I play on both DraftKings and FanDuel as MigTheTig. You can also find me on Twitter via the same name. A deeper explanation behind the concept for this article can be found in the Week 1 Pressure Picks article.

 

Over the past decade, the average passer rating for a QB in a clean pocket is 98.5. For a quarterback that is under pressure, that rating drops to 73.3. That’s about a 25% drop in passer rating.  To put that in perspective, Tom Brady owns a career passer rating of 97.6, while most seasons, a 73.3 passer rating would rank in the bottom 3 for all starting QBs.  Once pressure hits the pocket, the plan for that particular play often times goes down the drain.

 

Here are Week 5’s Pressure Picks

 

Alshon Jeffery (DK $5900 FD $6700)

Ranking dead last so far this season in PFF’s pass rush grade, NYJ will go on the road against a PHI team fresh off 10 days rest with their top tier offensive line which has allowed only 2 sacks despite playing the 8th most pass snaps on the year.

Alshon has effectively played in 2 games this year (exited after 6 snaps in week 2) and has 2 receiving touchdowns and a creative play design goal line touchdown run. DeSean Jackson appears to be out again this week and Alshon should see half of his routes against Darryl Roberts – PFF’s dead last graded CB for those with at least 100 routes in coverage so far this year.

Priced right near several popular WR plays this weekend, Alshon looks to be lower owned than he should playing against a bad defense and in the 2nd highest Vegas total on the main slate.

 

Adam Thielen (DK $6700 FD $6900)

The squeaky wheel typically does get the grease in the NFL…especially when the player speaking out is an important player for the franchise. Kirk Cousins is quickly losing his good standing with his two star receivers as Diggs has recently asked for a trade and Thielen complained about not getting enough targets in spots where they should have been passing. Kirk (stupidly) publicly apologized to Thielen and will most likely feed Thielen more targets against the lowly Giants on Sunday.

The Vikings have a bottom-3 pass blocking O-Line, so when they get to face a poor pass rush like that of the 30th ranked Giants, it’s like a warm welcoming to the passing game. Cousins will finally will have SOME time and Thielen will be out there running against the 30th ranked team in coverage grade. Diggs of course is in play as well but I’m taking a stand with Thielen this week.

 

 

Larry Fitzgerald (DK $6000 FD $5800)

Larry Fitzgerald is playing in his 16th season for the Cardinals and will be viewed as one of the greatest WRs to ever play the game. How cool is it that in his 16th season we can fire him up in DFS and make money off his high level play at this advanced age?

Fitz leads the league in targets inside the 10, should gain an even larger overall target share with fellow slot WR Christian Kirk not playing this week and gets to face a horrible CIN defense (31st in Coverage rating, 32nd in tackle rating per PFF). CIN is also on short rest after getting picked apart by rookie QB Mason Rudolph & backup RB Jaylen Samuels for a combined passing line of 27/31 260 YDS 2 TD 0 INT

This should be the cleanest pocket Kyler Murray will have so far this year and I like him to lean on Fitz early and often.

 

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $7800 FD $8500)

Will Fuller (DK $4500 FD $5700)

I wanted to pick just one but I couldn’t. Whatever. It’s my article and I make the rules. I’m getting tons of exposure to both of them.

Watson has been constantly under pressure thus far but he should enjoy his cleanest pocket of the year against a Falcons team ranked 31st in sacks after hardly pressuring Marcus Mariota at home last week even with multiple starters missing from the Titans O-line. The game features the highest over/under and 2nd fastest projected pace. With plenty of awesome plays on both sides, I’m not overthinking it with this one.

Atlanta’s devastating season-ending injury to star safety Keanu Neal should help Hopkins and Fuller take the top off of this defense…especially after they both JUST missed out on massive TD bombs last week on uncharacteristically inaccurate deep throws from Watson. The deep looks should continue to come since only Matthew Stafford has averaged more deep throws (20+ yards) per pass attempt than Watson this year.