Monkey Knife Fight Over Under:
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a disappointing loss to the Houston Texans, after Leonard Fournette failed to secure a 2-point conversion that would have won them the game. The Tennessee Titans sit in a similar boat. Jacoby Brissett and the Indianapolis Colts defeated the Titans by less than a field goal last week. One of these two teams will be disappointed this week as well, but the Jaguars must win in order to not start the season with three consecutive losses. Vegas has this game set at 39.5 total points, and the Jaguars are 1.5-point home underdogs with internet sensation Gardner Minshew at the helm.
Monkey Knife Fight is currently offering users the opportunity to select either over or under on two player’s – Corey Davis and D.J. Chark – specific statistics. Davis is set at 3.5 total receptions, while Chark is set at 40.5 total receiving yards. If the prop prediction turns out to be accurate, this contest pays out 2.47x.
Despite the recent debacle between the Jaguars’ head coach, Doug Marrone, and Jalen Ramsey, the current expert consensus is that he will play this Thursday. Multiple teams have offered first-round compensation for Ramsey, so it is possible he is traded after week 3, but likely not before. Defensive coordinator Todd Wash is known for expecting his cornerbacks to play in zone coverage, and while Ramsey prefers to play in man coverage, Wash’s style may be more effective against the Titans’ offense. If Ramsey ends up defending against Corey Davis, it is going to be difficult for Davis to succeed. He has been unimpressive to start the season, catching a total of 3 passes for 38 yards and 0 touchdowns. While has been targeted only 8 times this season, his snap share is 88.5%. That gives him a target share rate of 16%, which is incredibly low for a supposed WR1. Marcus Mariota’s QB rating when targeting Davis is a lowly 53.1, which could lead him to look toward Adam Humphries, A.J. Brown, and Delanie Walker much more frequently. The Jaguars’ defense is too good to assume that Davis is going to break out of his early season slump on prime time. Expect less than four receptions this Thursday.
One of the biggest early surprises of the season so far is D.J. Chark. Last season, Chark was ignored in the Jaguars’ offense, but this season, he has a 77.7% snap share rate, as well as a 19.7% target share rate. With 13 total targets, he has 11 receptions and 201 receiving yards this season in 2 games. His average target separation is 1.77 yards, and when targeting Chark, the Jaguars’ QBs have a QB rating of 158.3. In week 1, Chark showed off his upside, catching only 4 passes, but doing so for 146 receiving yards. He ran 20 routes and saw 65.3% of the offensive snaps. In week 2, the Jaguars opened up the playbook in his favor a little more frequently, targeting him 9 times, resulting in 7 receptions for 55 yards. He saw 88.9% of the offensive snaps and ran 30 routes. Chark should continue to be a large part of the Jaguars’ offense, and it looks like Minshew is going to target him frequently. Based on both his consistency and upside, Chark should gain over 40 receiving yards this Thursday.
Recommended Players: Corey Davis UNDER 3.5 Receptions, D.J. Chark OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
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