What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. I hope you had an amazing week 11. Let’s cap things off week 11 with tons of green on this Monday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play, then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out! Monkeyknifefight and Prizepicks, Promo code: KARMA, these sites have been around for a couple years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites hop in our Discord and message me. Our NFL Core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays! What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier. This is similar to FanDuel, but the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x but the MVP spot on FanDuel does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and less ties for DraftKings as compared to FanDuel. This is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings, you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas totals
The Buccaneers are 4-point favorites tonight against the Rams. With a 48.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
The Buccaneers and the Rams have faced off seven times the last decade. The Buccaneers are 2-5 over that time but the Buccaneers are looking for their second straight win against the Rams. The Buccaneers are 1-6 against the spread, and the game has gone over three times.
09/29/19: Buccaneers: 55 Rams: 40 Buccaneers Spread: +9.0 O/U: 48.5
09/25/16: Buccaneers: 32 Rams: 37 Buccaneers Spread: -3.5 O/U: 40.5
12/17/15: Buccaneers: 23 Rams: 31 Buccaneers Spread: +1.0 O/U: 41.5
09/14/14: Buccaneers: 17 Rams: 19 Buccaneers Spread: -4.5 O/U: 37.5
12/22/13: Buccaneers: 13 Rams: 23 Buccaneers Spread: +3.5 O/U: 43.0
12/23/12: Buccaneers: 13 Rams: 28 Buccaneers Spread: -3.0 O/U: 43.5
10/24/10: Buccaneers: 18 Rams: 17 Buccaneers Spread: -3.0 O/U: 39.0
Quarterbacks
In Antonio Brown’s first game for the Buccaneers, Tom Brady struggled to move the ball around the field. The Bucs may have been more trying to get Brown better suited into the offense, than prep for the game against the Saints. The game after, Brady threw for 341 passing yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. It seems the Saints have Brady’s number; he averages 224 passing yards, one touchdown, and 2.5 interceptions in two games against the Saints. In the remaining eight games, Brady averaged; 286.4 passing yards, 2.6 touchdowns, 0.25 interceptions per game. Needless to say, it seems like the Saints understood exactly how to stop Brady.
The Rams have been one of the best defenses in the league this year, and it all starts with their front 7. They apply pressure on 33% of drop backs and convert those pressures into sacks 19% of the time. Both of which are top 10 in their categories. The Rams also rank in the top 10 in allowing, plays run per game, yards per play, net passing yards per attempt, and score %. This defense is tough to get much going on. The Bucs defense is also very good, which I will touch on in Goff’s section. We could easily see a defensive battle tonight.
Jared Goff has had his ups and downs this season. He has had difficulty finding his rhythm. Going from great games to awful games. Even though Goff is 2-1 in primetime games, they haven’t been because he had a great game. In fact, the later the game the worse he has performed this season. In 1 pm games, he is averaging 313 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. In 4 pm games, he is averaging 251 passing yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. In primetime games, he is averaging 231 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions a game. On top of that, his yards per attempt drop about one yard each later game. I never really thought Goff was a very good QB, and the primetime games are where he has played good teams this season. So, it makes sense he performs worse in those games.
The Bucs defense has been just as good as the Rams defense. Tonight’s matchup will be featuring two top 5 defenses in the league. They will also be featuring two top 10 offenses in the league, but the defense will more than likely prevail in this game. The Bucs apply pressure on 30% of drop backs and convert those pressures into sacks 12% of the time. They also are top 10 in allowing, plays run per game, yards per play, net passing yards per attempt, and score %. The only issue with potentially fading Goff tonight is the ground game has been bad for the Rams, and they are going against the best run defense in the league. So, if the Rams find themselves trailing, Goff is going to have to pass the ball a lot. Which will either lead to a ceiling game for Goff, or a ton of yards, one or two touchdowns, and two or three turnovers. This would lead to the receiving options being the better option.
Running backs
I am looking to avoid the Rams running game tonight. As potential underdogs, the game script will not be in their favor. Plus, the Bucs have one of the best, if not the best rush defense in the league. On top of all that, you aren’t 100% sure who the main ball carrier for the Rams will be tonight. McVay has been tough to predict with that.
Diving the breakdown of running back and snaps and usage, I would say Malcolm Brown is your safest bet. He runs the most routes of the three and gets work in the red zone. Cam Akers provides a majority of his work in the running game and rarely working his way into the passing game. Then Darrell Henderson is the do it all back, who gets even work in the run game and passing game. Based on this, I would fade Akers, due to having a little role in the passing game, against the best run defense in the league. Brown provides the most value, as he should be used heavily in the second half of the Rams are down early. Then Henderson is more of the wildcard, he has the talent, but he shouldn’t have as many opportunities to rack up fantasy points as Brown does.
On the other side of the ball, we have a less frustrating, but still frustrating backfield to deal with. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have been back and forth this season with how well they have played. The Bucs seem to run the hot hand more than often. One of the reasons in showdowns I prefer to go with the cheaper option. DraftKings has made Jones way too expensive. Jones has played well, but not much better than Fournette has. We could easily see Founette take over as RB1 this game. There is just no sure way of knowing who takes the reigns. As someone who only plays one lineup, this leads me to fade Rojo.
Bucs Pass Catchers
The addition of Antonio Brown to the Bucs offense, adds a layer of unpredictability to this offense. Concentrated usage rate is something we love in DFS, but it makes for some interesting spreads in ownership. We have four main guys for the Bucs to choose from, and I am most likely fading Mike Evans.
Evans has the hardest matchup of the four, with the expectation that Ramsey is on Evans for a majority of the game. This is a matchup I would like to avoid tonight, especially with Brady’s other weapons there is no need to force it to him. If you want to play Evans, you are looking more at his end zone and red zone work. The once deep threat is becoming Brady’s favorite target inside the red zone. He has been targeted on 12 of Brady’s 18 red zone attempts, over the last three games. While having six of Brady’s seven end zone targets over the last three games as well.
Chris Godwin has been moved more and more into the slot since AB joined the team. Godwin gets matched up on Troy Hill tonight, who is the worst of the three corners for the Rams. He is allowing a catch on 75% of his targets, 1.16 yards per route covered, 0.23 fantasy points per route covered, and a target on 16% of his routes covered. Godwin saw six targets last week, hauling in all six of them for 92 yards. I am expecting similar production from him tonight, as Godwin is one of my top plays on the board.
Rams Pass Catchers
It appears Josh Reynolds has seen an increase in workload the past couple of weeks, making him one of the top plays on the board. The Rams will most likely be trailing most of the game, which means Goff should throw upwards of 40-45 times this game. Without the help of the run game tonight, I will be looking heavily into stacking two or three pass catchers for the Rams. The main issue for Reynolds tonight is he has the toughest matchup for the Rams. While Robert woods and Cooper Kupp get to enjoy working out of the slot a lot, Reynolds is stuck on the outside. He has to deal with Jamal Dean and Carleton Davis all game, two of the best outside corners this season.
Choosing between Kupp and Woods is tough. I prefer to target the Bucs in the slot because their outside corners are both two of the best in the league. While their slot corner is just average. That is what we have to look for on a tough defense like the Bucs. Over the last three games, Woods is third on the team in targets. Kupp has 31 targets, Reynolds has 26 targets, while Woods only has 18 targets. Reynolds aDOT is the highest among the three as well, with 12.12, compared to 6.87 for Kupp and 5.94 for Woods. Since Woods isn’t getting enough targets and has the lowest aDOT and target share of the three I lean Kupp, then Reynolds, then finally Woods as my Rams WR tiers.
