We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.
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| QB | RB | WR | Top Stack |
| M. Corral | K. Williams | J. Billingsley | Alabama |
| CJ Stroud | L. Brown | X. Worthy | Ole Miss |
| B. Young | Bijan Robinson | J. Roberson | Texas |
| M. Cunningham | T. Henderson | J. Mingo | Louisville |
| S. Hartman | D Vaughn | B. Bowers | Arkansas |
*Depending on your mobile device, you might need to tilt it sideways to view the full table*
Slate Thoughts:
Week 5
Quarterback
- There are so many great games to target this week, however, the best one is going to be the matchup between Alabama and Ole Miss. Both of the offenses in this game have been two of the most efficient offenses in the country so far this season. As of right now this game has a total set at 79, which is by far the highest on the slate. You will want to get plenty of exposure to this game in your main lineup this week. I fully believe you can play either Bryce Young or Matt Corral in your main lineup this week, and both make sense in a game stack. Lane Kiffin has shown that he is capable of scheming up ways to score on this Nick Saban defense, and I expect him to have a great game plan for Corral and the Rebels this week. Corral is my favorite of the two, and comes with slightly more upside than Young due to his ability to run the ball and extend plays, especially in the redzone. Play these guys with confidence, I expect a shootout here.
- Another guy to keep an eye on this week is CJ Stroud. It appears that Stroud is over the minor injury that kept him out last week, and is on track to make his return vs. Rutgers this weekend. Ohio State is looking to show some consistency that they have lacked early this season. Stroud has shown flashes of dominance, but also has struggled at times as well. There is no doubt that he is going to have tons of opportunities here, and his supporting cast is as good as anyone’s in the country. Rutgers has only allowed around 167 passing yards per game this year, but have not played an offense as dynamic as Ohio States. I look for Stroud, Wilson and Olave to expose this Rutgers secondary, and have a big day! Stroud is priced very reasonably this week, and can be played in all formats.
Others to consider: C. Thompson (Texas); JT Daniels (UGA); W. Howard (KSU); C. Bazelack (MIZZ); M. Duggan (TCU)
Running Back
- There is a running back that stands out to me as big time value this week, and that guy is Kyren Williams. I am not quite sure why he has received a 5k price tag this week, after only one bad outing, but I fully expect to take advantage of it. Notre Dame does have a very poor offensive line, and have struggled creating run lanes for Williams. However, Cincinnati, though solid on defense, have not been very strong vs. the run this year. On the year, Cincy has allowed 160.5 rush yards per game this year, and that bodes well for Mr. Williams. Kyren is not only someone that the Irish lean on in the run game, he is also a back that is a threat in the pass game. He had 6 receptions vs. Florida State, and was able to display his big play potential in the passing game, by taking one to the house. Play Williams with some confidence here, you will not get him at this price again.
- Leddie Brown is in a great spot this week vs. a Texas Tech defense that is allowing over 155 rush yards per game. Last week they allowed Bijan Robinson to rush for 137 yards on only 18 carries, good for 7.2 ypc. Brown isn’t the caliber of back that Robinson is, however he is still one of the best backs in that conference. Brown has had his involvement in the passing game increased this year, giving him an even higher ceiling. Not quite sure why we are getting him at a sub 7k price tag, but that is a price point I want to take advantage of, especially in a plus matchup like this one. Look for the Mountaineers to lean on Brown in this game.
- Bijann Robinson has clearly looked like the best back in the country this year. He is averaging 6.2 yards per carry, and looks to take advantage of a defense that has allowed over 240 rush yards per game. Robinson is priced way up this week, understandably, but if you have the salary for him, he makes tons of sense in this matchup. This is a smash spot for Robinson.
Others to consider: D. Vaughn (KSU); J. Small (Tennessee); Z. White (UGA); Z. Evans (TCU); T. Badie (Missouri)
Wide Receiver
- I mentioned above in the quarterback section that we will want to get multiple pieces of this Bama/Ole Miss game in our main lineup. Three guys stand out as really strong plays for me from this game. The first two come from Ole Miss, in Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo. Both of these guys lead the Rebels in targets and receptions, and look to be key pieces of this lethal passing attack. Historically the slot position in this offense has been the spot to target and that position is manned by Drummond. He has stepped into the Elijah Moore role, and has really flourished in it. He does come in priced over 1k more than Mingo, so I expect more people to go with Mingo for the savings. And while that does make tons of sense here, I really like the spot that Drummond is in, and I really think Bama will have some issues matching up with him in the slot. If I am playing an Ole Miss stack I would be playing both Drummond and Mingo stacked with Corral.
- The other player I like from this game is Jahleel Billingsley. Billingsley had a rough start to the year, after being in Sabans “Dog House” for the first few weeks due to his effort in practice and a few other personal issues. He has been given an expanded role over the last few games and really has shown how special of a talent he is. Last week he was able to pull in 5 receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown. He appears to be headed for a much larger role in this offense going forward. Billingsley is priced at only 3.6k on Draftkings this weekend, and is a core play for me. As an extremely athletic tight end he will create tons of mismatches for this Ole Miss defense.
- Texas will be coming into this matchup vs. TCU off the heels of scoring 70 points vs. Texas Tech. A big factor in that dominant victory last week was Xavier Worthy. Worthy has shown great rapport with Casey Thompson over the last couple of weeks, and I expect the same to hold true in this matchup. Worthy has caught 12 balls for 188 yards and 4 touchdowns over his last few weeks, really solidifying the number 1 wide receiver role for this Texas offense. I love Worthy and Whittington in a stack with Thompson in this spot. Both guys have huge ceilings this weekend.
Others to consider: B. Bowers (UGA); M. Mims (OU)-too cheap; D. London (USC); G. Wilson (OSU); J. Whittington (Texas); M. Mayer (ND); Q. Johnston (TCU)
Things to consider:
I believe this is a slate where you will want to pay up for two stud Quarterbacks in your main lineup, and get your value at the wide receiver position. There is tons of value on this slate that should make this type of build fairly easy. That also means that it could be a very common build this weekend. Guys that I see as chalky plays are, Billingsley, Mingo and Kyren Williams. If you want to get away from this type of build in GPP’s, I could see a USC stack being a fun way to go. Now don’t get me wrong, USC has been awful this year, but there is no denying the talent on that offense. Slovis is a guy that comes in priced low this week, and makes a ton of sense stacked with London and Washington.
Two other stacks that I expect to garner low ownership are Wake Forest and Oklahoma. Oklahoma have really disappointed college football fans this season with their lack of explosive plays, but we know what Lincoln Riley offenses are capable of, and I believe this is a weekend they could go over looked and put up a big game. I will personally have a Rattler, Mims and Williams build. Same can be said about Wake Forest. Most of the industry will be on guys like Cunningham from Louisville, and totally overlook the other side. Hartman has had a really strong start to the season, and with this game likely being a shootout, I like getting some pieces of this WF team, especially Roberson who is priced way to low!
Good luck tomorrow guys. Click the button below to join today and gain access to all of our Core Plays!
