What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown Article. I hope you had an amazing week 8. Let’s cap off the week with tons of green on this Monday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out! Monkeyknifefight and Prizepicks, Promo code: KARMA, have been around for a couple years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites hop in our DISCORD and message me. Our NFL Core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays! What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings, you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier, this is similar to FanDuel, the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x as well. On FanDuel, the MVP spot it does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and less ties for DraftKings compared to FanDuel. Which is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas totals
The Bucs are 12.5-point favorites tonight against the Giants. With a 45.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
Tom Brady will be going up against the Giants for the 7th time in his long historic career. Five times in the regular season and twice in the Superbowl. Brady is 4-1 in the regular season and 0-2 in the post season. While the Giants have covered the spread in three out of five regular season games and both postseason games. The over is 3-2 in the regular season and 0-2 in the post season.
10/10/19: Patriots: 35 Giants: 14 Patriots Spread: -16.5 O/U: 43.0
11/15/15: Patriots: 27 Giants: 26 Patriots Spread: -7.0 O/U: 52.5
02/05/12: Patriots: 17 Giants: 21 Patriots Spread: -2.5 O/U: 53.5
11/06/11: Patriots: 20 Giants: 24 Patriots Spread: -9.5 O/U: 51.5
02/03/08: Patriots: 14 Giants: 17 Patriots Spread: -12.5 O/U: 54.5
12/29/07: Patriots: 38 Giants: 35 Patriots Spread: -14.5 O/U: 46.5
10/12/03: Patriots: 17 Giants: 6 Patriots Spread: -2.5 O/U: 42.5
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones gets his second straight primetime game tonight. I’m not sure who did the scheduling for the NFL, but come on… the Giants weren’t supposed to be good enough to get even one primetime game. The most attractive part of playing Jones is a combination of his legs and negative game script. Jones is a 12.5 underdog against Brady tonight, while going up against one of the best defenses in the league. I don’t think anyone thinks this game will be close, but that doesn’t mean we can’t play Jones.
Jones has been atrocious this year, but has put together two decent fantasy performances in a row. Jones is averaging 201.4 passing yards and 42.3 rushing yards a game this season. Adding on to that, he has 5 touchdowns and 11 turnovers on this young season, only seven games deep. Jones has had turnover troubles his whole career. He only has one game out of 20, where he did not have a turnover. In that game, against Washington, he put up five touchdowns and 352 passing yards. We can clearly see an outlier against one of the worst defenses in the league last year. Combining this and seeing he has at least three sacks in 55% of his games played in his career, Bucs defense is a great play tonight.
Tom Brady
Tampa Bay is in full swing now, as Tom Brady seems completely comfortable in this offense. After starting the year averaging only 228 passing yards, with three touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two games with the Bucs. Brady has put together an amazing five game stretch, with an average of 24.4 fantasy points per game. This comes from averaging, 290.8 passing yards a game, with 15 touchdowns and one interception during that time. That includes a game where he only had 166 yards in a massacre against Green Bay. Brady was the number two QB in fantasy over that time, only behind Kyler Murray and his insane rushing upside. He was also 7th in fantasy points per Drop back, with 0.61.
The Giants are allowing 251 passing yards per game, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. They also give up a 68% completion rate, which ranks 7th worst in the league. They also give up 70% of their yards as passing yards, which is also 7th worst in the league. Giants allow a score, touchdown or field goal, on 46% of all drives, which ranks 10th worst in the league. This Giants secondary is not that good, outside of James Bradberry.
The only bright spot for the Giants has been their surprisingly good pass rush. The Giants record a pressure on 25% of drop backs, which ranks 7th best in the league. They also rank 5th in QB knockdowns per pass attempt at 10%. We all know Brady hates being hit, although, the Bucs have been great defending Brady. Brady has been sacked a league low 2.9% of his drop backs. They also have only allowed a pressure on 23% of all drop backs.
Running Backs
Giants
The Giants will be without Davonta Freeman tonight. They were already without Saquan Barkley, now they will be without their mid-season signing. So, who can we trust in this backfield against the best run defense in the league? The short answer is no one, at least on the ground that is. I am sure Daniel Jones will have another game leading the Giants in rushing yards.
