What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown article. I hope you had an amazing week 9. Let’s cap off off week 9 with tons of green on this Monday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play, then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out! MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks, Promo code: KARMA, these sites have been around for a couple years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites hop in our Discord and message me. Our NFL Core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays! What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier. This is similar to FanDuel, but the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x but the MVP spot on FanDuel does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and less ties for DraftKings as compared to FanDuel. This is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings, you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas totals
The Patriots are 9.5-point favorites tonight against the Jets. With a 41.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
The Patriots and the Jets face off two a year, being from the same division. The Patriots have owned this matchup for the past decade, but this is a new look Patriots team. New England is 9-1 in the last team meetings, 5-4-1 against the spread, and the game has gone over only 3 times.
10/21/19: Patriots: 33 Jets: 0 Patriots Spread: -9.5 O/U: 43.0
09/22/19: Patriots: 30 Jets: 14 Patriots Spread: -21.0 O/U: 43.0
12/30/18: Patriots: 38 Jets: 3 Patriots Spread: -14.0 O/U: 46.5
11/25/18: Patriots: 27 Jets: 13 Patriots Spread: -13.0 O/U: 47.0
12/31/17: Patriots: 26 Jets: 06 Patriots Spread: -16.5 O/U: 42.5
10/15/17: Patriots: 24 Jets: 17 Patriots Spread: -9.0 O/U: 48.5
12/24/16: Patriots: 41 Jets: 03 Patriots Spread: -17.0 O/U: 45.0
11/27/16: Patriots: 22 Jets: 17 Patriots Spread: -9.5 O/U: 48.0
12/27/15: Patriots: 20 Jets: 26 Patriots Spread: -2.5 O/U: 45.5
10/25/15: Patriots: 30 Jets: 23 Patriots Spread: -7.0 O/U: 47.0
Quarterbacks
Covid Cam
The Patriots thought they had a hidden gem in Cam Newton, he started the season proving the doubters wrong. The Patriots were 2-1 with Cam as a starter, with him averaging 238 passing yards, 49.7 rushing yards, and six total touchdowns, including four rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, this success was short lived, Cam ended up contracting Covid and the Patriots just haven’t been the same since. The Patriots are now 0-3, over the last three games, correlating with Cam’s return, the Patriots are averaging 13.0 PPG, third worst, and 292.7 yards per game, ranking 5th worst. Covid Cam has not been the same as pre-covid Cam. The Patriots need this win to salvage their season, or might have to go into full Tank mode. This seems like a spot where we see Belicheck pull out all the tricks and run up the score on the Jets. For this reason, Cam will be in a majority of my lines tonight. That on top of the fact he has tremendous rushing upside. He has the highest floor and ceiling on the slate.
Joe Flaccid
Sam Darnold is sidelined after reaggravating his shoulder injury from earlier in the season. This will give Flacco his third start of the season tonight. Flacco has not preformed to what we saw earlier in his career. In his two starts, he is averaging 190.5 passing yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions. He only put up a total of ten points combined between both starts. Those two starts came against two top ten scoring defenses in the league. Tonight’s he gets the Patriots, who are allowing 25.0 points per game, ranking 12th best in the league. This is a little easier matchup, but as a 9.5-point underdog, the Jets aren’t expected to come close to that 25.0 average.
Joe Flacco will get the benefit of negative game script tonight, but this may favor his receivers more than him. Even with garbage time he may not find the touchdowns more than once tonight. The Patriots are only allowing 60% of their yards over the air, most likely due to game script. Last year, the Patriots were one of the best defenses in the league, but with all the opt outs and the loss of Stephon Gilmore this could be a spot to take advantage of. They are allowing the most yards per completion with 12.14 yards. We could see the flaws on their passing defense get even worse with Gilmore sidelined for another game.
Running backs
Running back Rotation
The Patriots have always been difficult to predict running back fantasy production. Now, adding Cam to the mix makes it even more difficult, but let’s see if we can sort through the mess.
Damien Harris rejoined the team after being on the IR in week 4. Since then he has two 100-yard rushing games, but only has two targets during that four-game stretch. That is not a floor you want from your running back. Although, with the Patriots as a 9.5-point favorite, game script favors Harris the most out of the running backs. New England also has the best OL/DL matchup on the slate according to PFF.com. Surprisingly since his return, Harris is leading all Patriots running backs in fantasy points per snap.
James White has continued to be a factor in the passing game. Since week 4, White is leading the team in targets, receptions, and second in yards. White will be needed again tonight, as the Patriots will be playing another game without their star WR, Julien Edelman and N’Keal Harry. The Jets have been middle of the road in running back receiving allowed. They are allowing 7.5 targets, 6 receptions, and 42.5 receiving yards per game to running backs. White will most likely be used early and often, but if he doesn’t he could end up getting game scripted out of the game.
