Running Back:
Jordan Howard (PHI)
The Philadelphia Eagles will utilize a committee backfield, as expected, but Jordan Howard should see a majority of the red zone touches. Miles Sanders impressed this preseason, and both Darren Sproles and Corey Clement will steal touches in the passing game, but Howard is one of the best goalline RBs in the league. In the last 2 seasons, he has 36 carries inside the 10-yard line, which is the ninth most in the league behind players like Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Ezekiel Elloitt. In the last year, Howard has 2.44 red zone attempts per game, and he is scoring touchdowns on 26.5% of his red zone attempts. He should see somewhere around 10-15 carries this Sunday against the weak Washington Redskins’ defense, and if the Eagles find their way inside the 20-yard line, he has a decent chance at scoring a touchdown.
Wide Receiver:
Sterling Shepard (NYG)
Last season, the New York Giants targeted wide receivers on 48 red zone attempts, throwing the ball toward Odell Beckham Jr. 21 times and Sterling Shepard 19 times. Shepard had 1.19 red zone opportunities per game, and he converted those attempts into touchdowns at a 21.1% rate. This season, Beckham Jr. is in Cleveland, and Shepard should see an uptick in red zone targets. Another beneficiary will be Evan Engram, who saw 9 red zone targets in 2018, but should see closer to 15 or 20 this season. Engram’s efficiency is unmatched, as he converted 42.9% of his 0.62 red zone opportunities per game into touchdowns. The Giants have plenty of targets to go around this season, and it will be interesting to see if Shepard is ready for WR1 coverage and work. This much is clear; Shepard will lead the Giants in WR red zone targets in 2019.
Tight End:
Eric Ebron (IND)
The Indianapolis Colts are a little bit more difficult to predict than most NFL teams, seeing as Andrew Luck retired just prior to the start of the 2019 season. Jacoby Brissett has only ever targeted Jack Doyle in the red zone, 9 times in 2017. Last season, however, Eric Ebron received 24 red zone targets compared to Doyle at 7. Doyle only played 6 games last season, while Ebron played all 16, but even toward the end of the season, Ebron was seeing red zone targets. He is a big-bodied TE with plenty of red zone upside. Last season, he had 1.63 red zone opportunities per game and converted those opportunities into touchdowns at a 47.8% rate. The Colts’ offensive line should be better than it was in 2017, and Brissett had an entire year behind Andrew Luck to finally learn the playbook. Ebron is risky because Doyle could steal most of his opportunities, but he makes for an interesting tournament option until this TE situation shakes out.
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