Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 12 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
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QUARTERBACK :
High Tier: Russel Wilson ($6800 – DK ) – This game sets up for a sneaky shootout given the 48 O/U and nobody seems to be on either of the QB’s. I, however, am very interested in both of them. Russel Wilson is getting left behind on this slate with just 6% projected ownership yet projects as the highest raw point scorer on the slate behind Matt Ryan (uber chalk).
Wilson is on the road here and it is unlikely they will have much running the ball in the shootout type environment Vegas is leading us towards here. A spike in pass-attempts from Wilson in addition to a weak Eagles defense could lead to a potential slate breaking score as he attempts to win this season’s MVP.
Mid Tier: Baker Mayfield ($5900 – DK ) – Things seem to be clicking a bit more for the Browns of late and if they get the opportunity to shred apart this Dolphins defense to get the offense going, at home, they will. With all the distractions going on with Myles Garrett I could see the Browns coming out EXTREMELY strong in this game to make a statement. This narrative may hold even more weight knowing Baker’s character.
They’re going to want to throw the ball here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30+ points from the Browns this Sunday. Baker can easily be paired with his two underpriced, stud WR’s OBJ and Landry.
Low Tier: Carson Wentz ($5600 – DK ) – Wentz is actually the better PT/$ value compared to Russel Wilson but is projected for ownership under 3%. This is actually wild as Wentz is coming in as the second-best value on the slate but one of the lowest in terms of ownership. When it comes to game theory and leverage, this is a spot to POUNCE on. We don’t see opportunities like this often.
I am EXTREMELY high on all aspects of the Eagles offense this week including Miles Sanders. They are all too cheap with the potential amount of points they can put up in this spot.
Deep Sleeper: Mitch Trubisky
Running Backs:
High Tier: Saquon Barkley ($7,900 – DK ) – So, Saquon may not see a Christian McCaffery-esque workload but he is just as, if not more, talented of a running back. This dreadful Giants organization has done it’s best to keep Saquon down but the guy is not human.
Nobody in the industry is going to be clicking his name at this price, in this matchup, given his projected workload. Yet, he projects as a slightly better PT/$ value over Christian McCaffery who is going to see 4-5x the ownership.
I’ll take a 2% Saquon Barkley any day of the week, regardless of matchup.
Mid-Tier: Miles Sanders ($5,000 – DK ) – This is the clear cut lock of the week. Projected for only 15% ownership at the moment. Given his workload last week, if he gets that again he will break the slate.
This price is too good to pass up with how high I am on this Seahawks/Eagles game. People have recency bias from his “let-down” last week and he will be under-owned. This is just part of the psychology aspect in DFS. You NEED to be over-exposed to Miles Sanders this week if you’re looking to make +EV decisions in your contests weekly.
Low Tier: Kalen Ballage ($4,400 – DK )- Although I can’t be sure what his ceiling is here (probably not too high), the price makes this such a good play. He’s going to see single-digit ownership again while getting basically all the goal-line work and close to 70% of the rushes with 12-15% market share of the targets.
It’s a week I’m going to prioritize paying down at running back and I don’t mind taking Ballage given the price.
Deep Sleeper: Tarik Cohen
WIDE RECEIVER:
High Tier: Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,000 – DK ) – I am giving the Browns one last shot this season before I have to chalk them up. The momentum is building here and I mentioned in my game theory content piece, this is a statement game for the Browns. They have put together some wins, still technically are in the race for the playoffs, and will want to take the distraction off of the Myles Garrett situation which does not seem to be losing media attention any time soon.
Odell is underpriced in terms of talent/vegas and is projected for 8-12% ownership. Much too low given the upside we know he has but have not seen so far this season. If you’re going to accept the 10 game sample size we’ve gotten from OBJ this season as an indicator of his future production, I promise you you are going to miss out on some cash.
Mid Tier: DeVante Parker ($5,200 – DK ) – Parker has quietly been extremely consistent for the Dolphins posting double-digit fantasy points on DK in 7 straight weeks. Given my likings of the Browns passing attack this week I am going to want to bring it back with a pass-catcher from the other team in the case of a shootout (unlikely but this is a millionaire maker article).
Parker has slate breaking upside and I see a slate where if you don’t have him this week you will have no shot at breaking into the top .5% of GPPs. His 10% ownership projection warrants some consideration given some sharp minds in the industry are clicking his name. I want some exposure.
Low-Tier: Anthony Miller ($3,500 DK ) – Miller is a punt play this week that is someone I will likely only have in lineups I take a contrarian approach and pay-up big at running back (Kamara/Barkley/Bell for example). Otherwise, considering my Miles Sanders exposure he likely won’t be very necessary.
However, the guy is a talented receiver who is seeing his snap count and target share rise. A matchup with the Giants defense that is among the worst in the league could provide an opportunity for a breakout game from Anthony Miller.
Deep Sleeper: DK Metcalf
TIGHT END:
Noah Fant ($3,900 DK ) – Tigh end this week is an absolute wasteland if looking to make +EV plays. Ertz is the chalk and while I will have a ton, it wasn’t worth including him here.
Fant is a very talented tight-end with pass-catching and RAC ability. The former Iowa TE can be compared to George Kittle in terms of measurables and is starting to show some flashes down the stretch for the Broncos. If he had a capable QB he’d likely be the highest owned TE on the slate. I’m going to be over-exposed compared to the 10% ownership of the field.
Deep Sleeper: Mike Gesicki
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter 
