Bobby’s NFL GPP Breakdown – Millionaire Maker Plays Week 10
Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 10 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Drew Brees ($6300 – DK / $8400 – FD) – I was surprised to see Brees’ projected ownership this week fall below some guys like Rodgers, Goff, and Rivers in a game where the Saints are projected 30 points and the Bengals giving up six games on the season of 300-yard passing games to opposing quarterbacks. Obviously, we are slightly concerned of red-zone carries and big plays on the ground from Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram but from my read on this game, Brees is close to a lock for the 300-yard bonus on Draftkings. Drew Brees has been as elite as they come this season ranking number one overall, surprisingly higher than Patrick Mahomes, according to ProFootballFocus with a grade of 94.2. Brees has ranked first overall in accuracy percentage at 67.4% and given a clean pocket grade of 95.1. It is also notable that Brees has limited turnovers with extreme efficiency ranked 3rd in the league in lowest turnover-worthy play percentage at 1.43% per ProFootballFocus.com.
Brees has been showing his efficiency all over the field with ELITE passer-rating’s all over the field. Out of the backfield, with Alvin Kamara as your receiver, you can expect big things. In addition, as you can see in the graphic below, Brees has been extremely efficient along the sidelines more than 10-yards downfield which is huge for big-plays as that’s where those broken streak plays usually come. With the addition of Dez Bryant, who I figure is going to line up as a TE for some plays, will be able to improve that center of the field rating going forward. This is going to be a fun day for those who pay up for Drew Brees in a game that should stay fairly competitive with the Bengals.
Mid Tier: Andrew Luck ($5500 – DK / $7800 – FD) – Obviously, it’s tough to pay up at quarterback without your player having some ownership so the fact Drew Brees is listed as my #1 QB should be noted that I’m factoring in comparative ownership in his price range. On Fanduel, from a raw points perspective, I think it’s extremely possible that Andrew Luck outscores Drew Brees as there is a possibility that the Saints jump out early and Kamara/Ingram vulture any touchdown opportunities.
That shouldn’t be the case for Andrew Luck and the Colts who have shown one of the weakest rushing offenses in the NFL outside of Marlon Mack’s one big game. With Mack questionable for this week, I’m not confident that the Colts lean on him as heavily as they might like to against the 7th ranked DVOA pass defense in the NFL. However, the volume is certainly going to be there between two teams that rank top 5 in pace of play this season (notably the Colts 1st overall).
The concerns on Andrew Luck’s health are now gone as he is averaging an aDOT of over 8 yards in his past five games. The Colts have obviously looked into analytics and are abandoning the run a bit more this season with head coach Frank Reich calling only 38.2% of run plays on first down (30th in NFL), 21.4% run plays in the 4th quarter (31st in the NFL), and 33.3% of run plays in the red zone (26th in the NFL). Like I mentioned with Drew Brees, the red-zone rush attempt vultures, I don’t see that being a concern with the Colts and Andrew Luck. A 47-point over/under for this game is major and I think we see a bit of a shootout between the Jaguars and Colts.
Low Tier: Marcus Mariota ($4700 – DK / 6700 – FD) – It’s pretty crazy how Mariota is priced down a ton on Draftkings this week. The guy is a mobile quarterback in a positive game script where the Titans will almost surely be trailing. Also keep in mind the type of scheme the Patriots run on the defensive end where although they have limited passing yards this season, that is bound to turn-around as they run a bend but don’t break scheme and have ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass. The offensive line for Mariota looks even better this year where they only allow 4.8% pressures on Mariota who in turn has turned in a completion percentage 5.7% higher than last year which is extremely significant. Obviously, his aDOT dropped down below 8 yards after holding above 9 yards the first three years of his career is slightly concerning on what kind of ceiling Mariota has but we’re not expecting 30 points. At 4.7k Mariota just needs to do what any mobile quarterback will get the opportunity to do in this game script against the Patriots to hit value. If he looks half as good as he has the past two weeks (73.5 completion percentage) he’s going to CRUSH where he should be throwing the ball 35+ times.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Drew Brees
High: James White ($7,300 – DK / $7,800 – FD) – The new key to being an elite running-back in 2018 NFL is to actually be a receiver! That’s exactly what James White brings to the offense for the Patriots. With the increase in price and White being on the main slate he is 100% going to go unowned. White has seen target counts of 10/14/7/10/13/7 over his past six games which is that of a WR1/2 receiver! In this role, White has ranked 6th in yards per route run and number one overall in first down receptions (per ProFootballFocus.com). White also ranks first in the league in targets on 1st, 3rd, and 4th down, in the red zone, and against the blitz. How insane is that?! In addition to being a target monster for one of the NFL’s top offenses, he has a catch rate of over 77% which can be seen in his route tree from last week below where he caught six of seven targets.
Although the Patriots expect Michel back this week we can also throw a few rush attempts for White in this game as well with an expected expanded role if Michel ultimately misses.
Mid-Tier: Leonard Fournette ($6,300 – DK / $7,000 – FD) – Fournette is #back this week and the big question on the table is “How healthy is he?”, a question that will be answered this week against the Colts. As I mentioned when discussing Andrew Luck’s opportunity this week, this game is going to be played at an incredibly high pace of play with both teams ranked in the top five. If Fournette is back this could be a massive spot for him against a Colts defensive line that is in the bottom 3 teams in the NFL in 15+ yards at over 8%. Fournette was practicing early this week and I truly believe his is 100% healthy. He’s extremely discounted on both sites for the type of upside he possesses if he gets his normal workload with the Jaguars which is something we can expect after Bortles’ major struggles recently.
