What’s up DFS Grinders to another edition of my Monday Night Showdown throwdown article. We have a fun divisional battle between the Lions and the Packers.
Vegas Odds
The Packers are 4 point favorites at home against the Lions with a 47 point game total.
MVP Tier
Aaron Jones: The only issue with this play is that Jamal Williams is back but I still like the play. The thing is he still only saw a 66% snap rate. So even with Williams out Carson was still involved and Jones saw a similar snap rate so hope the news of Williams coming back will keep the recency ownership back down. The Lions are allowing a hundred rushing yards per game and with Packers favorited in the game so according to vegas Jones should have a high usage rate.
Kerryon Johnson: I love running Johnson in MVP and running it back with a Packers passing attack stack. The Packers really struggle against the run but you need to know how to go about playing Johnson to get the game stack correct. They won’t be able to run the ball a ton if they are losing so you need to stack it to maximize positive game script and that goes with stacking the passing attack of the Packers with one more Lion I like running it with a WR (Jones or Golladay) for the max upside. With the Cowboys losing they weren’t able to maximize the use of Zeke so Dak was required to throw limiting Zeke’s rushing upside. The Packers really struggle on the run but the opposing team needs to be winning to run the ball more, which seems obvious but people struggle with the game script game theory portion of it. Another thing I love is that Johnson is actually 5th in the league in air yards. I know that really doesn’t mean much with RBs as much as them being able to create after the catch but that just shows how he actually is running routes and is involved in the passing attack.
Both QBs: Obviously both QBs are in play every slate but we don’t always need to play them for a takedown. QBs have that safe floor needed to help with those cash games but this is one of the slates where you can fade one or both depending on how roster construction goes and game theory approach is. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been as good without Adams and with the projected positive game script for the Packers, I’m fine with fading him in your optimal lines and rolling Stafford instead. Even though no QB before Dak got over 300 yards we have seen there is a chance with negative game script to take advantage of the QB is good enough.
Middle Tier
Kenny Golladay Vs Marvin Jones: Yes this can be a little tough of a decision sometimes it seems random, but I’m leaning Golladay. According to PFF Jones is predicted to see Jaire and Golladay is projected to see King. Which deciding based on matchup alone I’m leaning Golladay, Jaire has been a shutdown corner all year besides Cooper getting the best of him last week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: I’m still going to ride the wave of MVS with Adams out. Even though he has let us all down the past two weeks his potential to shine is still there. Over the past two weeks, MVS is averaging 98.5 air yards which is 15th. He is also second in the league over that span in aDOT for players with 5 or more targets with 17.9. He also has a .33 RACR which is 4th lowest with WRs of 10 targets or more. Similar players 1)OBJ: 6 catches 101 yards, 2) Samuel: 4 catches 70 yards and 2 TDs 3): Demarcus Robinson 4 targets 0 catches (Tyreek Hill was back). This is a great model to look at to see opportunity being there just need to connect.
TJ Hockenson: He bursted on the scene week one with 9 targets 6 catches 131 yards and a touchdown, but that was against the Arizona who we know can’t defend against TE for shit. After the next 3 games, he only has 10 targets 6 catches 35 yards and 1 touchdown. Not great numbers and would lead you to believe week 1 was a smash spot fluke game, which to an extent is true but still, we need to take advantage of spots when we can. Hock has a road to ceiling he has a 5 inch and 50 pound advantage in his matchup tonight. He is a risk I’m willing to take a chance on time with the PAckers really not being exposed to a good TE yet this year so the TE numbers are a little lopsided.
Cheap Tier
There is not a ton of cheap value tonight but on DK you can look at kickers and defense in what should be a lower scoring game. I love the Packers D if you need and kickers.
Jamal Williams: Williams is getting back tonight after an exemtrely scary hit. The Packers refuse to give Jones a full workload even giving Tre Carson a 33% snap rate. Williams is too cheap tonight with the upside he provides which is something you always need to look at in showdown slates.
Props
Props are what I’m known for at Karma and I’ve made my most money in the Fantasy industry playing props. It’s a safer use of your money playing “cash” type props than playing 50/50s on FD/DK for single game especially. Normally I like to play some safe props than play some GPPs on FD/DK.
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