What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position. This is more of a first look because it is coming out on a Friday and the weekend can always bring change, especially in the Covid-19 era, we continuously have the slate turned upside down on Saturday morning. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t singed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!
| QBs: | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: |
| K Murray | M Davis | D Adams | D Waller | Ari/Buf |
| J Allen | A Jones | K Allen | D Goedert | SEA/LAR |
| J Goff | D Johnson | J Reynolds | E Engram | LAC/MIA |
| B Mayfield | C Edmonds | J Landry | E Ebron | HOU/CLE |
| R Wilson | A Kamara | T Boyd | R Tonyan | CIN/PIT |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
We have a couple great options to pay up for this weekend. I have found myself paying up for QB more often than I have in years past. The ceiling in the top tier is just miles above anything below them. Last year, I tried to pay down as low as possible. QB fantasy points had such a low standard deviation that it was never worth it to me to pay $1000 more in salary when they were staying within one or two fantasy points of each other.
Cash
I am looking to pay up for both my cash plays this weekend. Unless I choose to move down to Jared Goff to fit someone I really want in my cash line.
Kyler Murray has been playing at a historic rate for fantasy QBs. It is not all about is passing upside either, he is averaging 12.7 out of his 31.4 fantasy points on the ground. He would be the RB11 among running backs that have played at least 5 games this season. Murray is becoming the CMC of last year. He was a WR1 and RB1, if you split the two stats. Now Murray is an RB11 and QB17 if you split up the stats. When you add them together you get the QB1.
Murray will be going up the Bills, who play man defense a majority of the time. This will lead to a lot more scrambling opportunities for Murray. He has proven to be a much better runner than Lamar Jackson. This should increase his already massive rushing floor. There are no issues playing Murray naked (Without WRs) because of hos rushing upside. You don’t need to force the Deandre Hopkins play either. I am more interested on the Bills passing game than the Cardinals. I am mostly playing Murray to get his rushing upside. Any passing is just bonus.
Josh Allen is in the same boat as Murray. They both provide massive rushing upside to create the perfect cash plays each week. I am predicting this game to turn into a potential shootout. I love this game stack. I am fine with playing either guy, if you need the extra $500 pay down to Allen, if you don’t just go up to Murray.
He has played 10x better with John Brown this season compared to without him. After starting the season towards the top of the MVP conversation, especially the fantasy MVP conversation. He trailed only Dak Prescott in fantasy points over the first four weeks, averaging 33.8 fantasy points per game and 0.83 fantasy points per drop back. After John Brown went down with an injury in week 5, weeks 5-8 while Brown was out or still not 100%. Allen was QB13 averaging 17.6 fantasy points. It looks like John Brown is healthy again and Allen is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season 39.0.
Safe GPP
I might end up moving Jared Goff as my cash play of the week, but I am a little nervous at how well Dunlap and Adams were able to apply pressure. This is something the Seahawks have been lacking. Which has led to the worst pass defense in NFL history, in terms of yards. I have no issues moving him into your cash lines, if you want to save some salary, compared to Murray and Allen. Although, we save so much salary at running back this week that you don’t have to, which is one of the main reasons I don’t have him in my cash pool currently.
Goff has had his ups and downs like every QB this season. He is averaging 268.1 passing yards per game, while throwing 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has struggled with his completion %, with an adjusted completion % of 77.3%, ranking middle of the pack. Surprisingly, we have seen a flip in his home road splits this season. At home, Goff is averaging; 231.7 yards, one touchdown, and 0.3 interceptions a game. While putting up 13.36 fantasy points per game. Compared to him on the road averaging; 290.0 yards, two touchdowns and one interception per game. While putting up 17.9 fantasy points per game. He has only cracked the top five in a given week because of a 300 yard bonus and a rushing touchdown. Rushing upside has become so vital in fantasy, I have found myself paying up more for the rushing floor in cash.
Luckily, he gets the easiest matchup for a QB this season. We could see some decreased ownership after Jimmy G screwed over the chalk a couple weeks ago. People tend to carry their bias too much in DFS. Seattle is allowing 9.48 fantasy points above average to QBs this season, according to our Team Matchups page. Seattle continues to get into shootouts every week, with their awful defense. With Goff’s streak of bad play, we could see this not turn into a shootout, similar to what happened into the 49ers game. With the addition of Dunlap and Adams applying pressure it could end up getting to Goff, causes troubles.
Low Owned GPP
Baker Mayfield has the perfect opportunity to show the world why he was the number one pick in the 2018 draft. He has lost his top option, Odell Beckham Jr, to an ACL tear. Baker hasn’t shown much with Odell out, last game he only had 7.8 fantasy points and he only is averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game on the season. Which is one of the worst among QBs this season. People aren’t going to want to play Baker, but he is my favorite GPP play of the slate. He is coming in at a projected 3% ownership and we might get him less than that.
