Monkey Knife Fight Touchdown Dance:
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins looked like the worst team in the NFL last week against the Baltimore Ravens, allowing 59 total points and scoring only 10. Lamar Jackson completed 17-of-20 pass attempts for over 300 yards and 5 touchdowns. He ended the game with a perfect passer rating. This week, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will look to cover the massive 19-point spread, which opened as 14.5, via Vegas. Vegas has this game set at 49 total points, giving the Patriots an implied points total of 34. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins should be playing from behind for most of the game, keeping the game’s pace as high as Bill Belichick wants it.
Monkey Knife Fight is currently offering bettors the opportunity to select three offensive players from both teams to combine for more than 1.5 total touchdowns. If these three players do combine for 2 touchdowns or more, this contest pays out 1.5x.
Despite massive offensive struggles, one player stood out for the Dolphins. Preston Williams racked up 5 targets, catching 3 passes for 24 yards and 1 touchdown. He was only on the field for 45.5% of offensive snaps, and he played 10% of those snaps from the slot. His total target share was 15.6%, but his red zone target share was 100%. Williams received both of the Dolphins’ red zone targets last week. This could indicate that Ryan Fitzpatrick has developed trust with the 22-year-old from Colorado State. When targeting Williams, Fitzpatrick had a QB rating over 110. For the time being, Williams should operate as the third top option in the receiving game behind DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. The Patriots have a stout defensive presence, but as long as Williams is targeted inside the 20-yard line, he has touchdown potential.
The New England Patriots are the real reason for this Monkey Knife Fight recommendation, and both Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead are seeing semi-reliable levels of red zone participation. Last week, Gordon received 4 targets, catching 3 passes for 73 yards and 1 touchdown. His target share was a lowly 10.8%, but as one of the Patriots biggest wide outs, he earned 40% of the red zone targets. When Tom Brady targeted Gordon, he achieved an outstanding 156.2 QB rating. The Patriots are expected to score the most amount of total team points this week, and Gordon should continue to see a bulk of the red zone targets in the passing game. He has great touchdown upside.
Rex Burkhead looked great last week, carrying the ball 8 times for 44 yards and catching 5-of-8 targets for 41 yards in the air. Burkhead took the field on 40.9% of offensive snaps, and he had an opportunity share of 37.2%, which means when he was on the field, he was involved in the offensive attack. All of his carries came with Brady under center, and of the 10 total red zone targets last week, he earned 4. If Belichick sticks with the hot hand, Burkhead could see an even bigger snap count share this week, and when the Patriots are winning by double-digits early, RBs should be heavily involved in the Patriots’ offensive attack. Inside the 5-yard line, Burkhead will likely see most of the red zone work, outside of a QB sneak. He is heavily involved in the passing game, as well, giving him increased upside to score on a breakaway reception.
Recommended Players: Josh Gordon, Rex Burkhead, Preston Williams
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