Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 14

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and stacks for this week’s NFL main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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QBs	RBs	WRs	Stacks
D. Watson	C. McCaffery	D. Hopkins	Texans
R. Tannehill	A. Kamara	J. Edelman	Buccaneers
J. Winston	K. Drake	O. Beckham	Titans
S. Darnold	L. Fournette	K. Stills	Jets
K. Murray	L. McCoy	C. Kirk	Cardinals

 

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
• Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
  • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
• Running back ownership is thankfully going to be spread out this week as there are less clear chalk plays with a lot of the top RBs projecting similarly in terms of PT/$.  Christian McCaffery remains the top projected back on the slate and is a top-3 value projected for over 25 DK points.  His price will always warrant the fade however and it isn’t encouraging with the Panthers line movement after the firing of their head coach.  My top running back option on this slate is going to be Alvin Kamara who projects as the top value back on the slate yet ranks 6th in projected ownership among running backs.  Looking for clear leverage spots like this, especially at the RB position where we don’t get them that often is VERY important to take advantage of as a DFS player.
• Although I usually don’t dart throw often at RB as volume usually trumps all, Kenyan Drake makes for a very intriguing GPP play this week as we look to take advantage of the uncertainty in David Johnson’s health and the Cardinals approach to splitting the workload going forward.  Drake could easily see 70% of the carries + 70%+ of the RB targets this week in which he would easily be a top value at RB.
• Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  I’m going to keep some low ownership in here this week.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.  It’ll be key to get some value stacks in given that I find it to be a priority to get CMC into your lineups.
  • Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins-Kenny Stills/Courtland Sutton
    • This is my top stack of the slate by far.  Although in every situation I will not have Sutton and may have some Watson-Stills single pairings, I think this stack will smash.  If not comfortable with the full stack, Watson’s rushing ability makes it +EV to only pair him with a single receiver. Stills is going to go off this week and send me to Week 15 of the Best Ball Championship.
  • Jameis Winston-Mike Evans-OJ Howard/Jack Doyle
    • Hilton is out once again making Doyle a great bring back value.  If looking for more upside switch Doyle to Pascal.  OJ Howard getting back involved in the offense is too little too late for my season-long teams but hopefully, he’ll win me back that equity in DFS this week.
  • Ryan Tannehill-AJ Brown-Corey Davis/Tyrell Williams
    • • Such a cheap stack with mega-upside judging off how Vegas is scoring this game.  Tannehill’s aDOT is top 3 in league in weeks 10-13.
  • Sam Darnold-Jaminson Crowder-Demaryius Thomas/Allen Hurns
    • • Another super cheap stack in a potential shootout.
  • Kyler Murray-Christian Kirk- Kenyan Drake/ DiontaeJohnson
    • The range of outcomes here is too wide to not get exposure to a 1% owned game stack.

 

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• Twitter: @DF_Advantage