Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations – today our focus is top 10 Quarterbacks.
The purpose of today’s viz is to see what Top 10 QBs have been consistent through the 1st 5 weeks & which have not. In this viz we will utilize pts per game, positive & negative game trends, & median pts scored to explore the QB position.
Today’s viz is a stepped line graph that shows how many fantasy points (PPR) each player scored week in and week out – each circle represents a new week. The color of the graph indicates whether that player has a positive trend or negative trend (blue means good & orange means bad) heading into week 6. The color of the text bar indicates whether that players median pts per game is > 18 pts per game or < 18 pts per game (green means great & gold means good). The grey shaded part represents the upper & lower quartile.
I decided to create this viz because I wanted to see what elite QBs actually performed week in and week out instead of putting up big numbers one week & dropping the ball the next. Before we jump into the analysis lets define a few key terms.
Key Terms
Median is the point in the distribution where half the numbers are lower and half the numbers are higher. It is the midpoint – basically there is an equal probability for the next game to fall above or below the median line.
Upper Quartile is the median of the top half of the data. Basically it is the mid point of the numbers above the original median – this will act as the top of our range.
Lower Quartile is the median of the bottom half of the data. Basically it is the mid point of the numbers below the original median – this will act as the bottom of our range.
Now that we understand median, upper quartile, & lower quartile – lets take a closer look at the viz.
The first thing to focus on in this viz is the general shape of the line. As you can see there are many shapes and sizes – some are erratic (Russell Wilson / Deshaun Watson) & some are very consistent (Kyler Murray / Carson Wentz).
The second is the color of the line. I am utilizing positive & negative trends for line color because I wanted to highlight the most recent performance of each quarterback.
Third is the shaded area – which is the upper & lower quartile. We do this to establish a range of values – so we can highlight which QBs are consistent and which are not. The most consistent QBs have the smallest grey shaded area – but be careful this can be deceiving. Take a look at Carson Wentz. His grey shaded area is very small meaning he is very consistent, but he consistently scores around 19 pts per game. Meanwhile Christian Lamar Jackson’s grey shaded area is larger – meaning he is less consistent, but his median pts per game is 7 pts higher. Is Jackson the obvious pick over Wentz for week 6? Continue reading to find out.
With all that said – lets take a look at some interesting notes.
Interesting Notes
Lamar Jackson ($6.9K) started out hot but unfortunately looks like he is trending in the wrong direction. Fortunately for him he has the Bengals terrible D in Baltimore – so for this week he is worth the price.
Russell Wilson ($6.6K) is 2nd best Fantasy QB in total points but hasnt been as reliable as some would think. He had an unbelievable week 3 (41.3 pts), followed that up with a stinker week 4 (14.3 pts), but totally redeemed himself in week 5 scoring 30 pts. The Seahawks travel east to Cleveland – my gut tells me to stay away from Wilson during this week.
Deshaun Watson ($6.7K) is dynamic – he puts up big plays & big points. It doesn’t hurt that his week 6 matchup against Mahomes & the chief should be high flying. Expect Watson to keep up with Mahomes in week 6 & put up big numbers.
Patrick Mahomes ($7.5K) has been slightly underwhelming up until this point. Of course this is because he has set the standard so high in weeks past. His last 2 weeks has been 18 & 18.5. I do not expect this to be the new trend – bet on Mahome snapping out of this fog with a big game in week 6 against the Texans.
Dak Prescott ($6.2K) has been consistently great if you disregard his week 4 performance (8.6 pts). His upper & lower quartile are very close together (28.7 & 26.2) making him a safe bet up until this point. The question now is do you trust a rookie offensive coordinator to lead a QB that may not be able to make all the throws deep into the season? Personally I am waiting for the fall of Dak but playing against the Jets in week 6 – expect him to continue putting up big points at least for this week.
Kyler Murray ($6.5K) has been sneaky good & sneaky consistent. He plays in one of the fastest paced offesnes in the league & with decent weapons around him (Fitz, Johnson, Kirk) – I expect Murray to get better. I think he will move into the top 5 QBs when the season is over.
Tom Brady ($6.8K) is a god amongst us – no debating that. But that is in real life not fantasy – so is Brady worth the price or not? If you play Brady week in and week out – his median is 24.7 which ranks 5th in the NFl. His matchup at home this week against the Giants should work in his favor, but priced at $6.8K – I think there are better options.
Carson Wentz ($6K) is as consistent as they come. His upper quartile & lower quartile are only 2 pts away. Wentz will put up 20 pts per game but priced at $6K – I will pass.
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