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Record: 15-16 +8.24 units
Oklahoma vs West Virginia (-110)
Kyler Murray vs Will Grier, the game that I have been excited for since the beginning of the season. As I said on What’s the Spread, this will be the game of the season in the Big 12. Both high octane offenses meet for a chance to play in the Big 12 Championship. The line for this game opened as a Pick Em’, but I would feel comfortable taking Oklahoma all the way up to -3. Although the Mountaineers play outstanding football in Morgantown, my confidence in this game lies with Kyler Murray. Out of the two quarterbacks, Murray is the better all-around player. Grier is no slouch though, throwing for 3,325 yards, 33 TDs and 8 INTs. This game will be a tall task for the Sooners as the Mountaineers have won 5 straight games at home. But as I previously stated, Kyler Murray is legit. He is second in College Football in total QBR at 205.8. His stat sheet is also filled with great lines, throwing for 3,310 yards, 34 TDs and 6 INTs. The Sooners have not been particularly good at covering the spread this season (4-7 ATS), but this is another game where the Sooners finally have a favorable line. The Sooners come into this game averaging over 49 points per game and have won 5 straight. To add more comfort behind our bet, Oklahoma has won 14 of their last 15 road games. They are 4-1 ATS and 5-0 S/U in their last 5 games against the Mountaineers. Picking Oklahoma to win this game is a safe bet. I would go as far as taking them at -3. If you see it at 3.5, buy the hook.
Bet 3 units on Oklahoma PK to win 2.72 units (-110)
Washington at Washington St (-3.5)(-115)
Gardner Minshew for Heisman! Well, Heisman might be a stretch. But this kid is throwing the air out of the ball this season. Crazy to think he was a smart decision away from wasting this season on Alabama’s bench. Washington State is taking on Washington, and to be frank, at the beginning of the season everyone would have picked Washington. After the Washington State Cougars dropped 55 points at the half on Arizona last week, there is no way I am betting against them. Especially when their matchup is against a not so dominate Washington team. During the preseason, every analyst spread the same narrative. “This is Jake Browning’s year to take Washington to the Promise Land.” Safe to say that is not happening. Washington is 8-3 this season with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal. The real glaring stat is they have only covered in 2 of the 11 games played. They struggle tremendously on offense only scoring 28 points per game, compare that to Washington States 45. The Cougars on the other hand have been having a stellar season, boasting a 10-1 record while covering in 10 of those games. Like the old saying goes, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. The Cougars have not had a problem covering this season and Gardner Minshew’s 4,325 yards and 36 TDs have a lot to with that. 3.5 points at home, should be an easy cover for the Cougars as they are winning home games by an average of 47 points. If the .5 scares you, buy the hook. But I see this being at least at TD victory for Washington State.
Bet 3 units on Washington St (-3.5) to win 2.6 units (-115)
Utah St (+3) at Boise St (+100)
Utah St getting 3 points vs the Boise State Broncos is a bit of a head scratcher for me. I know the Broncos have been playing well as of late, but the Aggies have been dominating all season with their only loss coming on the road at Michigan State. A game where they led late into the game. Utah State is 9-2 ATS this season and they are 10-1 S/U. The only thing standing in the way of the Aggies is playing on the road and their recent lack of success vs the Broncos. The Aggies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against the Broncos and 1-14 S/U in their last 15 games. This Utah State team is a lot different than the others over the past years. They are dominate on both sides of the ball, averaging 49.27 points per game and only surrendering 22.09 points per game. This high scoring offense is led by Sophomore QB Jordan Love, who has thrown for 2,845 yards 25 TDs 4 INTs as well as adding another 6 on the ground. Utah State will win this game, but take the 3 points on the road.
Bet 1 unit on Utah St +3 to win .9 unit (-110)
Parlay Bet
Parlay 2 units on Buffalo -15, UCF -14.5 Notre Dame ML to win 6.82 units (+341)
