What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Monday Night Football Showdown Throwdown. I hope you had an amazing week 2. Let’s cap things off with a fun Monday Night game, featuring the Saints and the Raiders. Make sure if you haven’t to subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Ben has started the season 2-0 on FD and 1-1 on DK for cash games. Join while he’s still hot! Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play then GPPs for showdowns.
Vegas totals
The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite tonight against the Raiders. With a 48.5-point game total.
In 2019 there we 8 nondivisional MNF games. The home team was 5-3, we also saw 6 of these games be 2 possessions or more.
Historical Matchup
The Raiders and the Saints have played each other twice over the last decade. Both games had a game total over 50 so it’s surprising we see this total under 50 tonight especially with MNF games usually being the higher scoring games. The loss of Michael Thomas is probably what has it so low. Without the Saints’ top playmaker, they are going to try to figure out a way to get their offense going.
9/11/2016: Saints (Home) 34 Raiders (Away) 35. Saints: -2.5 Game Total: 51.5
11/18/2012: Raiders (Home) 17 Saints (Away) 38. Raiders +6.0 Game Total: 55
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees: Brees is one of the best QBs in the league but I have a couple issues with him tonight. Which makes me not want to pay up for him. Brees just isn’t the same on the road as he is at home. He averages over 100 yards less per game last year at home vs on the road. He also average close to 100 yards less the year before as well. Without Michael Thomas tonight and moving forward I’m not trying to force Brees into many lineups. He’s not the worst play because he still has the touchdown upside but his floor is just too low for me to play tonight. Brees is the second most expensive player behind Kamara on the slate. I would rather have Kamara and add a piece of the Saints passing attack then play Brees. If I knew he would be low owned I wouldn’t mind him as a leverage play but I assume he’s still going to see 30% ownership on DK and 50% or more on FD where people just play both QBs a majority of the time.
Derek Carr: If I am only playing one QB on the slate I am prioritizing Carr over Brees, like I did on Thursday with Burrow over Baker. Game script is so important on showdowns, you usually want to prioritize the QB that is going to be losing. Garbage time points still count. If the Saints get out to an early 14-point lead around half time, Carr will be forced to throw and Brees won’t. Carr should be involved all game. The Saints run defense is phenomenal as well. So, they Raiders should be struggling most of the game to get something going on the ground which will force them to pass the ball more. The Saints will be without Marcus Davenport as well which should lead to more time in the pocket to throw for Carr.
Runningbacks
Saints Rushing game: We talked about this on the Thursday Night Football Showdown article but again we have a team where both running backs are fully in play and even in the same lineup. The Saints will be without star WR Michael Thomas which means we should see Kamara used a ton in the passing game. Kamara has the most upside on the slate with his reception ceiling and touchdown upside, while getting involved for 12-15 carries. With the game script we should see tonight Murray should be used a ton in the running game and could see upwards of 20 carries if the Saints get a big enough lead. I am looking at some lineups with Kamara and Murray then run it back with Raiders.
Josh Jacobs: He is someone I am looking to fade and correlate it with my Brees fade. This is more of a game script play even though he could still end up seeing pass catching upside which will actually help raise his ceiling. The Saints have one of the best run stoppers in the NFL and have been limiting ball carriers all of last season and into this year. Where we saw the Bucs run for 3.3 yards per carry, compared to yesterday where they were able to get that up 5.5 yards per carry. Jacobs is coming off a huge game against the Panthers and hopefully recency bias will make his ownership sky rocket. As long as he doesn’t put up 3 touchdowns again, he won’t pay off his salary tonight.
Favorite Pass Catcher
The Saints will be without Michael Thomas like I have stated multiple times earlier so this will open up a ton of value at the WR position.
Hunter Renfrow: We still don’t have news on Ruggs but he has missed practice all week and was limited on Saturday. I don’t expect him to play and even if he does, he will be treated like Mike Evans was last week. Mainly just a decoy. Renfrow will get a lot of work in the slot tonight and he will be matched up against the Saints slot corner PJ Williams who we all love to target in fantasy. He missed last week but practiced in full all week.
Taysom Hill: With Thomas out tonight I could see the Saints looking to get Hill involved in this offense more. There is a chance without their reliable WR they might see the offense stall every once in a while leading to some Tysom Trick plays. He’s a risk but will see takedown upside.
Captain’s Corner
One of my favorite captains tonight is Murray. He is only 3400 on DK tonight but provides on of the highest upsides in the game. The game script will be in his favor tonight and I’m expecting upwards of 20 carries for him. At only 3400 he is a complete steal and will help you fit everyone you want to play and pay up for.
Alvin Kamara is another player I love tonight at cpt. He is projected to be the highest score on the slate and there is enough value that if he breaks the slate for 30 plus he will easily pay off the salary. I’m not looking to force Brees tonight in the flex spot so I have found it easy to fit Kamara in the cpt spot especially with no Michael Thomas
Derek Carr will be in perfect game script tonight and could provide sneaky cpt upside. At only 9200 he should be in a great spot to put up yards and if the touchdowns are there, he can easily get you 20+. He’s easier to fit in the cpt spot but just doesn’t have the same ceiling as kamara.
