Welcome back to the Data Viz DFS NFL Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations – today our focus is tight ends. Today we will be utilizing targets per game, week 7 price, total TDs, & yards per target to understand what TEs have the best value for week 7.
Total targets is a great way to gauge how involved each TE will be in the offensive game plan. Obviously the more targets the more chances to score fantasy points – but targets per game didn’t seem like a fair comparison when comparing across different salary ranges.
Lower priced TEs are most likely getting less targets than high priced TEs – that is obvious. This makes it difficult to compare fairly across all salary ranges. Most likely we will need to fill our lineup with TEs across all salary points – so how can we compare fairly across all salary ranges? With that question in mind, I decided to divide total touches by salary – to get touches per $. This number was too small so I divided salary by $1K and came up with touches per $1K spent. Dividing by a salary/$1K establishes a baseline statistic that we can use to compare all TEs against. This is important because it levels the playing field regardless of price. We no longer care about total targets or price – but mainly targets per $1K. This is what we will utilize to predict true value across the board. Remember this is just a starting point, we must now dive deeper into the position & match ups to find the best value plays.
Today’s viz is a vertical bar graph that shows targets per game per $1K, the color of the bar represents yards per target (blue is good & orange is bad), & the grey circle indicates total TDs. The TEs are ordered by Week 7 DK price.
TE Preview ($6.9K – $3.6K)
TEs I Like For Week 7
George Kittle ($6.7K) vs Redskins: George Kittle is one of the most consistent TEs in the league – he is also priced that way. I normally do not like spending a lot of money on the TE position – but if there was one TE to spend on it is George Kittle. He has a favorable match up against the Redskins (TEs have scored an avg of 12.8 DK pts vs Redskins). His 1.1 targets per game per $1K is average but he makes the most of those targets with 9 yards per target. If you want consistency, and are willing to pay the price – go with Kittle.
Austin Hooper ($5.3K) vs Rams: Hooper leads all TEs with 3 TDs, but that doesn’t mean he is TD reliant. Hooper puts up 1.6 targets per game per $1K & averages 8.3 yards per target – making Hooper a well rounded TE. In 4 out of 6 games, Hooper has had at least 8 receptions – expect this trend to continue in week 7. The Rams defense is not great a against TEs – allowing 13.1 DK pts per week. Start Hooper this week against the Rams.
Mark Andrews ($4.9K) vs Seahawks: Andrew’s is Lamar Jackson’s number one target – with no less than 7 targets in every game this season. This innately will have value, especially priced at $4.9K. Andrews leads the league with 3 TDs, averages 1.6 targets per game per $1K, & just under 7 yards per game. The Seahawks Defense is poor against TEs (average 16.3 DK pts per game). I am predicting a big week for Andrew’s – at least 15 points.
Jason Witten ($3.7K) vs Eagles: Jason Witten is not a fancy play, but he is consistent. Based on last week (season high in targets & receptions), I feel like Witten is becoming a much bigger part of the Cowboys offense. Combine that with the uncertainty in the health of the Cowboys WRs – I think Dak will be targeting Witten a lot. This is a flyer pick that will pay off – trust me and trust Witten in week 7.
TEs I Do Not Like For Week 7
Jimmy Graham ($4.2K) vs Raiders: Jimmy Graham is not the TE he once was – losing almost all athleticism. He is very much TD reliant – which are the type of players I avoid. His 1.0 targets per game per $1K is terrible for a TE at his price & his 2 TDs on the season doesn’t impress me much. He should have some redzone targets, but that is not enough for me to trust Graham. Sit him for the rest of the year, there are better options.
Eric Ebron ($3.9K) vs Texans: Ebron is splitting playing time with Jack Doyle – there are simply not enough opportunities to justify starting Ebron. He has had 1 reception in 3 games & only 3 in the other two – very low volume. Stay away from Ebron – he will not get enough opportunities to be successful.
Gerald Everett ($3.7K) vs Falcons: Gerald Everett was trending up from week 3 to week 5 (1.4/10.4/13.6 pts per game), but a terrible week 6 (.9) has brought him back to earth. Combine that with the fact that he is splitting snaps with Tyler Higbee – makes Everett unplayable.
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