Ethan’s NFL Last Look for PrizePicks -Week 11 - DFS Karma
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Ethan’s NFL Last Look for PrizePicks -Week 11

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Last Look article for PrizePicks. If you haven’t made an account for PrizePicks, click on the link. Then use promo code KARMA for a nice deposit bonus and a free play. In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite PrizePicks prop of the weekend. To find my other prop plays and all of the other staff’s favorite prop plays, make sure to sign up for our NFL Core Plays.

TODD GURLEY UNDER 12.8 Fantasy Points:

Todd Gurley is having a decent year for a guy with major knee issues. His numbers are not spectacular, but he has been consistent. Gurley is averaging 17.6 rushing attempts, 64.8 rushing yards, 2.4 targets, 1.6 receptions, and nine total rushing touchdowns. This week he goes up against a tough defense, the Saints, who are only giving up 12.3 fantasy points to opposing team’s running backs this season. Gurley gets the second worst match up this week. Gurley is going up against the second-best rush defense in the NFL, which is only giving up 76.8 rushing yards per game. The Falcons offensive line has the third worst match up against the Saints defensive line, according to PFF. The Saints have yet to give up 100 rushing yards to a running back and have only given up three rushing touchdowns this year. I do not expect the Saints to allow Gurley much room to run, for a guy who is on the decline in his career. The Free Projections Portal on the site has Todd Gurley projected for 12.29 fantasy points, which is just under his prop. Gurley is expected to get round 50 yards on the ground, plus a catch or two. Gurley’s bread and butter this year is scoring touchdowns, but that will be a difficult task this week. The numbers point to the under, unless Gurley gets a touchdown this week.

MIKE DAVIS OVER 15.3 Fantasy Points:

Mike Davis will get the start again this week, with Christian McCaffrey missing another game. Davis has been great this year, with McCaffrey missing most of the year. Davis is averaging 12.8 rushing attempts, 54.4 rushing yards, 5.7 targets, 4.8 receptions, and four total touchdowns. Coming into town this week are the Detroit Lions, who have a terrible rush defense. Another thing working in Davis’ favor, Teddy Bridgewater who is questionable to play. If Teddy misses the game, the Panthers will start XFL star PJ Walker at quarterback and rely more on Davis. The Lions come into the game ranked 27th in DVOA against the run. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to running backs, giving up over 30 fantasy points per a game. If Teddy misses the game, I fully expect the Lions to give Davis a heavy workload. Davis averages almost 6 targets per a game, and if Walker starts you can expect a lot of short passes to Davis. Davis also has 10 red zone targets this year, which gives him an even higher chance of scoring a touchdown to help the over. The Free Projections Portal on the site has Mike Davis projected for 16.46, which is over his prop. The stars are aligning for Davis to put up a monster stat line. We can expect around 15 rushing attempts this game, and if the Panthers are winning, we could see that number go over 20. I also expect Davis to be active in the pass game, 4-6 receptions are reasonable for him this Sunday. Even if Davis does not get a touchdown, I expect him to go over his prop total.

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