Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview using data science & data visualizations – today our focus is running backs.
After exploring WRs and utilizing histogram charts – I decided to do the same for the running back preview. The three stats I will be utilizing is attempts per game, yards per attempt, & Total TDs. Obviously, we are ignoring receptions & only focusing on rushing attempts, so keep that in mind when making decisions based on these visuals. Unfortunately the RB histograms are not as exciting as the WR histograms – but they do provide insightful info we can utilize when creating our lineup.
First we will explore 3 histogram charts that take a look at attempts per game, yards per attempt, & total TDs across the entire NFL. Then we will take a deeper dive, using these stats (attempts per game, yards per attempt, & total TDs), to understand which RBs have the best value in each price range.
Why Use Histograms? A histogram chart is a distribution graph that shows how well each set of data performs compared to the other sets. In this instance the sets of data is salary range. So for this graph to make sense the first thing I did was bucket the salaries ($700 each bucket) – this way we can take a look at each range of salaries & understand how each perform compared to the other salaries. I did this because there were too many unique salary points. I did not want to look at a small volume of RBs that would skew the data – so I bucketed the RBs by $700 intervals. For example: Christian McCaffrey is the only RB priced at $8.7K but there are 4 priced at $45K – obviously just looking at 1 RB stats would skew the data. So with that said – let’s see if the high priced RB are really worth the price of admission.
Attempts Per Game
I think attempts per game is the most important statistic when it comes to choosing RBs & statistics backs that assumption. After plotting attempts per game & Draft Kings Fantasy Points – I found these have a high correlation (.69 r squared value). This means the more attempts per game the more likely you will score fantasy points. So let’s look to see how the average attempts per game is distributed across the league. For this graph – orange means that particular salary range averages < 14 attempts per game & blue means they average > 14 attempts per game.
The high priced RBs receive more attempts than the lower cost RBs. The only interesting note is that after the 4th tier – the attempts per game falls off a cliff (14.1 to 9.2).
Yards Per Attempt
Yards per attempt is an important stat because it shows that the RB can make explosive plays & make the most of each rushing attempt. If a RB has low yards per attempt – it makes it very tough for that RB to put up fantasy points. In this graph orange means that salary range averages <4.5 yards per attempt & blue means they average > 4.5 yards per attempt.
Again, nothing really stands out here – everything looks as expected. The high priced RBs have a higher yards per attempt with the remaining salary ranges falling into order – with the exception of the $4K – $4.7K range.
Total TDs
Obviously TDs are important for a great fantasy player. Let’s take a look at past performance to predict future performance & see what players are capable of putting up TDs.
Now we get some interesting information. It appears the second highest salary range scores more TDs than the highest range (3.5 to 3). Again we see a similar patter after the 4th range ($5.6K – $6.3). There is a major drop off in total TDs (from 2.7 to 1.3).
What did we learn? High priced running backs are generally worth the price, but there is a lot of parity among the top 4 ranges. This tells me there is value among the top 4 ranges ($8.7K – $5.6K) – and if you choose carefully you can avoid paying top dollar for RBs while still getting top production. With that being said, lets take a deep dive into the RB position utilizing attempts per game, yards per attempt & total TDs to see who will have value in week 5.
High Priced RBs($8.7K – $6.7K)
RBs I Would Play: Alvin Kamara ($8.6K) | Dalvin Cook ($8.4K) | Nick Chubb ($7.2K)
RBs I Would Avoid: Christian McCaffrey ($8.7K) | Ezekiel Elliott ($8.3K) | Le’Veon Bell ($6.8K) | Austin Ekeler ($6.7K)
Mid Priced RBs ($6.4K – $5.5K)
RBsI Would Play: Leonard Fournette ($6.4K) | Joe Mixon ($6.1K) | Derrick Henry ($6K) | LeSean McCoy ($5.8K)
RBsI Would Avoid: Mark Ingram II ($6.3K) | James Conner ($6.2K) | Damien Williams ($5.7K)
Mid Priced RBs Continued ($5.3K – $4.5K)
RBs I Would Play: Matt Breida ($5.1) | Jordan Howard ($5.1K) | Phillip Lindsay ($4.9K) | Josh Jacobs ($4.5K)
RBs I Would Avoid: Devonta Freeman ($5.3K) | David Montgomery ($5.2K) | James White ($5K) | Nyheim Hines ($4.8K)
Cheap RBs ($4.4K – $4K)
RBs I Would Play: Peyton Barber ($4.3K) | Carlos Hyde ($4.3)
RBs I Would Avoid: The Rest
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