The Giants will be rolling out Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Gallman is $5,200 and Lewis is $1,200 on DraftKings. Gallman saw 32 snaps last game, while Lewis only accounted for 15. The only brightside of a Wayne Gallman play this week is his pass catching abilities. He ran 17 routes, which is a route on a little over 50% of his snaps. This makes me believe he will be a fantasy gem today. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league, so we can’t trust him on the ground, but if he can get some targets through the air, or sneak into the end zone, he can hit value while playing from behind.
Buccaneers
The Bucs have an interesting running back situation on their hands. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones have been back and forth with productivity. Every time it seems like Fournette is solidifying his role as the main back in this offense, either he gets hurt or Jones sees an increased workload. Ronald Jones has played well in Fournette’s absence. When Fournette plays, the roles turns to around a 50/50 share, with Fournette normally ending up ahead of Jones in usage.
The Bucs have played seven games this season, Jones was the featured back in all four games Fournette was out, but in the three games Fournette was healthy, Fournette had the better game in all but one. Last week, they let Jones start the game with a lot of touches, but then slowly incorporated Fournette as the second half monster.
Snap Counts:
- Week 2: Fournette 26 snaps with 13 carries, Jones 21 snaps with 7 carries
- Week 3: Fournette 25 snaps with 8 carries, Jones 35 snaps with 14 carries
- Week 7: Fournette 40 snaps with 11 carries, Jones 31 snaps with 13 carries
As we see from the snap counts, it is hard to tell who the true number one running back in this offense is. Since, we are looking at more of a 50/50 time share with coach rolling the hot hand, I would side with the pricing to make my decision. Jones is $8,800, while Fournette is only $6,200. Both should get you similar numbers outside a touchdown. I am sure for this reason Fournette will be the chalkier correct play, but that doesn’t mean Jones isn’t a good play. He provides great ownership leverage. He most likely won’t pay off his salary, but if he does he makes for a great leverage play.
Red Zone Rushes:
- Week 2: Fournette 3 RZ rushing attempts 1 TDs, Jones 1 RZ rushing attempts 1 TDs
- Week 3: Fournette 2 RZ rushing attempts 0 TDs, Jones 4 RZ rushing attempts 0 TDs
- Week 7: Fournette 3 RZ rushing attempts 0 TDs, Jones 4 RZ rushing attempts 1 TDs
So, on the season, when these two guys play together, they are still splitting red zone work as well. There is no clear cut red zone guy, even though, Fournette has 20 pounds on Jones.
Passing Game Usage:
- Week 2: Fournette 5 Targets 4 Receptions, Jones 2 Targets 2 Receptions
- Week 3: Fournette 2 Targets 2 Receptions, Jones 4 Targets 2 Receptions
- Week 7: Fournette 7 Targets 6 Receptions, Jones 2 Targets 1 Receptions
Fournette has dominated the passing usage in all but one game this season, when they both played. Fournette sees a target on 15% of his snaps, while Jones sees a target on only 9% of his snaps.
Lastly, we can see Fournette is way more efficient with him accumulating 0.52 fantasy points per snap and 1.13 fantasy points per touch. Compared to Jones who has 0.35 fantasy points per snap and 0.81 fantasy points per touch. Which correlates well with Fournette’s work in the passing game.
Giants Pass Catchers
Sterling Shepard
Sterling Shepard is finally back for the Giants after missing five weeks with a turf toe injury. The New York pass catcher did not miss a step, putting together 6 receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown, in the loss to the Eagles last Thursday. He now gets 11 days rest, after putting together a 26% target share and grabbing 31.5% of the yards.
Unfortunately, Shepard gets a tough matchup against Carleton Davis, when he is lined up on the right side of the field. Davis only allows a 50% catch rate and 0.79 yards per route covered. Ranking top 10 in the league for both categories. Shepard used to see more time in the slot, but it appears they wanted to keep him on the outside. Week one, he took 38 snaps in the slot and only 14 outside. Since then, he has 12 snaps in the slot and 49 on the outside, where he took 33 snaps on the right side and 16 on the left side.
