Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
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Follow me on Twitter: @DF_Advantage for more TAKES. I put my money where my mouth is weekly and actually play real dollars on my plays.
QUARTERBACK :
High Tier: Jimmy Garroppolo ($6100 – DK ) – The total on this game is massive, a major indicator as a DFS player that we should have our eyes on the pieces from this team. When running 90th percentile projections, Jimmy G posts the second-best value on the entire slate, second to only the chalkiest QB on the slate in Ryan Tannehill.
Given that Jimmy G is only projected to come in at 5-7% owned, I am prioritizing him in 3-entry max builds this week, meaning 1/3 lineups of mine will have Jimmy G in them. He is a fantastic stack with George Kittle as well as Emmanuel Sanders.
Low Tier: Kyler Murray ($5700 – DK ) – The range of outcomes on Murray will always be extremely high making him a fantastic tournament play on the weeks he is NOT chalky. This week he is projected to come in at under 3% owned on Draftkings. That is absolutely unfathomable given the mess that is their RB situation and the concentrated target share between leading receivers Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald.
The stack comes together so easily by choosing either of the two pieces. I will only be pairing Murray up with one of Kirk or Larry Fitz in stacks this week as Murray’s ceiling is more attributed to what he can do running the football.
Deep Sleeper: Derek Carr
Running Backs:
High Tier: Saquon Barkley ($7,700 – DK ) – Saquon is the absolute nuts lock of the week for me. We haven’t really seen him break out for a massive game all season but behind a competent team he would be priced at CMC’s level right now. This sets up for the perfect spot to see Barkley pad the stat sheet with multiple touchdowns against the Dolphins. He’s going to be one of the more popular running backs on the slate for obvious reasons but I will have nearly 100% this week.
Low Tier: Patrick Laird ($4,500 – DK )- On the other side of the ball in this game I am high on Dolphins running back Patrick Laird who is projecting extremely well in terms of market share of rushes and targets for the Dolphins running backs. The Dolphins actually do have a respectable total in this game around 22 points and there really isn’t anyone else to score the ball on the ground for them. From a pure usage perspective, it’s hard to see Laird not getting there at 4.5k. Oh, did I mention he’s projecting for under 5% ownership?
Deep Sleeper: Bo Scarborough
WIDE RECEIVER:
High Tier: Tyreek Hill ($7,500 – DK ) – Weather here is going to keep everyone off of the Chiefs but I just absolutely love TyFreak this week. His price is down a bit and the single-digit ownership has me watering at the mouth. Similar to Kyler Murray, Hill’s range of outcomes is very large meaning you likely don’t want to be overexposed when he’s chalk, and vice versa when he is going overlooked. This is one of the weeks you want to be overexposed to Tyreek Hill as the Chiefs are still implied for nearly 28 points at home. Don’t let the weather scare you here, the Chiefs are scoring TDs through the air – their running backs are dust.
Low-Tier: Curtis Samuel ($4,400 DK ) – People have really forgotten about how good Curtis Samuel is and the lack of recent production has seen his price free fall down to now 4.4k on Draftkings. Playing in a game with an implied point total of 49 points, we’re seeing projected ownership of under 5% on the Panthers WR2. Samuel has the real-life upside to post that 25 DK point game we are looking for and the game-script should set up perfectly for the Panthers and Samuel here. I’m buying the dip.
Deep Sleeper: Larry Fitzgerald
TIGHT END:
Jacob Hollister ($3,800 DK ) – On the other side of the Panthers game you have the Seahawks with a massive 28 implied point total. While Chris Carson and even some of the WR’s are getting all the attention for Seattle, Hollister is projected to come in under 1% owned…. Although he doesn’t see massive aDOT targets, he’s gotten red-zone targets in 5 straight weeks. A TD is all we need for Hollister to hit value at this price.
Also – give a strong look at OJ Howard with Mike Evans done and the Bucs not playing for anything.
Deep Sleeper: OJ Howard
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 
