Week 2 Pressure Pick Results:

• Mecole Hardman (article cover boy) – 4/61/1 (16.1 DK points) along with a GUT WRENCHING 72 Yard TD BOMB called back for holding.
• Larry Fitzgerald – 5/104/0 (18.4 DK points)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster – 5/84/0 (13.4 DK points)
• John Brown – 7/72/0 (14.2 DK points)

 

Over the past decade, the average passer rating for a QB in a clean pocket is 98.5. For a quarterback that is under pressure, that rating drops to 73.3. That’s about a 25% drop in passer rating.  To put that in perspective, Tom Brady owns a career passer rating of 97.6, while most seasons, a 73.3 passer rating would rank in the bottom 3 for all starting QBs.  Once pressure hits the pocket, the plan for that particular play often times goes down the drain.

 

Here are Week 3’s Pressure Picks

 

Curtis Samuel

 

Last Thursday, after coach comments about not getting Curtis Samuel involved enough in Week 1, Samuel finished the TNF game with 5 catches for 91 yards and 234 Air Yards (the total amount of yards the ball travels in the air on the way to its targeted receiver). 30 more offenses took the field Sunday and Monday and Samuel’s 234 air yards remained #1 for Week 2. He also is tied for the league lead in targets of 20+ yards (7).

The Panthers travel to ARI on 10 days rest and should enjoy quality pass protection against ARI’s bottom-5 pass rush. The Cardinals are still missing their top 2 CBs in Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford and I’m actually happy that the Panthers are likely rolling out the Phoenix area hometown hero Kyle Allen at QB rather than a hurt Cam Newton. Kyle Allen (former #1 QB in the nation coming out of high school with offers from Alabama and almost every other major program) has a big arm and has already shown the ability to get the ball to Samuel on deep routes.

This game also will feature the NFL’s #1 and #2 fastest paced teams in seconds/play through the first 2 weeks. Players in great spots with elevated expected play volume is something we should be looking for in DFS.

 

Stefon Diggs

 

Minnesota has offensive line problems, no doubt. Sometimes the best cure for leaky pass protection is to face off against a horrible pass rush. Kirk Cousins will go from playing on the road in Green Bay last week where he faced the league’s highest percentage of pressures per dropback (65%) to coming home for a matchup with Oakland. As mentioned in previous Pressure Picks articles, Oakland had a historically bad pass rush last year and only pressured Mahomes last week on 17% of his dropbacks (2nd lowest behind only Brady [16%] who faced Miami). Something of note – OAK had zero success against KC’s mediocre O-Line even while Mahomes was taking his time waiting for deep pass routes to develop – of which he attempted about 10,000, and in the process, made slow (4.6 40-time) WR Demarcus Robinson look like prime Randy Moss.

Diggs is widely regarded as a top 3 route runner in the league (along with Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper) and has phenomenal hands and body control on deep shots. Although there is some game script risk and Mike Zimmer prefers boring football, the scheme has at least still shown to favor deep shots to Diggs (Cousins connected with Diggs last week for a 45 yard TD). After only 10 pass attempts in week 1 (seriously) Diggs was 3rd in the NFL in Week 2 for Air Yards. The big plays will soon be coming…hopefully against a slower big-bodied OAK secondary with no pass rush and backups starting at Safety.

 

Chris Godwin

 

Godwin was absolute chalk in Week 1 after receiving tons of preseason hype. He didn’t disappoint thus far with 2 TDs in 2 weeks and the team lead in receptions, yards, touchdowns, targets and red zone targets. Tampa, fresh off 10 days rest, gets to come home to face a horrible NYG pass rush and I’m assuming everyone will be playing true cash game lock Keenan Allen who is just $100 more on DraftKings.

Mike Evans or Breshad Perriman would be the fancy plays here, but I’m happy to just play the receiver who looks amazing, is getting all the looks, doesn’t get the Janoris Jenkins shadow like Evans will and won’t be nearly as highly-owned as he was just 2 weeks ago in a worse matchup.

 

Devin Smith

 

First of all, I love Amari Cooper.  He’s an unreal route runner, posseses high top-end speed, has 10” hands and has shown amazing rapport with his emerging superstar QB. I also know that Amari for whatever reason has been very sensitive to CB matchups over the years and if Xavien Howard is as good as many think he is, I’m happy to just take the easier CB matchup and discount on price and ownership with Devin Smith. 

Due to WR depth issues with injuries to my boy Michael Gallup and Tavon Austin, I like Devin Smith to play the entire game against this putrid MIA defense. Miami is generating nearly nothing as far as pressure, DAL has an elite O-Line and I like Devin Smith to stretch the field again this week after coming in for an injured Gallup & scoring on a 51-yard TD bomb on the road against Washington last week.