Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview using data science & data visualizations – today our focus is wide receivers.
It all started with a question: Are the most expensive WRs really worth the price? As I’ve watched the last 4 weeks of football & curate my lineup week in and week out – it seems like the most expensive WRs did not perform up to expectations. So I decided to jump into the numbers & explore some key statistics that make a WR a successful fantasy player – targets per game, yards per target, & total TDs.
First we will explore 3 histogram charts that take a look at targets per game, yards per targets, & total TDs across the entire NFL. Then we will take a deeper dive, using these stats (targets per game, yards per target & total TDs), to understand which WRs have the best value in each price range.
Why Use Histograms? A histogram chart is a distribution graph that shows how well each set of data performs compared to the other sets. In this instance the sets of data is salary range. So for this graph to make sense the first thing I did was bucket the salaries ($400 each bucket) – this way we can take a look at each range of salaries & understand how each perform compared to the other salaries. I did this because there were too many unique salary points. I did not want to look at a small volume of WRs that would skew the data – so I bucketed the WRs by $400 intervals. For example: DeAndre Hopkins is the only WR priced at $7.8K but there are 4 priced at $5K – obviously just looking at 1 WR stats would skew the data. So with that said – let’s see if the high priced WRs are really worth the price of admission.
Targets Per Game
I think targets per game is the most important statistic when it comes to choosing WRs & statistics backs that assumption. After plotting targets per game & Draft Kings Fantasy Points – I found these have an unbelievably high correlation (.81 r squared value). This means the more targets per game the more likely you will score fantasy points. So let’s look to see how the average targets per game is distributed across the league. For this graph – orange means that particular salary range averages < 7 targets per game & blue means they average > 7 targets per game.
As you can see from the chart, the most expensive WRs do not average the most targets per game. In actuality, the second highest range ($7K – $7.4K) average 10 targets per game compared to 9.1 for the highest range ($7.5K – $7.8K). In fact the third highest range ($6.5K – $6.9K) only average .2 targets per game less than the highest priced WRs. Let’s keep looking at yards per target & total TDs to see if we find any similar trends.
Yards Per Target
Yards per target is an important stat because it shows that the WR can make explosive plays & make the most of the targets they receive. If a WR has low yards per target – it makes it very tough for that WR to put up fantasy points. In this graph orange means that salary range averages < 9 yards per target & blue means they average > 9 yards per target.
As you can see from the chart, the most expensive WRs are underwhelming when it comes to yards per target (8.8). Again the second most expensive range ($7K – $7.4K) out performs the most expensive range (.6 yds per tgt) – we may be seeing a trend.
The middle priced WRs ($5K – $5.9K) perform better than the rest of the league but we learned from the previous viz that they average at least 2 less targets per game than the most expensive WRs – which drops the value of these WRs tremendously. If you can find a WR in this range that will have a large amount of targets & high yards per target – that is the WR we need to target. We will take a closer look at that later, but for now lets take a look at total TDs across the league.
Total TDs
Obviously TDs are important for a great fantasy player. Let’s take a look at past performance to predict future performance & see what players are capable of putting up TDs.
Again the second the most expensive range outperforms the most expensive range (avg 2.7 TDs compared to 2 TDs) & the third most expensive range ($6.5 – $6.9K) actually out performs the most expensive as well (avg 2. compared to 2).
So what did we learn? The second most expensive range has outperformed the most expensive WRs in all 3 statistics so far this year. From a big picture perspective – the highest priced WRs do not provide the proper value for their price & in fact the second range of WRs ($7K – $7.4K) not only provides better value but actually outperforms the most expensive WRs in all 3 key stats. Although the stats overwhelmingly tells us the most expensive WRs are not worth the price – this does not mean avoid all expensive WRs. What we do have is a new piece of information with statistics & analysis backing it which gives us a different perspective when making final roster decisions. With that knowledge locked and loaded – let’s take a look at each price range & see where we can find real value for week 5.
For the graphs below the length of the bar is targets per game, the color is yards per target (orange = bad & blue = good) & the grey circle is total TDs. These charts tell us what WRs receive high targets per game, turn those targets into big plays, & have the ability to score TDs.
High Priced WRs ($7.8K – $6.5K)
WRs I Would Play: Keenan Allen ($7.3K) | Amari Cooper ($6.8K) | Sammy Watkins ($6.7K)
WRs I Would Avoid: DeAndre Hopkins ($7.8K) | Odell Beckham Jr. ($7K) | Adam Thielen ($6.7K) | Tyler Boyd ($6.5K)
Mid Priced WRs ($6.4K – $5.5K)
WRs I Would Play: Julian Edelman ($6.3K) | T.Y. Hilton ($6.2K) | Larry Fitzgerald ($6K) | Sterling Shepard ($5.8K)
WRs I Would Avoid: Alshon Jeffery ($5.9K) | Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5.6K) | Allen Robinson II ($5.6K)
Mid Priced WRs Continued ($5.4K – $5K)
WRs I Would Play: Demarcus Robinson ($5.3) | Dede Westbrook ($5.3K) | Christian Kirk ($5K)
WRs I Would Avoid: Tyrell Williams ($5.2K) | DJ Moore ($5.2K) | DJ Chark Jr. ($5K)
Cheapish WRs ($4.9K – $4.5K)
WRs I Would Play: Phillip Dorsett II ($4.9K) | Courtland Sutton ($4.9) | Cole Beasley ($4.6K)
WRs I Would Avoid: Parris Campbell ($4.6K) | Robby Anderson ($4.5K) | Paul Richardson Jr. ($4.5K)
Cheap WRs ($4.4K – $4K)
WRs I Would Play: Deebo Samuel ($4.4K) | Corey Davis ($4.4)
WRs I Would Avoid: The Rest
Ask me any questions about Data, Visuals, DFS, etc. on Twitter (@StephenDataViz) or Instagram (@StephenDataViz)
