Monkey Knife Fight Hail Mary:
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The NFL season is finally here! This Thursday, the Green Bay Packers travel to Chicago to square off against the Bears in what should be a highly-entertaining matchup. Vegas set this game at 46.5 total points, and the Bears are 3.5-point betting favorites. On Monkey Knife Fight, the total passing yards for both quarterbacks combined – Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky – is set at 519.5. If Rodgers and Trubisky hit the over together, it pays out 1.5x.
Over the last year, Rodgers is averaging 277 passing yards per game, compared to Trubisky at 230. Rodgers gets a tough matchup against a Bears’ defense that possesses a negative true defensive unit strength against quarterbacks (-5.7), but the Packers have had all preseason to prepare for this game, and Rodgers tends to shine during prime-time games. If the Packers are playing from behind, which according to Vegas will be the case, Rodgers is going to see plenty of pass attempts. Matt LaFleur is much more aggressive offensively than Mike McCarthy, and as long as Rodgers and LaFleur are finally on the same page, their offense has plenty of weapons for the aging QB to play with. As an added bonus, the Bears lost Vic Fangio this offseason, so it is possible that their defense is not as good as it was last season.
Trubisky gets a much better matchup, attacking a Packers’ defense that possesses a positive true defensive unit strength against QBs (3.3). Last season, Trubisky barely utilized his TE, passing toward that position only 2.8% of the time. He frequented the RB position, passing that direction 22.8% of the time, but in his third season now, he should see a major step up in confidence and ability to read defenses. Part of that high RB percentage comes from throwing frequently to Tarik Cohen, which is beneficial for Trubisky’s passing yards, as he tends to run routes that are relatively easy for pass completions, but his YAC upside is great with his speed and agility. With Anthony Miller more familiar with the offensive playbook, and Allen Robinson seemingly healthy, the Bears’ offense is going to be a force to be reckoned with. The Packers’ defense is definitely lacking, and this should turn into a shootout rather quickly.
Recommended Players: Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky
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