Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Recap using data science & visualizations – today the focus is WRs & RBs.
I am going to compare expectations going into week 3 & the reality after week 3. I will accomplish this by comparing the positional rank by DK price going into week 3 (expectation) & the positional rank by points for week 3 (reality). Continue reading as I take a deep dive into the WR & RB position, or if you want to just scroll through and look at the pictures – I bolded a few key statements to allow you to follow along as well.
One way to ensure winning in DFS week in and week out is making sure you hit on high priced players. It is very difficult to succeed when ponying up for an expensive dud. The viz today helps put some perspective into choosing high priced players & how to find value across all salary points.
The week’s viz is a ‘comet chart’ that compares the projected position rank going into week 3 & the actual position rank for week 3. The skinny tip represents the actual rank for week 3 & the fat tip represents the projected rank. Blue means the receiver exceeded expectations & orange means the receiver under delivered. The chart below is the top 30 most expensive players (DK) – regardless of position.
The chart below is mainly orange which tells us most expensive players do not live up to the pre-week hype. Obviously these players have value – they’re high priced for a reason – but when should we pay up & when should we find value in less expensive players? My plan is to provide some visualizations & analysis that will help us get closer to answering that question.
Now that we know what a ‘comet chart’ is & how to read one – let’s take a closer look at the wide receiver / running back positions & salary to see if we can learn anything from week 3 that will help us dominate week 4 / the remainder of the season.
High Priced Running Backs ($9.1K – $5.4K)
The chart below shows high priced RBs going into week 3. The fat tip is the projected rank & the skinny tip is the actual rank, orange shows negative movement & blue shows positive movement.
The players with the largest negative movement (longest orange ‘comets) were: Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, James Conner, Sony Michel, & Chris Carson. These players were priced high going into week 3 but did not live up to the hype. Obviously Barkley was injured but will the other 3 RBs have a bounce back week 4? Let’s take a deeper dive into these 4 players.
Week 3 price is the price for that player in week 3 | Actual value is the price of that player if they were valued based on their week 3 performance. I’m going to look at the post week 3 rankings & cross reference with the same pre-week 3 ranking & utilize that price. For example: Aaron Jones cost $6.1K & ranked 13 going into week 3 but actually ranked 16th in week 3 so therefore should have been priced as the 16th priced RB which was $5.9K – meaning he was overvalued by .2K.
Todd Gurley (Week 3 Price: $6.7K | Actual Value: $3.6K) does not have value for week 4. Although Sean McVay will not admit they are preserving Gurley for later in the season, I believe they are, & fantasy owners should do the same. Stay away from Gurley until we have definite proof he is the focus of the Rams offense.
James Conner (Week 3 Price: $6.4K | Actual Value: $4.3K) put up the same yards rushing as Gurley for week 4 (43 yds). I think the injury to Big Ben will impact Conner in a big way – don’t play Conner until his price drops or his QB situation turns around. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening soon.
Sony Michel (Week 3 Price: $6K | Actual Value: $4.1K) has talent & the ability to put up big numbers weekly, but can we predict what week the Patriots offense decides to utilize him? I do not think so & for that reason I am out. Unless Michel drops in price – I think his variance week in and week out makes him unplayable.
Chris Carson (Week 3 Price: $5.9K | Actual Value: $3.6K) had a bad week, no denying that (15 rushes | 52 yards | 0 TDs | 1 fumble) – matter of fact he only out-rushed his QB by 1 yard. I think this was an aberration & not the norm so I will not be counting out Carson for week 4. The Seahawks want to establish the run – & Carson is the man that accomplish that for Pete Carroll.
Other things of note from this viz: There were 4 players with positive movement (blue ‘comets’): Alvin Kamara, Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram, & Joe Mixon. Kamara ended up being the top RB for week 3 but was the 4th highest priced & Ingram had the biggest movement from 18th to 2nd. There were also 4 players that had very little movement: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, & Nick Chubb – these players performed exactly as expected.
Mid Priced Running Backs ($5.4K – $4.1K)
The chart below shows mid priced RBs going into week 3. The fat tip is the projected rank & the skinny tip is the actual rank, orange shows negative movement & blue shows positive movement.
The mid priced running backs is the spot that can make a good week into an exceptional week. Finding value in this salary range is huge – so lets take a closer look to see who over performed in week 3. The players with the largest positive movement were: LeSean McCoy, Chris Thompson, Frank Gore, & Phillip Lindsay – these are the players we will highlight.
LeSean McCoy (Week 3 Price: $5K | Actual Value: $7.2K) & Andy Reid turned back the clock to 2011 when Shady McCoy was killing the NFC East for the Eagles. So does Shady have what it takes to put up numbers weekly in 2019? I think the answer to that is yes, especially under Andy Reid – but I will be cautious. I am going to wait to see how he fits in the game plan going forward, but definitely keeping an eye on him week in and week out.
Chris Thompson (Week 3 Price: $4.5K | Actual Value: $5.6K) outperformed his value by $1.1K. He is a huge part of the passing game (avg 65 yds/gm) but not involved in the rushing game (avg 14 yds/gm). I think Thompson has value because he should have the targets every game to put up points – he has a very high floor but also a very low ceiling.
Frank Gore (Week 3 Price: $4.4K | Actual Value: $6.2K) will not die – somehow someway Gore continues to provide value year in and year out. With Devin Singletary nursing a hamstring injury – I expect Gore to be a big part of the offense in the interim. Scoop Gore up if he remains at this price range.
