Welcome to the week 3 edition of Jason’s NFL Air Yards Analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Keenan Allen (LAC)
After week 3 of the NFL season, Keenan Allen remains the league leader in air yards. Last week, Philip Rivers targeted him 17 times, and Allen caught 13 of those targets for over 180 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. That brings him to a grand total of 495 total air yards, but despite an incredible showing, Allen’s advanced metrics are actually on the decline. His aDOT dropped from 13.2 to 11.8, his air yards market share decreased from 55% to 46%, and his weighted opportunity rating dropped from 0.92 to 0.87, which, to be fair to Allen, is still leading the league by a large margin. This weekend, the Los Angeles Chargers travel into Miami to beat up on the Dolphins. Vegas has the spread set at an outstanding 16.5 points in favor of the Chargers. Obviously, Allen remains a top option in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues. He could end the season as the true WR1, so when evaluating in-season trades, take into consideration that his upside is even higher than his most recent performances.
Last Week Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
It looks like Chris Godwin is going to have to step down from his role as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ stud WR. Yes, that’s a joke. There were multiple articles after week 2 that suggested the Bucs were going to target Godwin more frequently than Mike Evans. It was the perfect time to buy low on Evans, and right now, if fantasy owners are still skeptical, take advantage of that. In week 3, Jameis Winston targeted Evans 15 times, and Evans caught 8 of those targets for 190 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. That resulted in 244 total air yards. His aDOT was an incredible 16.3, his air yards market share was over 50%, and his weighted opportunity rating was over 0.90. Evans was targeted more in week 3 than in both week 1 and week 2 combined, and the Bucs made it abundantly clear that he is the WR1. Godwin is going to continue to see plenty of targets, and he makes for a great PPR WR in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues, but Tampa Bay continues to be Evans’ playground.
Unexpected Value:
DeVante Parker (MIA)
It is tough to recommend any of the Miami Dolphins players for anything outside of early retirement, but DeVante Parker, despite the struggles of both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, is currently fourth in the league in total air yards with 433. He trails only Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and Marquise Brown. The problem is that on 20 targets, Parker only has 6 receptions for 131 yards and 0 touchdowns. Even so, his aDOT is over 20, which indicates tremendous fantasy upside, and with a great matchup this weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers’ poor secondary, he could be in line for a sneaky breakout. The Dolphins opened the season against the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, and Dallas Cowboys, all of which have good defenses. As the season progresses, and they start to see teams like the Washington Redskins, New York Giants, and Cincinnati Bengals, Parkers’ target-to-reception conversion ratio should increase. The current QBR when Parker is targeted is under 15, which even for Rosen, is unsustainable. Buy low!
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
