Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 15

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and stacks for this week’s NFL main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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QBs	RBs	WRs	Stacks
J. Garopollo	C. Carson	D. Hopkins	Texans
R. Tannehill	C. McCaffery	C. Godwin	Buccaneers
K. Murray	P. Laird	J. Landry	49ers
D. Watson	S. Barkley	D. Westbrook	Cardinals
P. Mahomes	T. Gurley	C. Kirk	Chiefs

 

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
• Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
  • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
• If you are on twitter, you’re most likely aware of our “Laird”.  While Patrick Laird of the Dolphins has become the meme of DFS twitter, he is actually projecting extremely well this week in terms of value at RB.
• This is clearly a three running back week where there are so many great options to choose from.  While you may take the approach of being contrarian by using a WR/TE at the flex this week, I don’t really see a point in doing that… even in larger field GPPs.
• Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  I’m going to keep some low ownership in here this week.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.  It’ll be key to get some value stacks in given that I find it to be a priority to get CMC into your lineups.
  • Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins-Will Fuller/Corey Davis
    • This stack can be run without Fuller, however the fact that he’s coming back from an injury – his ownership is going to be lower than it would be.  If he’s playing this week, he’ll be close enough to 100% to break the slate.  I can’t pass on that upside.
  • Jameis Winston-Chris Godwin-OJ Howard/Danny Amendola
  • Jimmy G-Emmanuel Sanders-George Kittle/Julio Jones
    • • This game stack could break the slate and is my clear #1 route to take in single entry GPPs.  The projected ownership on these players is WAYYY too low given my outlook on the game.
  • Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill-Sammy Watkins/Courtland Sutton
    • • Weather issues will keep ownership down on the highest upside team of the week.  Take a risk playing this game at suppressed ownership.
  • Kyler Murray-Christian Kirk- Larry Fitzgerald/Jarvis Landry

 

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• Twitter: @DF_Advantage