Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations – today our focus is top 10 running backs.
The purpose of today’s viz is to see what Top 10 RBs have been consistent through the 1st 5 weeks & which have not. In this viz we will utilize pts per game, positive & negative game trends, & median pts scored to explore the RB position.
Today’s viz is a stepped line graph that shows how many fantasy points (PPR) each player scored week in and week out – each circle represents a new week. The color of the graph indicates whether that player has a positive trend or negative trend (blue means good & orange means bad) heading into week 6. The color of the text bar indicates whether that players median pts per game is > 18 pts per game or < 18 pts per game (green means great & gold means good). The grey shaded part represents the upper & lower quartile.
I decided to create this viz because I wanted to see what elite RBs performed week in and week out & which RBs had good weeks but followed it up with absolute duds. Before we jump into the analysis lets define a few key terms.
Key Terms
Median is the point in the distribution where half the numbers are lower and half the numbers are higher. It is the midpoint – basically there is an equal probability for the next game to fall above or below the median line.
Upper Quartile is the median of the top half of the data. Basically it is the mid point of the numbers above the original median – this will act as the top of our range.
Lower Quartile is the median of the bottom half of the data. Basically it is the mid point of the numbers below the original median – this will act as the bottom of our range.
Now that we understand median, upper quartile, & lower quartile – lets take a deeper dive into the viz.
The first thing to focus on in this viz is the general shape of the line. As you can see there are many shapes and sizes – some are erratic (Christian McCaffery / Aaron Jones) & some are very consistent (Dalvin Cook & Leonard Fournette).
The second is the color of the line. I am utilizing positive & negative trends for line color because I wanted to highlight the most recent performance of each running back.
Third is the shaded area – which is the upper & lower quartile. We do this to establish a range of values – so we can highlight which RBs are consistent and which are not. The most consistent RBs have the smallest grey shaded area – but be careful this can be deceiving. Take a look at Derrick Henry. His grey shaded area is very small meaning he is very consistent, but he consistently scores around 13 pts per game. Meanwhile Christian McCaffrey’s grey shaded area is larger – meaning he is less consistent, but his median pts per game is 20 pts higher. Obvisouly McCaffrey is the better pick even though he is ‘less consistent’.
With all that said – lets take a look at some interesting notes.
Interesting Notes
Christian McCaffrey ($8.6K) is a beast no doubt about it. There is no arguing that his ceiling is as high as any RB in the league, but is he consistently great? He has had only one bad game (Week 2: 7.3 Pts) but has more than made up for it in his next 3 (27.8 / 33.9 / 47.7). McCaffrey is one of 3 RBs who have a 2 game positive trend – but what separates McCaffrey from the rest of the pack is his ridiculously high median (33.9) – 8.1 pts higher than the 2nd place RB. McCaffrey is the real deal – expect him to score around 25 pts per game for the rest of the season.
Austin Ekeler ($6.4K) has been the biggest surprise of the 2019 season. Among RBs – he ranks 2nd in overall points, 3rd in median points scored per game, & has been one of the most consistent RBs through the 1st 5 weeks. Well, throw all those stats out the window – cuz shit done changed. Melvin Gordon is back with the Chargers – so that means Ekeler’s role will no doubt change. I see a much bigger role for Gordon in week 6 & going forward. So, the question isn’t will Ekeler remain the 2nd best RB, but will Ekeler still have value splitting time with Gordon? I will cautiously stay away from both Charger RBs until we see more tape of them both in uniform.
Dalvin Cook ($8.4K) is as consistent as they come – his lowest game this season is 19 & his highest is 28 (median of 25.8). Dalvin Cook will continue being a top 3 RB. Let’s hope Cousin’s & the Vikings offense can spread the ball around enough so Cook can have a clean box to attack.
Aaron Jones ($6.5K) went off last week & exploded for 49.2 pts. Obviously he will not be able to match that this week but does he have value? his median of 17.8 is 5th overall – which isn’t terrible. Personally, I think Jones will have real value in Green Bay’s offense going forward. As long as he is priced outside the top 7 – I think there is real value in picking Jones.
Nick Chubb ($7.3K) is a fraud – he has only one game > 20 pts & his median pts scored is only 17.1. The Brown’s offense is a mess – I am not trusting Chubb until his price plummets outside the top 10.
Alvin Kamara ($8K) has been a let down so far in 2019. He ranks 6th in total pts & 7th in median pts per game – but is consistently priced as a top 5 RB. Kamara has put up big points (week 3: 37.1) but also put up a stinker (week 2: 7). The Saint’s offense is different under Teddy but Kamara will continue to have value going forward – as long as he stays around $8K.
David Johnson ($7.6K) plays for one of the highest paced offenses in the league. He is also one of the premier dual threat RBs in the NFl. He is one of the most conistent RBs in 2019 – expect that to continue as Kyler Murray gets more comfortable in the offense as the season progresses.
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