Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 8 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 8

QBs RBs WRs Stacks
D. Watson
C. Carson D. Hopkins Texans
R. Wilson A. Kamara M. Thomas Falcons
M. Stafford L. Fournette TY Hilton Lions
M. Ryan T. Johnson K. Stills Raiders
T. Brady J. White A. Robinson Colts

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
  • Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
    • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
  • With that being said…. my “ELITE” stack of the week is Watson-Hopkins-Stills.  This stack includes some of the more chalkier options on the slate but the collective ownership of these three guys is 1/3 of 1%.  So, depending on what contest you are playing – my ‘best stack’ of the slate is going to be a third of a percent owned.  Once you mix in the other plays around this stack (Waller/Jones bring back?), you really don’t need to worry about ownership levels.  This is my “main GPP” stack which brings a ton of upside.
  • Is Christian McCaffery going to be mega-chalk?  Although he is bound to produce at a high level, McCaffery is ranking out as the 7th highest value at the position.  By no means is that bad, but if McCaffery is going to be 30-35% owned, I think a fade is warranted given the very tough matchup, cross-country on the road.
    • Keep an eye on ownership projections and what you here around the industry as Sunday approaches.
  • It’s truly comical that Sony Michel is projecting for under 10% while Chris Carson is projecting for 35%.  Michel is coming in 1.8k cheaper on Draftkings and is only projected for 2-3 less points than Carson.  The total is going to drive up the ownership here but don’t be surprised to see Penny/Prosise vulture some work from Carson this week where I think the Seahawks will make an effort to target the RB more.
    • Carson is a fantastic play – I just love the pivot to Michel in tournaments.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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