Welcome back to the Data Viz DFS NFL Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations – today our focus is wide receivers. Today we will be utilizing targets per game, week 7 price, total TDs, & yards per target to understand what WRs have the best value for week 7.
Total targets is a great way to gauge how involved each WR will be in the offensive game plan. Obviously the more targets the more chances to score fantasy points – but targets per game didn’t seem like a fair comparison when comparing across different salary ranges.
Lower priced wide receivers are most likely getting less targets than high priced WRs – that is obvious. This makes it difficult to compare fairly across all salary ranges. Most likely we will need to fill our lineup with WRs across all salary points – so how can we compare fairly across all salary ranges? With that question in mind, I decided to divide total touches by salary – to get touches per $. This number was too small so I divided salary by $1K and came up with touches per $1K spent. Dividing by a salary/$1K establishes a baseline statistic that we can use to compare all WRs against. This is important because it levels the playing field regardless of price. We no longer care about total targets or price – but mainly targets per $1K. This is what we will utilize to predict true value across the board. Remember this is just a starting point, we must now dive deeper into the position & match ups to find the best value plays.
Today’s viz is a vertical bar graph that shows targets per game per $1K, the color of the bar represents yards per target (blue is good & orange is bad), & the grey circle indicates total TDs. The WRs are ordered by Week 7 DK price.
Expensive WRs ($8.9K – $6.1K)
Expensive WRs I Like For Week 7
Cooper Kupp ($7.4K) vs Falcons: Cooper Kupp leads the expensive WRs in targets per game per $1K with 1.6. Kupp & Goff have developed a solid rapport – which makes Kupp a safe play. The Falcons passing defense is one of the worst units in the league – giving up 15 passing TDs (2nd most in NFL). Play Kupp & expect him to put up solid numbers against a poor Falcons secondary.
Julian Edelman ($7K) vs Jets: Edelman is the clear number one target for Tom Brady with 9.3 targets per game. Although he hasn’t scored TDs this season (2 total) – he has still been a solid play this year. The Jets haven’t given up many TDs this season (5 TDs) – but Brady will be looking his way too much to pass up. Edelman’s 1.3 targets per game per $1K is well above average – meaning he gets more than enough targets for his salary point. Start Edelman especially in PPR formats.
Michael Gallup ($6.5K) vs Eagles: Michael Gallup has WR1 upside this week – especially if Amari Cooper is out. Gallup’s 1.4 targets per game per $1K is one of the best in the league – he also averages 10.75 yards per target. Gallup is a legit threat for the Cowboys & is back healthy. I expect Gallup to step up & be the big time threat Dak desperately needs especially against the bad Eagles secondary (280 passing yds/game & 13 TDs).
Larry Fitzgerald ($6.1K) vs Giants: Larry Fitzgerald has value – especially priced at $6.1K. Granted he doesn’t have the high upside some other receivers have, but he is as consistent as they come. The Cardinals play one of the fastest paced games in the league & going up against a poor Giants secondary (2nd worst passing yards against). I’m expecting the Cardinals to have a big week with Fitzgerald being a key part of the Cards offense. Kyler Murray & Kliff Kingsbury are getting better each week which is good news for Fitzgerald.
Expensive WRs I Do Not Like For Week 7
Michael Thomas ($7.9K) vs Bears: Tough match up for Thomas vs the Bears plus the inability for Teddy to throw down field. I also expect this game to be low scoring – which means I’m staying away from Thomas in week 7.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7.8K) vs Colts: Hopkins has one of the toughest match up in week 7 – facing off against Casey Hayward Jr. of the Colts. At $7.8K – Hopkins isn’t worth the price this week.
Keenan Allen ($6.7K) vs Titans: Keenan Allen has been a huge disappointment this year, outside of week 3. I do not trust Allen & will stay away until he puts up consecutive good weeks. He is a fraud that has relied on one good week.
Terry McLaurin ($6.1K) vs 49ers: Although McLaurin has 1.2 targets per $1K & average 10.7 yards per target – I am still staying away. He is facing one of the best passing defense in the league (150.2 yds/g). Against a more favorable match up – McLaurin does provide value just not this week.
Expensive-ish WRs ($6K – $5.5K)
Expensive-ish WRs I Like For Week 7
DJ Chark Jr. ($6K) vs Bengals: DJ Chark has been Minshew’s go to WR & has made the most of the opportunity. He is averaging 12 yards per target & is a legit TD threat week in and week out (5 TDs). One other big thing that’s tough to ignore is the Jags are facing the Bengals. The Bengals stink all round – expect the Jags to put up big numbers with Chark contributing heavily.
Golden Tate ($5.8K) vs Cardinals: Tate is going to be heavily targeted by Daniel Jones while Sterling Shepard is out. Tate has a small sample size but if last week is any indication (9 targets/ 102 yds) – he should have a big week against the Cardinals D. Expect a fast paced game which means a lot of golden opportunities.
Tyler Boyd ($5.6K) vs Jaguars: Is the best value for this range of WRs (1.8 targets per game per $1K). With AJ Green out – expect Boyd to step up into the WR1 slot. He is priced as a WR2 so at this price point – he is a must start.
Expensive-ish WRs I Do Not Like For Week 7
Josh Gordon ($5.9K) vs Jets: Josh Gordon is not a WR that can be trusted to perform in fantasy, especially in week 7. Even without the injury – I would stay away from Gordon. His targets per game per $1k (1) is one of the worst amongst top WRs. He is overpriced & until his price drops significantly – I will not be playing Gordon.
DeSean Jackson ($5.3K) vs Cowboys: Speaking of over-valued – Desean Jackson is the most overvalued WR (according to targets per game per $1K). Jackson does not receive enough targets per game & with a lingering injury – I will stay away from Jackson in week 7. Jackson always is a threat for the deep ball, but even with that threat he is not playable in week 7.
Allen Robinson II ($5.5K) vs Saints: If Allen Robinson was on any other team I would stay start him, but unfortunately for Robinson he is on the Bears. Robinson does receive a lot of targets especially for his salary range, but too bad those targets are mainly useless coming from such poor QBs. There are much better options than Robinson for week 7.
Mid Priced WRs ($5.4K – $4.8K)
Mid Priced WRs I Like For Week 7
Calvin Ridley ($5.3K) vs Rams | Randall Cobb ($5K) vs Eagles | DK Metcalf ($4.8K) vs Ravens
Mid Priced WRs I Do Not Like For Week 7
Marvin Jones Jr. ($5.7K) vs Vikings | Tyrell Williams ($5.1K) vs Packers | Marquise Goodwin ($4.8K) vs Redskins
Cheap WRs ($4.7K – $4.1K)
Cheap WRs I Like For Week 7
Cole Beasley ($4.7K) vs Dolphins | Mike Williams ($4.6K) vs Titans | Auden Tate ($4.5K) vs Jaguars
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