Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview using data science & data visualizations – today our focus is running backs.
We are going to explore yards per game, explosive plays (20+ yd runs) & opponent points allowed per game to see if we can predict what RBs will have value in week 4. Continue reading as I take a deep dive into the running back position or if you want to just scroll through and look at the pictures – I bolded a few key statements to allow you to follow along as well.
The week’s viz is a scatter plot that utilizes opponent points allowed per game (y-axis) & rushing yards per game (x-axis) to find out what RBs will have the best opportunity to have a big week in week 4. The RBs highlighted all average > 15 fantasy pts per game. This scatter plot attempts to tell us what RBs has high yards per game & playing a poor defense. As you can see Dalvin Cook appears to have a tough match up, but lets take a deeper dive into the position to see what RBs we should play in week 4.
High Priced Running Backs ($7.8K – $6K)
The chart below shows the 15 most expensive RBs (DK) & their fantasy points per game. The color of the bar is based on rushing yards per attempt (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd runs), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. So for example you can see Austin Ekeler is playing the Dolphins – that’s why his circle is the farthest right and the darkest. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the RBs that have the best set up in week 4. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per rush, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
High Priced Running Backs I Would Target:
Ezekiel Elliott ($8.9K / Opponent: NO)
Christian McCaffrey ($8.8K / Opponent: HOU)
Mark Ingram II ($6.6K / Opponent: CLE)
Derrick Henry ($6.3K / Opponent: ATL)
Marlon Mack ($6.1K / Opponent: OAK)
High Priced Running Backs I Would Not Target:
Austin Ekeler ($8K / Opponent: MIA)
Todd Gurley II ($7K / Opponent: TB)
James Conner ($6.5K / Opponent: CIN)
Nick Chubb ($6.4K / Opponent: BAL)
Leonard Fournette ($6K / Opponent: DEN)
Mid Priced Running Backs ($5.7K – $4.6K)
The color of the bar is based on rushing yards per attempt (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd runs), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the RBs that have the best set up in week 4. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per rush, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
Mid Priced Running Backs I Would Target:
Chris Carson ($5.7K / Opponent: ARI)
LeSean McCoy ($5.6K / Opponent: DET)
Kerryon Johnson ($5.4K / Opponent: KC)
Mid Priced Running Backs I Would Not Target:
Sony Michel ($5.5K / Opponent: BUF)
James White ($4.9K / Opponent: BUF)
Tony Pollard ($4.6K / Opponent: NO)
Tarik Cohen ($4.6K / Opponent: MIN)
Cheapish Priced Running Backs ($4.5K – $4.2K)
The color of the bar is based on rushing yards per attempt (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd runs), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the RBs that have the best set up in week 4. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per rush, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
Cheapish Priced Running Backs I Would Target:
Frank Gore ($4.4K / Opponent: NE)
Kenyan Drake ($4.2K / Opponent: LAC)
Rex Burkead ($4.4K / Opponent: BUF)
Cheapish Priced Running Backs I Would Not Target:
Jaylen Samuels ($4.2K / Opponent: CIN)
Devin Singletary ($4.2K / Opponent: NE)
Cheap Priced Running Backs ($4.1K – $3.5K)
The color of the bar is based on rushing yards per attempt (blue is good & orange is bad), the width of the bar is based on number of explosive plays (20+ yd runs), & the circle signifies opponents pts allowed per game. The darker grey circle that is farthest to the right indicates a high amount of points allowed. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars with the light grey circles are the RBs that have the best set up in week 4. This means that these players have proven they can score fantasy points, can put up explosive plays, averages a high yards per rush, & are playing a defense that has given up points this year.
Cheap Priced Running Backs I Would Target:
Justin Jackson ($4.1K / Opponent: MIA)
C.J. Prosise ($4K / Opponent: ARI)
Cheap Priced Running Backs I Would Not Target:
Almost all of these RBs – its tough to find value in this range.
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