Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 13 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
Make sure to use the code “ENDZONE” for a discount and hop into the DFS Karma Discord ASAP.
Follow me on Twitter: @DF_Advantage for more TAKES. I put my money where my mouth is weekly and actually play real dollars on my plays.
QUARTERBACK :
High Tier: Kyler Murray ($6400 – DK ) – Murray has been on the injury report so there is some concern there driving down his ownership but to see it all the way down at 3% is astounding and something a GPP player needs to be accounting for.
Murray has one of the widest range of outcomes as a QB on the slate meaning that he is a very volatile player. Even with this volatility taken into account his standard deviation outcome puts him at the 5th best value on the slate. I’ll be monitoring the injury situation but this seems like a fantastic leverage play on a chalky week at QB.
Low Tier: Carson Wentz ($5800 – DK ) – I figured Wentz would be a lot more chalkier than he is projected to be but I guess I am wrong. At 5.8k, his implied team total + price should put him in the 15-20% ownership range. However, based off the projections I look at he will be sub-10%. This is another spot to gain leverage and be overexposed to Wentz.
Recency bias will have people off of him after a couple bad weeks but this matchup with the Dolphins could be a major get right spot for Wentz and company.
Deep Sleeper: Jacoby Brissett
Running Backs:
High Tier: Saquon Barkley ($7,400 – DK ) – I can’t believe we’re going to be getting Saquon at ownership levels under 10% at this price. People have truly forgotten who this guy is and what he is capable of on any given week, regardless of matchup. I am going to be very overexposed to the field this week where Saquon is projecting for 8% ownership. He has the capability to be the RB1 on the slate and actually projects as the third best value!! Try to fit him with CMC as much as you can.
Low Tier: Kenyan Drake ($5,600 – DK )- This is such an uncertain situation that we are going to see very low ownership on Drake. People don’t know what the status is on David Johnson – and are unlikely to pay 5.6k for Drake with that uncertainty in the air – which is why we’re seeing Drake’s ownership below 5%.
He gets around 13-15% market share of the targets – meaning he is fine to be paired up with Murray as he is a pass-catching back as to not negatively correlate with his QB.
Deep Sleeper: Joe Mixon
WIDE RECEIVER:
High Tier: Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,700 – DK ) – The price has come down once again and we get OBJ for the cheapest we have ever seen him in quite some time. The total in this game is low – keeping people off of the Browns as I’m seeing projected ownership on Odell under 5%.
When looking at his 90th percentile outcome we see that OBJ is a top 10 value on the slate (in addition to being a great value at his STD outcome with this price). I’m going to have a good chunk of OBJ spread across my lineups this Sunday.
Low-Tier: Alshon Jeffery ($5,100 DK ) – I really do believe that the Eagles are going to smash this week. Alshon should be the main catalyst if this does happen as Vegas is implying. Jeffery has seen over 20% of his team’s market share when he plays (outside of week 1), and 25% over the course of the season.
People are down on him because of the injury but he is back in action with a matchup against the Dolphins in the weeks second-highest implied team total. At just 5.1k on Draftkings he sets up to be a smash play and I will be VERY overexposed to his current 8% ownership projection (which I think will creep higher).
Deep Sleeper: Nelson Agholor
TIGHT END:
Noah Fant ($3,700 DK ) – I’m going to be going the route of paying down at TE this week as I am paying up big at RB and can’t play everyone. I will have Doyle exposure but will be pivoting to Fant as a leverage play where his 90th percentile outcome exceeds Doyle’s projection. This makes sense from a game theory aspect where Doyle is projecting around 20% in ownership yet Fant is only at 3%.
Fant is the second-best TE value on the slate that nobody will be playing.
Deep Sleeper: Dallas Goedert
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 
