We are excited to bring you our CFB DFS Game Theory. This piece of content is created to help break down each slate and label plays into four, very easy to follow categories: Cash, safe GPP/upside, low owned GPP, and fades. Utilizing this piece of content, along with other DFS Karma CFB content, will help make your lineup construction more effective and lead you to being a more consistent DFS player.
| QB | RB | WR | Top Stack |
| Cunningham | N. Harris | D. Fitzpatrick | Houston |
| King | L. Toafili | C. Austin III | UNC |
| Howell | Beal-Smith | Stevenson | Miami |
| C. Tune | J. Williams | D. Brown | Maryland |
| T. Tagovailoa | T. Smith | D. Demus | C. Carolina |
If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your CFB lineups.
Slate Thoughts:
- We have reached the final weeks of College football season, but before it wraps up, we have a slate featuring some very high scoring matchups. There have been a few opt-outs that are opening up some opportunities for some other players to step up and make an impact. This also opens up some much needed value for us this week, with DK pricing everyone extremely high. First off, Alabama, they are in a very nice spot tomorrow and are 30+ point favorites. Theoretically you would think that this high powered offense would make a great stack, and they would, if they were not priced as high as they are. If you were to stack just M. Jones and D. Smith that would cost you over 1/3 of your total salary, making it very difficult to fill out the rest of your roster with players other than extreme punts. So, if targeting Bama players, I would target them as one-offs. D. Smith and N. Harris are phenomenal one off plays from this Bama team.
Houston vs. Memphis
- There are so many matchups that look like fantasy gold mines, but one that particularly has my eye is this Houston/Memphis game. Both teams are explosive offensively, and play very little defense. Charlie Tune leads this Houston offense and has played very well so far this year. On the season Tune has thrown for 1,562 yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has also added 233 yards on the ground with 4 touchdowns. He will be facing an exploitable Memphis secondary who have allowed over 300 passing yards per game. I really like pairing Tune with his top wideout, Marquez Stevenson. Stevenson has 16 receptions for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. If playing this stack, it would make sense to run it back with Calvin Austin III from Memphis, who is the leading receiver for this Tigers team. Look for this game to be a track meet and both offenses finding plenty of success, especially through the passing games.
UNC vs. Miami
- UNC vs. Miami currently has the highest total of 70 points. Both of these offenses are clicking on all cylinders right now. Miami, after a covid layoff, came back and absolutely beat down Duke 48-0. D’Eric King looked phenomenal in that game throwing for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns and also rushing for 46 yards and a touchdown. He will have the benefit of facing a very poor UNC defense, that have allowed big games to opposing quarterbacks all year. King is a great play in all formats tomorrow. Jordan looked really good vs. Duke last time out and has shown great chemistry with King. I would look to pair Jordan with King, but you can also play King alone too.
- On the other side of this game we have UNC, who have put up video game-like numbers at times this year. Sam Howell, after struggling early in the year, has found his footing and really has excelled over the past 7 games. Howell has thrown for over 3,000 yards and has 26 touchdowns. He also has just over 100 rush yards and 4 touchdowns. Howell should be able to find plenty of success this weekend vs. Miami who have given up big games to opposing QB’s at times this season. UNC has not only been one of the best passing offenses in the country, they have also been a really good rushing team, led by Carter and Williams. Both of these backs see similar usage each week and typically are right at an even split of carries. Both backs are capable of going over 100 yards on the ground, but with Williams priced slightly lower than Carter this weekend, I lean towards Williams slightly. Newsome and Brown are obviously really good stacking partners to pair with QB Sam Howell. I think we are in store for one heck of a game this weekend. I can see a game stack being special here.
Louisville vs. Wake Forest
- Louisville will be operating this weekend without arguably two of their best players in TuTu Atwell and Javion Hawkins. Atwell has joined teammate Hawkins and opted out of the rest of the season. This has opened up an opportunity for the likes of Dez Fitzpatrick and Brandon Smith to take on expanded roles. Fitzpatrick has shown us that when Atwell is out he is fully capable of taking on the lead role for this team, and has put up some monster performances. I do think that DK mispriced Fitzpatrick this weekend. He is a good play in all formats. Cunningham is not only counted on to lead the passing attack for this Louisville offense, but also the rushing attack. Cunningham has had over 100 yards rushing in 2 of his last three games, and I expect him to eclipse the 100 yard mark again this week. He is capable of putting up monster numbers due to his ability to take over games with his arm and legs and on DK could easily end up with both the 300+ yard passing bonus and 100+yd rushing bonus. Cunningham is my top QB for Cash tomorrow, and is a strong play in GPP’s as well.
- Sam Hartman will be playing on the other side of this matchup, and comes with a good amount of upside here. Louisville has struggled defensively all year, and Wake Forest have been a pretty explosive team offensively. We watched Harman and the Demon Deacons put up monster numbers vs. UNC a few weeks back. I think this game is setting up to be very similar to that WF/UNC game. If looking to play Hartman, look to stack him with his top WR J. Roberson or 2nd option D. Greene.
Maryland
- Maryland still appears to be dealing with some Covid issues, and are expected to miss some players this weekend. We will not know who they are missing until tomorrow, so make sure you are in our Discord Channel so you can stay up to date on all of the latest news. If Tulia and his WR’s are all available this weekend, I will be looking to target them in GPP’s. Tulia provides us good upside through his dual threat ability. He has very talented WR’s on the outside that he is able to distribute the ball too. Rutgers is not a good defensive team, allowing 250 passing yards per game. One of my top gpp stacks (if all are ruled healthy) is Tulia, D. Demus and R. Jarrett. We have seen this Maryland team put up big numbers in favorable situations, they are in a position to have big days this weekend. Get you some Terps in your lineups.
Value:
- Payton Thorne, QB for Michigan State, is a name to keep an eye on tomorrow. Thorne came in for injured QB Lombardi and actually played decent vs. Ohio State. He completed 16/25 passes for 147 yards and rushed for 42 yards with a touchdown. He is listed as a dual-threat quarterback, which adds to his upside. If he does end up drawing the start this week, he is listed under 5K and makes a very strong value play. Penn State does not have the same type of talent on the defensive side that Ohio State had, making things a little easier for Thorne. Keep an eye on this situation tomorrow. Again, join our discord chat and stay up to date on all of the latest breaking news from the CFB world.
- Lawrence Toafili is expected to receive a heavier workload this weekend with Webb opting out. Jashaun Corbin will more than likely still draw the start, but Toafili is priced at $3,500 on DK. Value is hard to come by on this slate, so getting a RB who is expected to pickup 10+ carries vs. an extremely weak defense, that is value you need to take advantage of.
- Something to note on FD is the price difference in UGA compared to DK. UGA players are extremely underpriced on FD, especially JT Daniels who is priced at sub 8k. This UGA passing attack has looked really good with JT at QB. He should be priced higher than that on FD and is a strong play in all formats. Only knock on JT is that he does not offer any rushing upside, so hope for a big day through the air for this Bulldog offense.
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