Welcome back to the Data Viz DFS NFL Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations. Today we will be previewing the RB position for week 13 by utilizing receiving targets per game, rushing attempts per game, & total touches per game. One important note is that all the charts below only contain players who are playing on Sunday 12/1 . So that means no players from the following teams: DET, CHI, DAL. BUF, ATL, NO are included in any of the visuals.
Let’s jump straight into the analysis and take a look at our first viz.
Our first visual is a scatter plot utilizing targets per game (y-axis) & rushing attempts per game (x-axis). Each circle represents a different RB, the size of the circle is total TDs, & the color is based on fantasy pts per game (orange < 16 & blue > 16).
Key Takeaways
There are 4 distinct quadrants. We will utilize average targets per game (3.3) & average rush attempts per game (11.1) to create 4 quadrants: high attempts / high targets, high attempts / low targets, low attempts / high targets, & the doesn’t matter category.
Most of the highest scoring RBs are in the high attempts & high targets quadrant. 5/8 RBs that have scored > 16 are in this quadrant.
Only 1 RB has less than 11.1 rush attempts per game but has scored > 16 fantasy pts per game. All other RBs that average 16 pts per game average > 11.1 rushing attempts per game.
If you average < 11.1 rushing attempts per game & < 3.3 targets per game – you cannot be trusted week in and week out. You could take a flyer with one of these players but you would be counting on a TD.
Continue reading for a zoomed in viz of each visual. I will also list off some players I think have good value from each viz. Remember – all charts only include players playing this Sunday.
High Attempts & High Targets Viz
RBs that have above average targets per game & above average rushing attempts per game. These are the RBs that are highly involved in both parts of the game (passing & rushing). We can count on these RBs to receive the appropriate amount of touches to be a difference maker.
Players I Like For Week 13: Christian McCaffrey | Saquon Barkley | Aaron Jones | Phillip Lindsay | Dalvin Cook
Players I Don’t Like For Week 13: Leonard Fournette | Le’Veon Bell | Melvin Gordon | Chris Carson
High Attempts & Low Targets Viz
RBs that have below average targets per game & above average rushing attempts per game. These are the RBs that are involved in mainly just the rushing attack.
Players I Like For Week 13: Josh Jacobs | Tevin Coleman | Sony Michel | Marlon Mack | Adrian Peterson
Players I Don’t Like For Week 13: Joe Mixon | Carlos Hyde | Matt Breida
Low Attempts & High Targets Viz
RBs that have above average targets per game & below average rushing attempts per game. These are the RBs that are involved in mainly just the passing attack. These RBs do not have a lot of value but there could be some hidden gems.
Players I Like For Week 13: Austin Ekeler | Kenyan Drake | James White
Players I Don’t Like For Week 13: The Remaining RBs
Ask me any questions about Data, Visuals, DFS, etc. on Twitter (@StephenDataViz) or Instagram (@StephenDataViz)
