With six teams on a bye this week, options for building our own head-to-head prop bets are a little limited.
Making matters worse, the Broncos Texans game, one I would love to attack (spoiler: fade Demaryius Thomas and any revenge narratives), has yet to be made available at MyBookie.
There are still some solid values to exploit, but I’m not quite as optimistic as I was last week, when we went 3-0 in this space.
Overall, our player prop picks over at Bet the Prop went 24-6-1 last week, hitting at an 87 percent clip.
Let’s see what we can see for head-to-head props in Week 9.
Where to find H2H Props on MyBookie
Step 1: Click Props Builder
Step 2: Click H2H
Cam Newton > Mitch Trubisky, Passing Yards
1 Unit to win .82 Units
These two QBs may sport aesthetic similarities – from the low-passing volume to the propensity to pile up rushing yards – but their respective matchups this week couldn’t be more different.
- Trubisky is on the road facing a Buffalo defense giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game at 237.
- Newton is at home facing a Tampa Bay defense yielding the most passing yards at 332 yards per game.
That’s a 40 percent discrepancy in defensive passing strength. Despite that, we’re getting even money on this bet after paying the vig.
Yes, Trubisky has 168 more passing yards on the year (24 yards more per game), but we know Newton has a huge ceiling.
In a very similar spot in Week 2, facing a high-powered Atlanta offense which has no pass defense, Newton put up 335 yards. This week — it’s the the Buccaneers high-powered offense and their complete lack of pass defense.
It’s a great spot for Newton, and an uphill battle for the sophomore Turbisky on the road.
DJ Moore > Paul Richardson, Receiving Yards
1 Unit to Win 1.82 Units
We’re exploiting the same matchup for our next head to head, and an undervalued DJ Moore is the target.
The first-round rookie WR broke out with 90 yards on six targets last week, a feat all the more impressive coming against a Baltimore team giving up the fourth-fewest yards to opposing WRs.
Even if Torrey Smith is back in the lineup (he missed last week and hasn’t practiced this week), the rookie has earned more looks.
And few teams give up better looks than the Bucs; opposing WRs are posting 197 yards per game against Tampa, the third-worst mark in the league.
As for Richardson, I suppose his matchup against Atlanta is worth a bump, but he’s averaging 41 yards per game and has gone over 50 yards just once in six games.
Both his floor and ceiling are about as limited as it gets.
Peyton Barber > Alvin Kamara, Carries
1.5 Units to Win 1 Unit
If you don’t want to go with Barber, you could also pit the following guys against Kamara for carry totals:
- Isaiah Crowell (-164)
- Mark Ingram (-122)
I like Barber the best, although Crowell against a Miami run defense surrendering the second-most carries to opposing backs at 26.8 per game is awfully tempting as well.
But Barber has been fed a steady diet of rushes all year long, averaging 13.2 per game.
Kamara is averaging about the same, and his carry totals haven’t really been affected by the return of Mark Ingram. However, in a matchup with high-flying Rams, I see the Saints resorting to more of an aerial attack.
A dozen carries is something around Kamara’s ceiling in this one, a mark Barber should have no problem hitting.