Rex Burkhead is that do it all back, where you are really aiming for the touchdown upside. He provides a low floor, but the Patriots love to feed him touchdowns. Burkhead falls into the troll category. Burkhead has finished with one good game this season and that was due to the absence of James White. That game he finished with 98 total yards, 7 receptions and three total touchdowns. He was unreal that game putting up 34.8 DK points, while the rest of the season he only has 31.3 fantasy points in six games. Burkhead is a good leverage play tonight, but extremely risky with little floor.
Father time no longer undefeated?
Frank Gore has disregarded father time for yet another season. Gore is in his 15th season in the NFL and is 37 years old. As long as teams continue to sign him, it seems like he will continue to play. The record for oldest NFL running back was Jim Thorpe back in 1928, playing at the age of 40. It would appear Gore is chasing that record, but only time will tell. If he is able to make it that long, he could end up playing in the NFL with his son. It would be the first time ever in the NFL for that to happen.
New England has had its troubles against the run this season. They are allowing 140.4 rushing yards per game; this does have to do with game script as they are allowing 31 rushing attempts per game. Both totals ranking in the bottom 5 in the league. New England has been able to get to the running back early, only allowing 1.24 yards before contact. Although, the Patriots are allowing 39.3% of their opponent’s yards to come from the ground, ranking 5th worst in the league. NE also ranks 27th in defensive rushing DVOA.
Jets Pass Catchers
The Jets pass catchers have really been out of the fantasy relevance this season, outside of Jamison Crowder. He has been a diamond in the rough for the Jets. Crowder has been out the past couple of weeks and the offense has really suffered. Darnold averaged only 126.5 passing yards per game over the last two weeks. This being a downgrade from his 198 passing yards per game with Crowder. Crowder has 10+ targets in every game this season. Flacco also is averaging more passing attempts than Darnold a game, so if he is able to keep that up Crowders targets will naturally stay higher. He has been limited in practice Friday and Saturday so he should be able to play tonight.
Breshad Perriman will likely play tonight after dealing with a concussion, which sidelined him last week. Perriman has had to deal with tough matchups every time he’s been on the field. He has two games being shadowed by Tre’Davious White and one game against the 49ers before all their injuries. He has also played one game with Joe Flacco against the Dolphins, where Flacco fed him 8 targets. It seemed like Flacco mainly looked for his guys, Perriman and Crowder. I love seeing concentrated usage rates in the passing game, because it makes it more predictable. I don’t want a ton in this Jets passing game, but Perriman makes a nice salary pivot from Crowder.
Last week with Perriman and Crowder absent from the team, the Jets rolled out Jeff Smith, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios. I expect Berrios to take a back seat if Crowder plays and Mims to take a back seat if Perriman is back. Both those two WRs were mainly filling in for injuries. This should give Smith the clear top option for salary relief in this Jets offense. Unfortunately, he is going up against Jason McCourty who will be the Patriots best CB tonight. Flacco isn’t smart enough to stay away from him. So even in a tough matchup, for only $1,000 he is still a good play.
Patriots Pass Catchers
The Patriots get to roll out their C team WRs tonight. With the loss of Edelman and Harry, the Patriots will have to dig deep into their depth chart to find receiving production.
Last week, we saw Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd run a route on every single one of Cam Newtons drop backs. Followed by Gunner Olszewski, James White, and Ryan Izzo. Those will be the main guys I will be looking at tonight.
Meyers ran a 50/50 split between slot and wide out, Byrd mainly played on the left side of the field. Meyers played on the right when he was lined up up out wide. Gunner then filled in for Meyers on the right side of the field, when Meyer was lined up in the slot. The Patriots did just trade for Dolphins slot WR Isiah Ford we will most likely see him slide into Gunner Olszewski’s role as the secondary slot guy.
The three main cornerbacks for the Jets are: Bless Austin, Pierre Desir, and Brian Poole. Austin takes 95% of his snaps on the Right side, meaning he will be lined up on Byrd a majority of the game. Desir lines up on the left side so he will see some Meyers and some Ford/Gunner. Finally, Brian Poole is the slot man for the Jets, he has been the best corner on the Jets, he will be lined up on Meyers and some Ford/Gunner. Each of these three guys are give up a a target on around 15% of their routes covered. Desir gives up the most fantasy points per route covered with 0.38, followed by Austin with 0.25, and finally Poole with 0.20.
I can’t expect all these Patriots guys to do well, with Cam capping out around 225 passing yards tonight most likely, a lot of these guys you are looking are either volume based or touchdown upside. With Ford getting added to the lineup this could lead to a different spread of the ball. They traded for him for a reason, I am curious if they try to get him involved early.
