Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations – today our focus is top 10 wide receivers.
The purpose of today’s viz is to see what Top 10 WRs have been consistent through the 1st 5 weeks & which have not. In this viz we will utilize pts per game, positive & negative game trends, & median pts scored to explore the WR position.
Today’s viz is a stepped line graph that shows how many fantasy points (PPR) each player scored week in and week out – each circle represents a new week. The color of the graph indicates whether that player has a positive trend or negative trend (blue means good & orange means bad) heading into week 6. The color of the text bar indicates whether that players median pts per game is > 18 pts per game or < 18 pts per game (green means great & gold means good). The grey shaded part represents the upper & lower quartile.
I decided to create this viz because I wanted to see what elite WRs performed week in and week out & which elite WRs had good weeks but followed it up with absolute duds. Before we jump into the analysis lets define a few key terms.
Key Terms
Median is the point in the distribution where half the numbers are lower and half the numbers are higher. It is the midpoint – basically there is an equal probability for the next game to fall above or below the median line.
Upper Quartile is the median of the top half of the data. Basically it is the mid point of the numbers above the original median – this will act as the top of our range.
Lower Quartile is the median of the bottom half of the data. Basically it is the mid point of the numbers below the original median – this will act as the bottom of our range.
Now that we understand median, upper quartile, & lower quartile – lets take a closer look at the viz.
The first thing to focus on in this viz is the general shape of the line. As you can see there are many shapes and sizes – some are erratic (Amari Cooper / Keenan Allen) & some are very consistent (Michael Thomas & Courtland Sutton).
The second is the color of the line. I am utilizing positive & negative trends for line color because I wanted to highlight the most recent performance of each wide receiver.
Third is the shaded area – which is the upper & lower quartile. We do this to establish a range of values – so we can highlight which WRs are consistent and which are not. The most consistent WRs have the smallest grey shaded area – but be careful this can be deceiving. Take a look at Tyler Lockett. His grey shaded area is very small meaning he is very consistent, but he consistently scores around 14 pts per game. Meanwhile Chris Godwin’s grey shaded area is much larger – meaning he is less consistent, but his median pts per game is 12pts higher. Obvisouly Godwin is the better pick even though he is ‘less consistent’.
With all that said – lets take a look at some interesting notes.
Interesting Notes
Chris Godwin ($6.7K) came into the season as the 2nd best WR on his team. 5 weeks through the season he is now the highest scoring WR in Fantasy Football (PPR) & 2nd in median pts per game. Godwin’s price does not reflect his productivity. If he continues to be priced < $7K – he will have real value going forward. Godwin is a stud and until he is priced as one – continue drafting him.
Michael Thomas ($7.8K) is the model of consistency in 2019 – except for his week 5 outlier of 41.2 pts. This outbreak helped boost him to 2nd over in fantasy points, but his median is 7.2 pts per game less than Godwin. Hopefully week 5 is a preview of what’s to come – stick with Thomas as him and Bridgewater continue developing a solid rapport.
Cooper Kupp ($7.1K) may be my favorite fantasy WR in the league. His consistency combined with his ability to put up big plays – makes him a perfect staple week in and week out. He hasn’t scored less than 26 pts per game in his last 3 – expect that same type of production for week 6. Kupp is a solid start week in and week out.
Amari Cooper ($7K) had a great week 5 (39.6 pts) after putting up a stinker in week 4 (9.8 pts). He ranks 3rd overall in median pts per game but is priced as the 6th expensive WR. With a favorable matchup against the Jets in week 6 – Cooper should have a good week. I’m predicting Cooper to have 90+ yards & a TD in week 6.
D.J. Chark ($5.5K) is the biggest beneficiary from Mishew Mania – ranking 5th amongst WRs in overall fantasy points. Chark put up 36.4 in his last game – which I think is an aberration. Chark will not be a top 5 WR at the end of the season but at $5.5K – he will be a bargain certain weeks. He is playing at home this week – so this week may be a good week to take a flyer on Chark.
Keenan Allen ($7K) production has plummeted, going from 43.6 to 9.8 to 5.8 pts in the past 3 weeks. I will not be playing Allen in week 6 & will wait for him to get back to consistently putting up points before I spend money on Keenan.
Julio Jones ($8K) has not been consistent over the past 5 weeks – with a range of 17.5. We just cannot trust Jones week in and week out – I will be staying away from him at this price.
Will Fuller V ($6K) put up a ridiculous 53.7 pts in week 5. To put that in perspective before week 5 his highest output was 10.1 & when you add up the previous 4 weeks it totals 32.3 (21.4 pts less). Fuller will not reproduce his week 5 output ever – I will cautiously stay away for now but keep an eye on him going forward. Watson is such a stud that Fuller’s value may sky rocket, but for now I will sit and wait.
Courtland Sutton ($5K) is the best WR no one knows or cares about. His median pts per game of 19 is 4th in the NFL. At $5K – Sutton is a steal.
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