Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
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QUARTERBACK :
High Tier: Lamar Jackson ($7100 – DK ) – One of the first things I do when starting out my research for the week is going into the projections I’m working off and filter the projection to 90th percentile outcome. As a GPP player, we are constantly searching for multiple 90th percentile outcomes. Of course, we bake a ton of other game theory and strategy into selecting our picks but this is a good starting point.
This week, Lamar Jackson is third in projected points when projected 90th percentile performances. The only two players above him are Deshaun Watson (very chalky this week + that line is awful) and Carson Wentz (see below). Jackson is projected to be the lowest owned of these three in a matchup against the Steelers. If people aren’t aware of the type of upside that Jackson has with his rushing ceiling + increased skill in the passs game – they are missing out on a fantastic opportunity. Since Jackson can reach his ceiling with his legs, you don’t need to pair him with 2 pass catchers in GPPs and it actually is one of the rarer cases where just one pass-catcher is likely the +EV move when rostering Lamar in GPPs. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are the only two players I’d stack with Jackon. (Boykin in a milli-maker type tournament).
Mid Tier: Kyler Murray ($6300 – DK ) – Kyler Murray is coming in as my favorite play of the week aka why I chose him for the cover of my article if you clicked on this link from Draftkings. In terms of QB ownership, Murray is going virtually un-owned this week while sitting under .5 point away from Jackson’s 90th percentile projection. Murray has a very large range of outcomes so don’t be disappointed if you roster him in this week and he doesn’t pay off. You need to be willing to take that risk in DFS and Kyler Murray seems to be one of the best cases of people not understanding a risk/reward proposition.
Murray can be paired similarly as Jackson where his rushing ability can allow Murray to hit his ceiling without multiple pass-catchers getting there. However, with the news that David Johnson will act as a WR2 this week in some cases, I am completely on board with the Murray-Johnson stack but will likely be very over-exposed to Murray-Johnson-Fitzgerald stacks which is something I usually don’t do in GPPs.
Low Tier: Carson Wentz ($6100 – DK ) – Wentz’s ownership projection is pretty ridiculous right now given the total in this game and his current projection. I’m figuring this is going to change but looking at this Thursday/Friday – we might be getting the Eagles QB very cheap and very under-owned. Wentz is the type of QB you pair with multiple pass-catchers and that is going to be the case this week.
Deep Sleeper: Jameis Winston
Running Backs:
High Tier: Alvin Kamara ($8,600 – DK ) – I’m not going to spend a ton of time here. You know what kind of upside Kamara brings to the table. The lack of work Latavius Murray has gotten so far this season tells us that Kamara is the clear lead back and should continue to see 70%+ rushing equity with basically all the goal-line work.
Add in a Christian McCaffery type level of MS targets (20-22% range) and we clearly want Kamara in our lineups to gain a bit of leverage off the higher owned and equally priced CMC.
Mid-Tier: Joe Mixon ($6,100 – DK ) – This is going to be a really interesting situation because Mixon is projected to be under 10% owned but is in one of the best game scripts on the board for a running back. We know the Cardinals are going to force this game to be played up in pace and Mixon is at home where the Bengals are 3 point favorites. At only 6.1k, this seems like a spot Mixon ends up as chalk on any other week. But with so many great options in the high-tier at RB this week he’s falling under the radar. One of the best ways to get over-exposed to Mixon this week is to play Fantasy Draft where you can play 4 running backs. I’ll have a lot of exposure to my bankroll on Fantasy Draft this week.
Low Tier: David Montgomery ($5,200 – DK )- This is a deeper GPP play but if you have been counting on the breakout from David Montgomery in your season-long leagues, if we don’t see it this week – I’m not sure when we will see it. Montgomery is obviously a major talent but there has been no running game going on for the Bears this year. If there ever has been a matchup that Montgomery could explode on, it will be against the Raiders this Sunday with the extremely positive game script this game holds for him. I’ve boosted Montgomery’s projection to where he’s receiving around 72% of his team’s rushing attempts which moves him into the top 5 RB values on the slate.
Deep Sleeper: James Conner
WIDE RECEIVER:
High Tier: Julio Jones ($7,700 – DK ) – We all know who Julio is and what he does so I’ll keep this short and sweet. Nobody is going to be playing Julio with Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins both projeting for more raw points. However, Julo’s ceiling is right up there with those two WR’s and will be coming in at half the ownership. This is a clear game theory pivot you can make if paying up for WR this week.
Mid Tier: Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000 – DK ) – Christian Kirk is out and father time really hasn’t caught up to Larry Fitz like it should have. This is a game where we may see 12+ targets for Fitzgerald and you know how much I love Kyler Murray this week so pairing him with his number one WR who is getting a projection this boost this week obviously makes a ton of sense.
People aren’t on this game as much as they should be in GPPs. Larry Fitz may come in a little popular but he’ll almost strictly be used by me in team stacks and game stacks which should create some natural leverage over the field.
Low-Tier: DJ Moore ($5,200 DK ) – People are down on DJ Moore because of his target number last week in the addition of not having Cam Newton as QB. Did you guys watch Cam’s last game he played? The guy is awful at throwing the football and Kyle Allen is a clear upgrade.
At 5.2k this may be the cheapest we get this WR all season. He is an immense talent and projects to come in at 1% owned this week. 1%. People are terrified of the matchup with the Jaguars but you have to think all the defensive attention is going to be funneled towards Christian McCaffery – a player I am going to be under-weight on this week. Not only am I taking a stand by coming in underweight on CMC but I am creating further leverage by playing the WR from Cam’s team. This is a fantastic spot and although you don’t want 100% DJ Moore in your lineups, having 10-15% exposure could really make a major difference if this game goes right.
Deep Sleeper: Phillip Dorsett
TIGHT END:
Evan Engram ($5,800 DK ) – I’m not really concerned about Saquon coming back this week so I’m boosting Engram’s projections a bit given the fact he is going to see a top 3 market share of targets this week at the TE position and has a very good chance to lead all TE’s in that category.
Obviously I’m not going to buy into the squeaky wheel narrative on the Vikings side of this game and try to project game-script off of this, but in a perfect world – we could see this Viking/Giants game as a sneaky shootout scenario. The Giants secondary and defense as a whole has been awful this season. With Jones at QB they are willing to play a lot more up-tempo compared to an Eli Manning ran offense. We don’t love the total on this game being in the 43-45 range, but I’m taking the over here. NOBODY is going to play Evan Engram at 5.8k this week and he has slate winning upside at 2% owned. Lock him in.
Deep Sleeper: Greg Olsen
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 
