Bobby’s NFL Game Theory – Week 12

QBs	RBs	WRs	Stacks
M. Ryan	M. Sanders	C. Ridley	Falcons
R. Wilson	A. Kamara	J. Jones	Browns
C. Wentz	B. Hill	O. Beckham	Patriots
J. Winston	L. Bell	T. Lockett	Bears
B. Mayfield	S. Barkley	A. Miller	Eagles

 

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
• Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
  • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
• Running back is an interesting spot in terms of game theory this week.  The top two projected RB values of the slate are
  • Miles Sanders
  • Brian Hill
• Both of these running backs burned the field last week and are almost guaranteed to see lower ownership as a result.  However, the touch count for both players was there and that’s really all we are concerned about when evaluating last weeks performance to predict this weeks result.  DO NOT have any recency bias based off how these two players peformed last week.  They are ELITE plays this week and need to be in your lineups.  If looking for my preference between the two, I’m taking Miles Sanders 10/10.  Some PSU homerism there but Sanders is projected as the MUCH better value and he’s clearly the better player.  I wouldn’t be opposed to 90% Miles Sanders in GPPs this week.  That is how high on him I am.
• I think Christian McCaffery is a fade this week and someone I’ll want to be way underexposed to compared to the field.  There is no way he’s getting to the 30 DK point mark he needs with a 19 implied point total for the Panthers on the road.
• This is a week I’m paying down at RB big time.
• Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  I’m going to keep some low ownership in here this week.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.
  • Matt Ryan-Julio Jones-Calvin Ridley/Mike Evans
    • This will be the optimal GPP stack of the week.  It will be popular but you’d be surprised at how low the total ownership combination of these four players is in GPPs.  Don’t be afraid to roll it out there with the high likelihood of a shootout.
  • Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham Jr.-Jarvis Landry/DeVante Parker
    • No way the Browns let me down again, right?
  • Tom Brady – Julian Edelman – N’Keal Harry/Amari Cooper
    • With the bring back of Cooper this stack will be .2% owned
  • Carson Wentz – Miles Sanders – Nelson Agholor/Tyler Lockett
    • My favorite leverage GPP stack of the week.
  • Mitch Trubisky-Allen Robinson- Anthony Miller/ Saquon Barkley

 

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