Houston is the worst defense in the league against QBs. Not for fantasy, while they are giving up the 29th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, but just the performances. Houston is giving up a season high rating for QBs of 120, this is higher than MVP candidates like, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Maholmes. They even let Jake Luton go for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. They are allowing a league low 0.2 interceptions a game, 69.2% completion percentage, 256.3 passing yards per game, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and only a sack 6% of the time. Baker should have an easy time picking apart this defense, just like every other QB they have faced this season.
Fade:
I can’t believe I am putting Russell Wilson in my fade category, but here we are. THIS IS ONLY IF CARSON IS OUT. He has not practice all week, so I might have to more him into more of a GPP play. We also have Murray, Allen, and Aaron Rodgers to pay up for. Russ becomes the odd man out of these four guys to pay up for. I am playing all three of those guys before Russ and it has nothing to do with his bad game last week. He was also going to be a fade for me last week, if Carson was ruled in.
If Chris Carson is ruled out again, I am moving my fade to Jake Luton. PLEASE DON’T CHASE. I mentioned how bad Houston’s defense is in Baker’s section.
Running Backs:
Cash
With Christian McCaffrey officially ruled out, we can go all in on Mike Davis. For some reason DraftKings decided to price Davis down to $4000, when CMC was back for one week, with high injury risk. This is a play you shouldn’t overthink. The matchup is tough for running backs, but that doesn’t matter with his high receptions floor.
With Christian McCaffrey out during weeks 3-8, Davis was the RB4, averaging 17.65 fantasy points per game. He was second in targets and receptions, only trailing Alvin Kamara. He was even 13th in the league among WRs and RBs in receptions during this time. He averaged five receptions and 28 yards per game. That puts him at 7.8 fantasy points just from receiving upside outside of touchdowns. We have been happy with 7.8 fantasy points from a running back at $4000 and that is just from receiving minus touchdowns. The one downside of Davis is the lack of opportunity to receive a 100 yard bonus this week, but at $4000 it doesn’t matter. Just don’t over think this amazing play. He might be 100% owned in cash this week.
Aaron Jones has been one of the top backs in the league this season. What seemed like unsustainable touchdown upside has continued this season. This is what happens when the Packers have a high-powered offense, but Rodgers only trusts a couple guys on his team.
Jones gets the Jaguars that have been awful against running backs this season. They are giving up the 27th most fantasy points to running backs this season, and Jones comes in as the third best runningback for fantasy on the season, averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game. According to the Team Matchups Page the Jaguars are allowing 10.48 more fantasy points than the average, which ranks second.
Jacksonville is around the middle of the pack, allowing 1.42 yards before contact, while the Packers only average 1.39 yards before first contact. Where Jones makes a majority of his impact is in the red zone, Jones leads all RBs in red zone targets, while only playing six games, he also ranks top 10 in carries in the red zone with 3.0 per game. Jacksonville is giving up the fourth most carries inside the 5 this season with 18, and allowing 56% of those carries to turn into touchdowns. As long as Rodgers doesn’t throw a PA on the one, Jones should be instore for huge touchdown upside.
Safe GPP
Duke Johnson is way too cheap if David Johnson gets ruled out. I am not sure if I want to pay down for both running backs in cash, but Johnson is in a great spot to hit value. I wouldn’t touch him over Davis unless you are making a milly lineup. Both provide great value if you are looking to pay up for WRs in GPPs. I just don’t see myself fading Jones in cash, because he could easily break the slate, especially with Weather concerns.
The Browns have been decent against running backs this season, allowing 0.43 less fantasy points than the average opponent to running backs. It is the passing catching upside from Johnson that I like. Duke has never taken a workhorse role and has mainly been a pass catching back, if the Texans find themselves down in this game and the pressure gets to Watson, look for several dump offs to Johnson. He is basically a worse version of the starter, David Johnson.
Low Owned GPP
Chase Edmonds is coming off an amazing game, even though the stats don’t show a huge game from him. He is also coming in at a projected 6.5% ownership, which would probably be higher if saw the end zone last week. That is the problem playing alongside Murray, he steals a lot of rushing touchdowns. Last week we saw Edmonds on the field for 66 of the 69 offensive snaps for the Cardinals, turning into a true workhorse back. Part of me wants to play him in cash this week as a low owned pivot. I did that with Drew Lock last week and it paid off. Don’t be afraid to get a little weird in one or two spots to really separate yourself from the chalk. NFL DFS is so chalky these days, I hate playing cash games sometimes.
Edmonds ran a route on on 73% of Murray’s drop backs last week. I believe that Edmonds is the better back than Drake and he has the perfect opportunity to show it this weekend. He touched the ball 28 times last week, which was tied for first with Christian McCaffrey. They fed Edmonds 25 rushing attempts in a game he wasn’t playing well, only accumulating only 70 rushing yards. He gets a much easier matchup against a spotty Buffalo run defense. He should be able to find the end zone in a potential shootout. As long as, Drake doesn’t play he is one of my favorite plays of the week. I would have him locked into my cash line if it wasn’t for Davis being $4000.
