was a stud in the XFL, leading the Houston Roughnecks to a 5-0 record, before the league was shutdown due to Covid-19. Walker hasn’t had a ton to prove yet in the NFL, but this will be his one chance to possibly gain another NFL contract, against a bad Detroit Secondary.
Safe GPP
Alex Smith has been racking up passing yards over the last couple games, he is averaging 357.5 passing yards in two games as a starter. Unfortunately, he has only found the endzone twice, with three interceptions over that stretch. The way Washington plays in the redzone, it appears that Smith may have troubles finding the endzone moving forward. In 87 passing attempts over the last two games, he has yet to attempt a pass in the endzone. While when they get to the redzone, he has attempted 11 passes, with six of those attempts going to running backs. McKissic and Gibson have also combined for nine rushing attempts in the redzone and four inside the 5. Smith would be a much better option and might have cracked my cash lineup if we saw any signs pointing to touchdown upside. Eventually, Washington will pass the ball to the endzone, or score on a deep ball, but as of now he has to stay in the GPP category.
Smith gets an easy matchup against the Bengals, who still can’t find their identity on defense. The Bengals are giving up 22.1 DK points to QBs this season, they have also been losing a majority of games. So that number could be even worse if the game script was different. Washington will probably be losing this game, so 20+ fantasy points for Smith isn’t out of the question. The Bengals still can’t get to the QB, especially after trading Carlos Dunlap and with Geno Atkins not playing. Cincy is getting a pressure on 30% of drop backs, but they are only converting those pressures into sacks 9% of the time. This leading to only 11 sacks on the season. Washington is always known for having a bad offense, but they are moving the ball a lot better now with Smith at QB. They have the WRs to get open if they give Smith enough time in the pocket to find them.
Low Owned GPP
I am willing to take a chance on Lamar Jackson one more time, as long as you have the salary for him. I haven’t played him much this year, but he is going up against a poor Tennessee defense that has given up a lot of yards and points to QBs this season. One of Jackson’s biggest flaws this season has been his inaccuracy to Marquise Brown. This should be a great spot to get himself right back on track to his MVP level of play. Also, never count out his rushing upside. On a slate without many other stud QBs he has the highest ceiling.
Fade:
I am full fading Aaron Rodgers this week. I don’t want to pay up for QB in the first place and Rodgers just has too tough of a matchup to warrant a play for me. He is dealing with a banged up receiving core. Adams and Lazard have been limited in practice this week, but finally practiced in full today. That’s good news for the Packers who finally get a chance to see all their WRs on the field together since week two and potentially the first time they finish a game since week one.
Rodgers has played great this season and is trying to make his way into the MVP conversation. He is averaging 286 passing yards per game, three touchdowns a game, and has only thrown three interceptions this season. Two of which came in the Tampa Bay game, where he just was completely dominated.
The Colts defense has been dominant this season, and proved that last week against the Titans.
Running Backs:
Cash
Even at Dalvin Cook’s high price, he is still popping up as one of the top value plays on the board, according to our projections portal. Cook is in a spot where he should be able to dominate this extremely bad defense for the Cowboys. Cook has been one of the true top runningback workhorses this season. With CMC and Barkley missing a lot of games this season, Cook has secured himself as a top two back in the league.
Cook is looking for a bounce back this weekend after going up against a stout Bears defense. Cook was shutdown all game until Akiem Hicks. He went from being completely shutdown, with 19 carries for 33 yards. Then when Hicks went out, Cook immediately broke off a 36 yard run, finishing with 11 carries for 65 yards. This was what we all expected, but like every player a good defense will be able to shut them down.
The Cowboys have been bleeding yards on the ground all year. They are coming off a bye week, after holding the Steelers to only 49 rushing yards. Before that game they had been giving up 180 rushing yards a game, including three games of over 200, and one game over 300. While the Cowboys have holes in their defense every where. The Vikings love to run the ball, especially against bad defenses. If the Vikings have the lead in the second half, they run at the fifth highest rate in the league, at 68% of their snaps. While running 78% of the time on first and second down during those games. Cook should be fed at a minimum 30 times this week, along with 4-5 targets.
Mike Davis burned fantasy owners last week against the Bucs, but it was a very tough matchup. Luckily, he was cheap enough where he was still a good play and it didn’t sink your lines. Unless you ran him in your early only lines on DK where he was over $6000. Davis has a much easier matchup this week against the Lions, who have been atrocious against running backs this season.