Golden Tate
Golden Tate has the much easier match up in the slot, which he does 80% of the time, even with Shepard healthy. He took 26 out 28 snaps in the slot last week, in Shepard’s first game back. Sean Murphy-Bunting has been the worst CB on the Bucs, and one of the worst CBs in the league. Allowing 1.58 yards per route run and a 91% catch rate, which ranks second worst, only behind Madre Harper. He allows 0.35 fantasy points per route covered, which ranks 12th worst. Looking at only slot coverage, Murphy-Bunting ranks, 9th in snaps covering the slot, 6th in targets allowed, second in receptions allowed, second in yards allowed, first in YAC allowed, and third in receptions per snap.
Darius Slayton
Darius Slayton took a back seat in the offense last week against the Eagles, but let’s not just completely throw him to the curb. Although, he does get PFFs highest graded Cornerback this year; Jamel Dean. That is my main concern with this matchup, but Slayton still has big play ability. He makes a great risk reward play. Slayton ranks 4th in yards/reception among WRs with at least 35 targets this season. Last week Dean allowed his first play over 20 yards, Agholor was able to get behind him for a 44-yard reception. It appears Dean has been limiting deep balls as well. Even though the matchup seems impossible, if you can get him at low ownership he is worth a boom or bust play.
Bucs Pass Catchers
Mike Evans
Mike Evans has been lucky that James Bradberry left the NFC South, but Evans gets to go up against him in his first year out of the division. Evans history against Bradberry is not the best. Evans has gone up against the Panthers with Bradberry eight times in his career, he is averaging 10.25 target, five receptions, and 67.75 receiving yards in those games. While, only having two touchdowns, both coming in Bradberry’s rookie year. Bradberry only shadowed Evans after his rookie year, in six games against the Panthers. He had 9.8 targets, 4.8 receptions, 64 yards. However, if you combine that with no touchdowns over that stretch, he only averages 11.2 fantasy points per game on a 49% catch rate. Evans is going to have a rough time against a surprisingly tough pass defense. Bradberry is still playing at the top of his game, only allowing a 59% catch rate and 0.95 yards per route covered.
Life Without Chris Godwin
The Bucs will be without Chris Godwin tonight, which means we can fire up some of these cheaper Bucs WRs. Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson will see the largest bump. Johnson will have another huge snap game in the slot with Miller lineup up on the outside again. I touched on this in Tate section, but the only player with a higher catch% than Murphy-Bunting, was Madre Harper. Scotty Miller gets the luxury of matching up against him a majority of the game, especially if we get Bradberry shadowing Evans. Miller has played two games without Godwin this season. We all remember the chalk Miller game week 2, where he put up 11 yards on two receptions and only three targets. Week 4 went a lot better with 83 yards on 5 receptions and 7 targets.
Tyler Johnson gets to slide into Chris Godwin’s slot role. While Justin Watson, who originally had played in the first two games without Godwin, seeing 89% of the snaps and 74% of the snaps. This, while running the most routes of all WRs each of the two weeks fill in for Godwin. He has six receptions on nine targets for 88 yards in those two games. Watson went untargeted on 12 snaps and five routes run. It appears to be Tyler Johnson’s job, who played 29 snaps last week, running 21 routes. While Darnay Holmes isn’t as bad of a slot corner as Murphy-Bunting is, the Giants still can get exposed with their bad slot corner. Holmes is allowing a target on every 5.5 snaps, which ranks 7th worst in the league. While also allowing the 8th most yards per snap with 1.45.
Gronk Spike
Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady finally seem to have hit their groove again. After starting the season with two receptions on four targets generating 11 yards, correlating with Brady’s bad start. He is averaging four receptions on 6.4 targets and 53.8 yards, hauling in two touchdowns in those five games as well. This equates to TE5 during that time. He has also seen the most end zone targets for TEs with six, leading to his two touchdowns. He is also leading TEs with 12 red zone targets. On top on that, he has the highest aDOT among TEs playing 50% of the snaps at an average depth of target of 11.81 yards.
Gronk will be lined up on Blake Martinez for a majority of the game, who has been great. He is allowing a target on only 11% of routes covered and 0.16 fantasy points per route covered. One of his faults is his 83% catch rate. So, he is great at denying targets, but when he is targeted, he has a tough time denying turning that target into a reception. He is only allowing 7.5 yards per reception, which is one of the best among all linebackers. The one spot where Gronk has the advantage is in the end zone. He has 4 inches and over 30 pounds on Martinez. Also, he will be seeing Gronk lined out wide when close to the goal line. This should lead to even more mis-matches in the red zone for easy touchdowns.
