Joey’s Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown (Primetime Slate Special)
What’s up grinders! I hope you enjoyed opening Sunday of the week one slate. Just like last year, we have a two-game special for Monday Night Football so not only do we have the showdown slate but we have a two-game primetime slate. There is going to be one amazing high scoring game which is the chalk stack, then the rough division game between the Raiders and the Broncos which will have less ownership but will be how you take down the tournaments. You have to find value in that game.
Vegas Lines
On Thursday Night Football we were 2-1 let’s continue this winning nights here. Previous bets: game Total under, Packers team total under, Bears -3.
The Saints are favored at home against the Texans by 6.5 points with a 52 point game total.
The Broncos are favored on the road against the Raiders by 2.5 points in a 42 point game total.
Favorite bets: Saints Texans over 52, and Broncos Raiders Under 42.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson: (Prop Projection: 23.5) Watson is the obvious top play on the board. You will see a trend with this game being mentioned a bunch in this article. We are also in a Dome which leads to higher-scoring games. Watson, Hopkins, and Fuller have played together a total of 11 games in two years together. In those games Watson has thrown 30 TD passes while the Texans average 30.8 points per game.
Drew Brees: (Prop Projection: 20.5) Brees could easily be the highest scoring QB on the slate tonight. The is an implied 4 TDs for the Saints which they could easily go over in a dome shootout. Brees started last season and as the season moved on he lost a lot of stream. He should be at the top of his game to start the year again.
Derek Carr: (Prop Projection: 16.5): although I like some weapons around him he’s a Fade for me tonight. There’s enough value where you can just pay up for QB and be fine especially in cash. Fun stack is Richard Waller and Renfrow with the Tyrell fade to get an edge on the field. We could see a lot of dump offs with Broncos getting a lot of pressure on Carr.
Joe Flacco: (Prop Projection: 15.5): Fade unless you stack the offense for a low owned GPP stack. Mini Stack with Sanders.
Taysom Hill: If you are a certified crazy person sure play him. I guess he could technically get you two TDs but you are getting a floor of zero for very little upside.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the top overall play on the entire slate. He has the top odds to score a TD tonight and with his pass catching ability he has the highest floor and ceiling on the slate. Should be a staple of all cash lineups.
Phillip Lindsay: High upside play with projected positive game script perfectly fine with GPPs but avoiding in cash games.
Josh Jacobs: It looks like Jacobs will see the majority of the touches for the Raiders at running back this year. He has a safe floor with Broncos being iffy on run defense. I would rather have the passing game with the Broncos playing from behind. I’m fading him on a small slate to get leverage on the field.
Duke Johnson: High volume and should be plenty in Volvo’s in the passing game. If you want a Texans running back he is an amazing play. He will be heavily involved in the passing game especially if Coutee misses. We have seen a couple RBs already get a bunch of slot work so Duke could be another one.
Latavius Murray: I think you have to play either Murray or Kamara tonight. Murray is the perfect GPP pivot off Kamara. Murray is expected to take Ingram role.
Royce Freeman: There’s a predicted snap share i this offense of close to 50%. Lindsay is definitely the better back and the more efficient runner but don’t count Freeman out. He’s a high leverage play with similar touchdown odds. He could see 10-12 touches and pay off salary at very low ownership.
Carlos Hyde: If I’m getting a running back on the Texans it’s Duke. Saints were one of the best running defenses in the league and Hyde has barely had time to learn the offense. Behind a shit offensive line he is a full fade for me tonight.
Jalen Richard: The greatest full PPR punt low owned cheap play every small slate. I try to fit him in my lineup every time the Raiders have a primetime game. He has a 5 target floor basically every game and the upside is amazing. He finished 7th in the league in targets for a running back which at that price he could be the best value on the slate.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: Both these WRs are playable but sometimes you can only fit one in your lineup especially with Kamara. In cash I’m looking at Hopkins who has the higher floor but definitely has the Hawks ceiling as Thomas.
Michael Thomas: He’s my GPP option right next to Hopkins. You can fit both in cash but I would make sure to have Thomas in a GPP if you don’t have him in cash. His ceiling is off the charts and is the perfect stack with Brees. You can roster construction a couple ways, I find fading Kamara works pretty well to correlate a break the slate ceiling game from Thomas. Pair him in a stack of Brees and Smith for a great upside stack with a chalk fade of Kamara. That’s one of my favorite GPP stacks, you can get a high owned stack with unique upside fading Kamara.
Antonio Brown: Top WR in the league but he’s a full fade for me tonight????????
Will Fuller: Fuller is the poster child of all or nothing type player. He has had one of the highest catch to touchdown ratio in the league the past two years. He regressed some last year but still posted huge numbers in low targets. Fade for cash because his floor is too low but is the perfect GPP play.
Keke Coutee: He’s in the perfect spot tonight but Saints struggle out of he slot with PJ Williams who allowed bottom 10 numbers out of the slot. If stills wasn’t around and no injury designation I would say he’s a lock for tonight but he scares me and is a wait and see candidate depending on news.
Emmanuel Sanders: I’m going with Sanders as my favorite bronco tonight. He is coming off an Avillee year but during preseason he looks as explosive as ever and show solidly his spot
Tyrell Williams: Williams will probably see the highest ownership at this price range. He proved last year that he could be a threat for big fantasy outputs. With AB gone he will see an increase in volume but the lack of deep ball from Carr could cap his upside.
DeAndre Carter: Only really in my if Coutee is out. He could see a couple targets and more of a showdown play. Not much upside in primetime unless he finds the end zone. Renfrow is the safer option.
Hunter Renfrow: With no AB Renfrow should slide into the starting lineup and see enough targets to hit value. At min price he should be one of the center pieces of you cash lineups
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: Here is my top TE tonight and the perfect one off to fit all the Texans/Saints you can. Again without AB there’s a lot more targets to go around and the way Cook was used last year we could see a similar ceiling for him. I love targeting the Broncos with TEs he should have a big game and love the over on PrizePicks at 8.6.
Defense
Broncos Rank 2: This is the safe play, but also the most expensive defense (best matchup). This should be a low scoring game and Raiders have a lot of question marks on offense. They should be able to control game script and the safest play if you can afford them.
Saints Rank 1: First, let me start off by saying the Texans offensive line sucks. They allowed the Texans allowed the most sacks at 3.8 per game that total increase to 4 on the road. I don’t like stacking a QB and a defense but in a small slate, you have to make some sacrifices sometimes. The Saints ranked 4 in the league in pressure ranking per PFF. Teams that ranked top 10 in pressure rankings averaged 4.2 sacks per game. More pressures lead to more rushed throws which lead to turnovers!
Texans Rank 4: Going up against one of the top offenses in the league with little sack and turnover upside on the road. Plus road dogs with a high total I’ll stay away.
Raiders Rank 3: Cheapest defense as a home team in a low team total. Perfectly fine for a punt but don’t expect much from the worst team at pressuring the QBs and have very little turnover upside. If they are able to hold the Broncos to less than 2 TDs they can pay off value here.
Props!
I found an easy one for y’all!!! Have fun! You can make this you cash play of the day then throw a bunch of GPP lines in so you can forget about the cash lineup and have fun.