Low Tier: LeSean McCoy ($4,500 – DK / $5,600 FD)- LeSean McCoy is definitely one of my hotter takes this week after he has been ridiculed across the league for amounting 24 yards on his last 24 carries. This is going to be one of the few games on the year where the Bills actually hold a lead and you better believe they are going to lead on their feature back to keep that lead rather risking it with Nathan Peterman under center. While I had some concerns about Chris Ivory’s great play of late and his 60/40 timeshare with McCoy, fears of that happening have subsided as Ivory dislocated his shoulder last week in the Bills loss and hasn’t participated in a contact practice since. There is a chance he suits up for the game but I can’t see the Bills leaning on him much.
McCoy also provides a ceiling in the receiving game where he has seen five or more targets in all but three games this season. With an increased number of touches on the ground due to the game script + Ivory injury in addition to his involvement in the passing game, I am very confident of McCoy cruising to value this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): LeSean McCoy
High Tier: Julio Jones ($8,100 – DK / $8,700 FD) – Obviously we’re not going to pay up for a top-tier WR with that minimal of ownership but arguably the best WR in the NFL seems to be falling under the radar again this week due to a difficult matchup with Denzel Ward. Although Ward has been good this year, this is Julio Jones we’re talking about and I never weigh WR/CB matchups too much anyway. The volume is going to be there again for Julio this week and with the graphic included in my article from last week the positive TD regression is coming. Julio would have been the high-tier WR of the slate had it not been for a broken Michael Thomas touchdown that was mostly luck.
The touchdowns are going to continue coming Julio’s way and I want to continue to get exposure to a guy with an aDOT near 14 yards and the player who is leading the rest of the NFL in air yards by 100! It’s absolutely crazy he’s not going to be 25%+ owned this week. #LOCK
Mid Tier/Low Tier: TY Hilton ($5,700 – DK / $7,000 – FD) – In addition to my LeSean McCoy take this week, TY Hilton comes in as a #hottake against one of the league’s best defense. The first thing to become aware of if you weren’t already is Hilton’s insane home/road splits on his career which is attributable to the turf in Indianapolis which help with Hilton’s speed. Hilton is priced historically low to the point where we’re surprised Jacoby Brissett isn’t at QB this week. In my opinion, we have seen the dip in production from TY due to his soft tissue injury where didn’t miss any time but instead saw about 1/2 the snaps he had been seeing the first three weeks of the season and therefore around half the targets. I think TY bounces back in a big way this week coming off a bye and sees the 75-85% snap share he had been in addition to a bounce back in his targets.
Through the first three weeks of the season when Hilton was fully healthy he had over double the number of air yards compared to the next highest for WR on the Colts, a 24% target share, and the highest aDOT on the team. His 50% catch rate through these first three games limited his ceiling, leading to a decrease in his price over the season as he really hasn’t had a huge game yet this season. That game is coming and I love the odds it comes against Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars where Vegas is telling us something (a lot of points are going to be scored!).
Mid-Tier/Low-Tier: Kenny Golladay ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD) – People have seemingly done away with Kenny Golladay compared to Week 3 where they were calling him WR1 for the Lions. Golladay has posted a 119.4 passer rating when targeted this season which is good for 19th in the NFL (#1 on the Lions) so that talk of WR1 isn’t too far off from an immediate future. Golladay ranks 29th in total air yards by WR this season ahead of some guys like Tyler Boyd and Keenan Allen who are projected to be much chalkier this week at a much higher price point. Golladay has also crushed these guys in the aDOT department posting an aDOT over 12 yards (while Allen/Boyd are under 9), which puts him up there with the likes of Hopkins, Brown, and OBJ. Usually, this increase in depth of target leads to a decrease catch efficiency (RACR) but that hasn’t been the case for Golladay who’s RACR is actually HIGHER than Hopkins, Brown, and OBJ. By no means, I’m saying he’s better than these guys but what I am saying is that we’re going to start hearing about him in the conversation in the near future as more targets start to come his way as a result of the departure of Golden Tate.
The Bears have been a great defense this year but are getting TORCHED by those vertical threat receivers with high aDOT’s as we see in the graphic about where receiver RACR spikes considerably around the 17 yard mark. It starts the increase above the league average right where Golladay’s aDOT is. I expect the Lions to get him involved early and often this week against a defense that is susceptible to his exact play style.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Kenny Golladay
Austin Hooper ($3,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – The Matt Ryan-Julio-Hooper stack this week will be a popular build among my rosters and although I haven’t included Ryan in my QB discussion he is one of my top contrarian QB’s on the week. Hooper is one of those tight-end’s who’s targets spike on random weeks as he’s seen as many as 12 some weeks and as low as 2 on others. With this a potentially difficult matchup for the rest of the team (Coleman vs tough DL/ Julio vs Ward) I think Hooper could be leaned on from a game theory perspective against the Browns who have been below average against tight ends this season. Obviously, I don’t think this is a spot we should expect 12 targets or Hooper would be 90% owned this Sunday but I think there is a potential we see one of those “spiked” weeks for Hooper in terms of targets. At only 3.8k on Draftkings this week he is an absolute steal.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
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