Davis is always an easy choice for me with how involved he is in the passing game. My only issue with this play is if PJ Walker doesn’t get Davis involved the same way Checkdown Teddy did. Davis is one of the top pass catching backs in the league, and continues to see a massive usage rate in the passing game. When CMC when down with an injury there were concerns Davis would see the same work that CMC did, but all those questions have been answered with how well Davis has played. Last week again he saw a five target game. Even while not being the main back in two games this season, he is still third in the league in targets and second in receptions among running backs. Only behind Kamara, who is on pace for 138 targets and 120 receptions. This would break CMC’s record for running backs last year.
Safe GPP
Adrian Peterson should get a majority of the work in the Detroit backfield this weekend. The only reason I don’t want to put him as a cash play is because I am a little concerned they give Kerryon Johnson a bunch of work. Especially as a pass catching back Even though the spot is amazing for running backs, not having the pass catching floor always scares me off running backs for cash. I don’t want a guy who gets 15 carries for 50-60 yards and that is it.
Low Owned GPP
Damien Harris doesn’t have a safe floor without the pass catching floor, but he is the perfect spot to dominate the Texans. They have been awful defending the run this season, and the Patriots have no problem running all game. Harris has looked like the true RB1 this season behind this offensive line.
Fade:
I’m going to be fading Derek Henry this weekend, against a tough Baltimore defense. One of Henry’s glaring issues in fantasy football is his lack of passing catching usage. It isn’t like his hands are bad, they just refuse to use him in the passing game. We have seen in the past, the Titans have no issues just not having him on the field at the end of games if they are losing. The Titans will also be without two of the left offensive lineman. This will not help the running game or passing game. We could see the Titans struggle to get their offense going. If the Ravens take an early lead, they can chew up a lot of clock, plus that will take Henry out of the gameplan.
Wide Receivers:
Cash
Jakobi Meyers has been one of the bright spots in the Patriots passing game. They haven’t been able to get much going in the air since Cam came back form Covid and losing Julian Edelman. Luckily for the Patriots, they found a hidden gem in Meyers. Meyers is averaging 7.5 targets per game over the last four games, this accounting for a 32% target share, one of the tops in the league. This doesn’t mean as much as it would in other offenses, but still, Cam only appears to have eyes for Meyers these days. At only $4.9k he is well worth that price.
Keenan Allen has been extremely consistent all season. Last game we saw a floor game from him and the touchdown bailed us out. Luckily, that was one of the toughest matchup he will see all season. Allen hasn’t been a big touchdown upside in his career, but he is on a stretch of three games of touchdowns so I’m not expecting one this weekend.
Allen has seen a consistent target share every game, and coming off a floor game I’m going right back to him.
Safe GPP
Terry McLaurin has really profited from the change of QB. My main issue is the lack of touchdown upside that Alex smith provides. Unless he is throwing a big throw, there isn’t much touchdown equity in the Washington passing game. The Bengals have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league and he is the perfect pairing with Alex Smith and Logan Thomas. You can run it back with Tee Higgins and Gio.
Low Owned GPP
Dionate Johnson has been consistently performing the weeks he has been healthy. Johnson has five games of 10+ targets this season, and is performing for his off-season hype train. He gets the Jaguars this week, which has been one of the worst defenses in the league. We have seen even in blowout the Steelers pass game has been terrific. Conner has not played well, leading to forcing the Steelers to continue to pas, even in blowouts.
Fade:
I feels weird fading Davante Adams this weekend, but if it is the perfect time to hop of the Davante Adams bandwagon, then now is the time to do it. He has been unsustainably efficient this season, not only that, we will see Allen Lazard back in the lineup for the Packers. Adams was fed target after target, because Rodgers had very little trust in anyone outside of him to catch the ball. For this reason, Rodgers looked Adams way every play, because, well, he was open all the time. Teams refused to double team him, and he took it as disrespect, leading to more motivation to perform at his peak.
He will be going up against an amazing Colts secondary that has proved they are legit. I had questions about they going into last week, how legit they actually were. With King and Alexander back for the Packers, both defenses should be playing at the top of the games, leading to a potentially sub 40 point game, with not many fantasy points to go around.