Phillip Lindsay (Week 3 Price: $4.3K | Actual Value: $8.7K) was the 3rd most productive RB in week 3 making him the most valuable when comparing week 3 price to actual value. He outperformed his week 3 price by $4.4K. Lindsay had 150 yards & 2 TDs – but can we count on him for week 4? I think Lindsay is talented but it all just depends how the Broncos decide to use him. I will be keeping an eye on Lindsay for week 4 as I do more research this week.
Other things of note from this viz – the players with the largest negative movement (long orange ‘comets’) were: Josh Jacobs, Malcolm Brown, Ty Montgomery, Latavius Murray – meaning these players were overpriced & under-performed in week 3. There were only 3 players that had very little movement: David Montgomery, Devonta Freeman, & Justin Jackson – these players performed exactly as expected.
High Priced Wide Receivers ($7.8K – $6.2K)
The chart below shows the high priced WRs going into week 3. The fat tip is the projected rank & the skinny tip is the actual rank, orange shows negative movement & blue shows positive movement.
High priced receivers are sexy but are they worth the price for DFS week in and week out? Let’s take a look at the WRs that had the largest negative movement – meaning they were overvalue and under-performed in week 3. I’m going to look at the post week 3 rankings & cross reference with the same pre-week 3 ranking & utilize that price. For example: Cooper Kupp cost $6.4K & ranked 15 going into week 3 but actually ranked 3rd for week 3. Therefore he should have been priced as the 3rd priced WR which was $7.6K – meaning he was undervalued by $1.2K.
The WRs that had the largest negative movement were: DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Devante Adams, Chris Godwin, & Kenny Golladay – these are the players I will highlight:
DeAndre Hopkins (Week 3 Price: $7.8K | Actual Value: $4.9K)
Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 3 Price: $7.7K | Actual Value: $4.7K)
Devante Adams (Week 3 Price: $7.6K | Actual Value: $4.4K)
I grouped these WRs together because these were the top 3 highest priced WRs going into week 3 and severely under performed – their rank averaged together came out to be the 44th best WR for week 3. So this begs the question – are the top dogs worth paying for? For week 3 the answer was no, but I do not think that is the case week in and week out. Specifically Hopkins & Adams will have value week in and week out because they have the QB talent & offensive scheme to continue being successful. Beckham is a little different story & wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Beckham ends up flaming out as the season continues. Mayfield isn’t consistent yet & the nonstop turmoil in Cleveland could make it difficult for Beckham to succeed. When choosing the most expensive WRs – base your decision on favorable match-ups & scheme rather than flashy names
Chris Godwin (Week 3 Price: $6.9K | Actual Value: $3.8K) did not have as good of a game as Mike Evans – and that is the risk you take every time you select Godwin. He was overpriced by $3.1K in week 3. Personally I do not like Godwin at this price point going forward – Winston is not good enough to have two top WRs & I think Evans is the clear cut number 1 option.
Kenny Golladay (Week 3 Price: $6.6K | Actual Value: $3.2K) sucked in week 3. I had high expectations for him & for this I am sorry. Golladay has talent but I do not think he has the scheme or the consistency to be priced this high week in and week out. I will be avoiding Golladay unless he drops in price.
Other things of note from this viz – the players with the largest positive movement (long blue ‘comets’) were: Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, & Tyler Lockett – meaning these players were underpirced & out-performed in week 3. There were also 5 players that had very little movement: Julio Jones, Adam thielen, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, & Julian Edelman – these players performed exactly as expected.
Mid Priced Wide Receivers ($6K – $4.9K)
The chart below shows the mid priced WRs going into week 3. The fat tip is the projected rank & the skinny tip is the actual rank, orange shows negative movement & blue shows positive movement.
Mid priced WRs can end up having tremendous value if selected properly, lets take a look at the WRs that overperformed the most. The WRs that had the largest positive movement were: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Mecole Hardman, & Sterling Shepard – these are the players I will highlight:
Christian Kirk (Week 3 Price: $5K | Actual Value: $5.6K) has established a solid rapport with Kyler Murray. Combine that with the fact that the Cardinals run the most no huddle plays in the NFL – I think Kirk will have value week in and week out. Keep an eye on him for week 4.
Marvin Jones (Week 3 Price: $5K | Actual Value: $6.7K) is priced where Kenny Golladay should be. I do not see much difference in these WRs fantasy value going forward. Stafford fancied Jones over Golladay in week 3 & I expect that to happen many more times this season. If Jones remains at this price, I think he is a great play.
Mecole Hardman (Week 3 Price: $5K | Actual Value: $6.2K) benefits greatly from Tyreke Hill being out. Hardman is actually the WR I prefer from the Chiefs (s/o Sammy Watkins). I think he has big play ability and will see enough targets while Hill is out – play Hardman.
Sterling Shepard (Week 3 Price: $4.9K | Actual Value: $7.3K) is the best option Daniel Mothafuckin Jones has (especially now that Barkely is out) – so that in itself has tremendous value. Shepard was priced at $4.9K but should have been priced at $7.3K. I do not think he will be this productive week in and week out, but at this price he is worth a play. If Jones is for real – Shepard has the potential to be a legit WR1.
Other things of note from this viz – the players with the largest negative movement (long orange ‘comets’) were: Stefon Diggs, Marquise Brown, Calvin Ridley, & John Ross – meaning these players were overpriced & under-performed in week 3. There were also 1 player that had very little movement (Josh Gordon) – meaning he performed exactly as expected.
Ask me any questions about Data, Visuals, DFS, etc. on Twitter (@StephenDataViz) or Instagram (@StephenDataViz)
