What is up Karma nation! Welcome to another edition of my Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown article. We have an exciting showdown slate tonight. We have a potential preview of the AFC championship with the Ravens and Chiefs going at it tonight. Hopefully by then, we will have an electric environment with a packed house but for now we aren’t that lucky.
Vegas Total
The Ravens are 3.5 point favorite against the Chiefs tonight, with a game total of 54.5 points. I know everyone is excited and expecting a shootout. Each offense is as high powered as it comes, but on the flip side both defenses have been playing at the top of their game dating back to last season. It should be interesting to see which side prevails.
All lines are based on Draftkings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on what time you are reading this or if you are using a different bookie.
Historical Matchups
Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have faced off twice in their short but award filled careers. Mahomes has beaten Jackson in both match ups so far. Mahomes had home field advantage in both match ups which might have played a roll in both victories. Each game has been down to the wire, averaging a Ravens loss by 4 points. Both games hit the over as well.
09/22/2019: Chiefs (Home) 33 Ravens (Away) 28 Chiefs -4.5 Game Total: 52.5 Points
12/09/2018: Chiefs (Home) 27 Ravens (Away) 24 Chiefs -6.5 Game Total: 48.5 Points
Quarterbacks
Obviously, this is a battle of the last two MVPs. Jackson won last year, and Mahomes won the previous year. If Mahomes didn’t get hurt last year, he might have won back-to-back years. I feel like everyone will try to force both QBs into their lineups tonight, but you really don’t have to. I won’t break down the QBs because we all know they are both great. Let’s take a look at the game theory approach behind both plays.
Both QBs are very expensive and need a lot to pay off salary. If I am playing one of the two, I am looking to at least pair them with a couple pass catchers. This is not a slate where you can get cute and go naked QB. You may choose to roster Jackson alone because of his rushing upside. Mahomes is more likely be in a negative game script most of this game, so he is going to be forced to throw the ball a lot tonight.
Running Backs
One thing I am worried about in this game is the potential for a slower paced game than people are expecting. If the Chiefs are able to get out to an early lead, there will be a lot of rushing plays which will run out the clock. We have to go back into last year to see data on negative game script for the Ravens, and they ran the most of all teams. Conversely, the Chiefs are below league average in passing plays while in a positive game script. Be prepared for a lower scoring game if the Chiefs have the lead for a majority of the game when both teams are looking to run the ball.
The Ravens have four different guys that can get it done on the ground. Picking between the four could spell trouble for tonight. The Chiefs have an awful run defense. We could see Jackson, Ingram, Dobbins and Gus Bus run all over them. It’s going to be tough to decide between them. This backfield is tough to fully judge right now through 2 games of data. Mark Ingram has out-snapped both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in each of the first two games. Ingram was used a little in both the running game and the passing game. Dobbins was used mostly in the passing game where he ran more routes than Ingram in both games. Gus Bus is continuing what he has done in years past. He’s mainly a guy getting the carries towards the end of the game, and never really runs any routes.
Even though we assume the Chiefs are going to pass all game, if they get the lead, they will run the rock. They have a great OL/DL match up for running the ball. If they are able to get a lead, Clyde Edwards-Helaire can take advantage of this match up, but Vegas doesn’t believe the Chiefs will have a positive game script. Even if the Chiefs don’t get the game script that favors rushing the ball, he is still one of the most used backs in the league in the passing game from a starter standpoint. He ran a route on close to 50% of passing plays in both games, while seeing only 2 targets in game one but 8 in game two. Note the key in difference of game scripts.
Pass Catchers
We have four guys to pay up for today; Hill, Kelce, Andrews, and Brown. There are a couple ways to look at this slate that will land you on different guys. I actually prefer selecting between one of these four instead of rolling one of the QBs for the CPT spot. We should see at least two of these guys go off for 20+ fantasy points. Andrews actually has the best match up of all these guys, and you should be able to get amazing ownership leverage with the recency bias in play.
Last game, Mark Andrews only saw 29 yards with one catch on 3 targets. We are more likely to see the Chiefs losing in this game according to Vegas. They have installed Baltimore as a 3 point favorite tonight. Mahomes in a negative game script is a fantasy dream. Last game, we saw double-digit targets for both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. If we can see that again, I may look to play both of those guys without Mahomes.
Sammy Watkins is likely to miss this game so we should see an increase in target share for MeCole Hardman, as well as a snap count increase for Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson and Marcus Kemp. In week one, Robinson had two drops that should have been touchdowns on pretty easy plays. He should see the biggest bump in snaps and usage tonight, while they will potentially sprinkle in Pringle and Kemp on around 10 snaps.
On the other side of the field we have a couple low priced Ravens pas catchers with Miles Boykin and Willie Snead IV. I hope we don’t have the slate decided by those 2 TE sets that the Ravens love. Be ready for a Nick Boyle troll touchdown. If you are running 150 lines, I would recommend putting him in couple of lines along with Pringle and Kemp.
Boykin will be lined up on the right side on the field where he will be defended by Rashad Fenton. Snead will be lined up in the slot where he will be defended by Tryrann Mathieu for most of the game. So, who has the easier match up to exploit? Both of these guys are allowing close to 1 yard per route covered, which is right around average. Fenton has been one of the best CBs in the league this year allowing only one target per 15 snaps, second only to Richard Sherman who is in a league of his own with 25 snaps per target. The main two slot guys on the Chiefs are both in the bottom 25% for allowing yards per target.
Snead has the better match up of the two for big play ability, but Boykin may see a more consistent workload. In a showdown, I prefer targeting the big play potential.
Kickers/Defense
Kickers will most likely be over looked today, but there is a game theory approach where you can hammer both kickers and both Quarterbacks if you can nail the best pass catcher. Tucker and Butker are two of the best fantasy kickers in the league. With these two high powered offenses combined with two amazing defenses, it could lead to a lot of yards and every possession ending in field goal range. I love targeting kickers in high total games. This is as high total as it gets. Not the safest option but both kickers can easily get you 10+ points, and at their salary that’s hitting value.
I will be avoiding defenses tonight. Both these teams limit turnovers and sacks while scoring too many points. I would only contemplate playing them for a contrarian play with running backs in the $10 huge contest on DraftKings.
