Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview using data science & data visualizations – today our focus is wide receivers.
We are going to explore yards per game, explosive plays (20+ yd receptions) & opponent points allowed per game to see if we can predict what WRs will have value in week 4. Continue reading as I take a deep dive into the Wide Receiver position or if you want to just scroll through and look at the pictures – I bolded a few key statements to allow you to follow along as well.
The week’s viz is a scatter plot that utilizes opponent points allowed per game (y-axis) & receiving yards per game (x-axis) to find out what WRs will have the best opportunity to have a big week in week 4. The WRs highlighted all average > 21 fantasy pts per game. This scatter plot attempts to tell us what WRs have a high yards per game & are playing a poor defense. Keenan Allen is far and away the obvious pick – he leads the league in yds per game (134.7) & is playing the Miami Dolphins this week (44.3 pts allowed/game). Among the top tier WRs – Julio Jones appears to have the toughest match up – playing the Tennessee Titans (17.3 pts allowed/game). Let’s take a closer look at the receiver position to see if there is any information we can find that will help us predict week 4 performance.
High Priced Wide Receivers ($7.8K – $6K)
The chart below shows the 18 most expensive WRs (DK) & their fantasy points per game. The color of the bar is based on yards per reception (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd receptions), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. So for example you can see Kennan Allen is playing the Dolphins – that’s why his circle is the farthest right and the darkest. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the WRs that have the best set up. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per reception, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
High Priced Receivers I Would Target:
Keenan Allen ($7.6K / Opponent: MIA)
Amari Cooper ($7.3K / Opponent: NO)
Cooper Kupp ($6.5K / Opponent: TB)
Tyler Lockett ($6.3K / Opponent: ARI)
High Priced Receivers I Would Not Target:
DeAndre Hopkins ($7.7K / Opponent: CAR)
Michael Thomas ($7K / Opponent: DAL)
Julian Edelman ($6.5K / Opponent: BUF)
Robert Woods ($6.1K / Opponent: TB)
Mid Priced Wide Receivers ($5.9K – $5K)
The color of the bar is based on yards per reception (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd receptions), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the WRs that have the best set up. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per reception, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
Mid Priced Receivers I Would Target:
Marquise Brown ($5.8K / Opponent: CLE)
Larry Fitzgerald ($5.6K / Opponent: SEA)
Demarcus Robinson ($5.2K / Opponent: DET)
D.J. Chark Jr. ($5.1K / Opponent: DEN)
Mid Priced Receivers I Would Not Target:
Kenny Golladay ($5.9K / Opponent: KC)
Allen Robinson II ($5.6K / Opponent: MIN)
Stefon Diggs ($5.5K / Opponent: CHI)
Jarvis Landry ($5.1K / Opponent: BAL)
Cheapish Priced Wide Receivers ($4.9K – $4.2K)
The color of the bar is based on yards per reception (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd receptions), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the WRs that have the best set up. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per reception, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
Cheapish Priced Receivers I Would Target:
John Ross ($4.9K / Opponent: PIT)
DK Metcalf ($4.8K / Opponent: ARI)
Courtland Sutton ($4.6K / Opponent: JAX)
Terry McLaurin ($4.5K / Opponent: NYG) *Pending injury status
Cheapish Priced Receivers I Would Not Target:
Cole Beasley ($4.7K / Opponent: NE)
Will Fuller V ($4.5K / Opponent: CAR)
Kenny Stills ($4.2K / Opponent: CAR)
Cheap Priced Wide Receivers ($4.1K – $3.6K)
The color of the bar is based on yards per reception (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd receptions), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the WRs that have the best set up. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per reception, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
Cheap Priced Receivers I Would Target:
Chris Conley ($4K / Opponent: DEN)
Paul Richardson Jr. ($3.7K / Opponent: NYG)
A.J. Brown ($3.7K / Opponent: ATL)
Cheap Priced Receivers I Would Not Target:
Albert Wilson ($4K / Opponent: LAC)
Hunter Renfrow ($3.8K / Opponent: IND)
Anthony Miller ($3.7K / Opponent: MIN)
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