Fade:
With Michael Thomas back, Alvin Kamara is too over priced for me. We got to take advantage of a Saints offense lacking a majority of play makers early on in the season. With Brees’ aversion to passing downfield, that gave Kamara a high target floor. This made him one of the best fantasy backs in the league. With Thomas and Sanders healthy now, he will take a backseat for receptions making him a bad play at his price. He can still hit value, but you are relying on a couple touchdowns, which he can do, just highly unlikely to happen. There are just better plays at that price.
Wide Receivers:
Cash
Davante Adams has been locked in every game this season. Adams has been fully healthy in only five games this season. He has 10+ targets in every one of those games. He has 64 targets, 50 receptions, 639 yards, 8 touchdowns, 170.9 fantasy points, 3.42 points per touch, and 0.57 fantasy points per snap. That is 34.18 fantasy points per game, ranking first among all positions, even QB. Only two other WRs broke 100 fantasy points during that 5 game stretch and Adams had 170 fantasy points. Adams is running a route on 95% of Rodgers drop backs, and has a 35% target share. He’s catching 40% of Rodgers completions, accounting for 42% of Rodgers passing yards, and accounting for 63% of the passing touchdowns, in the five full games he played this season. This passing offense is basically only Davante Adams.
These numbers seem unsustainable, but in an offense that is this high-powered, he is one of the only guys Rodgers actually trusts. I feel like he is playing madden and just force feeding one guy all game, like I am sure we all do. He is basically putting up video game numbers and I love it. The only thing stopping him is the potential bad weather, but we all know Rodgers is used to the snow, so he should have no issues. Depending how bad the snow is or how long it lasts, it could make for more favorable conditions for the offensive players.
Adams gets one of the easiest matchups of the week, against Sydney Jones who is allowing 1.83 yards per route covered and a target on 20% of his routes covered, according to the WR/CB matchup chart.
Keenan Allen has really prospered with Justin Herbert as his QB this season. He finally has an extremely valuable QB for fantasy. There was worry coming into the season, with Tyrod as his QB, he wasn’t going to provide much value. This was obvious, Taylor was never a guy that was going to light up the stat sheet with 300 yard games. Herbert is currently third in the league in passing yards per game, only behind Russ and Dak. It appears Herbert has two reads, throw it deep or throw it to Allen darting across the field for an easy 10 yard gain.
Allen is currently 5th in the league in WR fantasy points per game with 19.9, he has never scored under 10 since Herbert took over the starting QB job. He is third in the league in targets this season, second in receptions, 10th in yards, he has a 76.5% catch %, with an aDOT of 8.09 yards, and 4.66 yards after reception. As we can see, Allen is more of a volume guy, than a big play maker.
According to Karma’s WR/CB matchup chart, Allen also has one of the easier matchups of the week. He should be lined up against Nik Needham a majority of the game, who is allowing 1.31 yards per route covered, a target on 15% of his routes covered, and 0.24 fantasy points per route. Which is low because he has yet to allow a touchdown.
Safe GPP
Josh Reynolds has emerged as a fantasy sleeper the past couple weeks. We get him in an amazing spot against the Seahawks. Seattle gives up 24.18 more fantasy points than average to WRs. This means there a lot of fantasy points to be had for the Rams. Reynolds as only $3,500 and will probably end up in my cash line by Sunday as the community gains interest in him.
Reynolds has six straight games with 4+ targets and 8+ in back-to-back games. If Reynolds is able to get 8+ targets against the Seahawks he will be instore for a huge game. Rams should be either losing this game or have the game turn into a shootout leading to a lot of opportunities for Reynolds. They like to get the TEs involved but this is a WR game for the Rams. Kupp and Woods are also amazing Safe GPP plays, but I went with the cheap option.
Low Owned GPP
Jarvis Landry is a great pairing with Baker as a low owned QB/WR stack. Landry is the main guy in Cleveland without OBJ. Houston has not been able to defend against passers all season and Landry should be able to run the slot to find mismatches all game. Landry was fed 11 targets last week against the Raiders in really bad weather. There is a chance the weather is bad again this weekend, which could lead to another 10+ low aDOT target week. Landry will be the safety valve for Baker sort of like Allen is for Herbert. If Baker can’t take shots downfield look for Landry to have a huge game.
Fade:
Tyler Boyd has been fantastic this year, but I don’t trust him in the matchup against the best defense in the league in Pittsburgh. “Blitzburgh” should have their way with this really bad line for the Bengals. As long as Boyd doesn’t get some garbage time yards or touchdowns he will have a rough game. Pittsburgh played down to their competition last week, but don’t use that as fuel saying if Gilbert can do well Burrow will too. Pitt overlooked Dallas like they always overlooked easy opponents. I am expecting Pitt to go back to their ways and limit all of the Bengals offense.
