Bobby’s NFL Game Theory for Draftkings – Week 16

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and stacks for this week’s NFL main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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QBs	RBs	WRs	Stacks
L. Jackson	M. Gordon	M. Thomas	Colts
R. Wilson	L. Fournette	J. Jones	Falcons
K. Murray	P. Laird	C. Samuel	Seahawks
J. Brissett	A. Ekeler	TY Hilton	Bengals
D. Prescott	D. Washington	C. Kirk	Cardinals

 

If reading my content make sure to follow me on Twitter – @DF_Advantage

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above. It is highly advised to play 5 guys in your stacks for DraftKings & 4 for FanDuel. Using this method, try entering 2-3 stacks in 3 max entry tournaments on DraftKings & FanDuel nightly. Make the stacks first, then worry about filling out the rest of your lineup with Core Plays.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• We know how important stacking is in DFS.  It is very under-utilized in NFL so it is important to focus on stacking and maximizing correlation when creating your DFS lineups.
• Going off what I said above…. the fact of the matter is: IF YOU ARE NOT STACKING/CORRELATING YOUR LINEUPS IN NFL DFS YOU ARE GOING TO BE A LONG TERM LOSER.
  • Those are just the facts speaking from what the data tells us so don’t get offended.
• Can you all believe it’s already Week 16?  This is one of the last two, if not THE, last viable slate of the NFL season so let’s make it a great one.  This is shaping up to be a great week as well with a lot of news to monitor and some fantastic stacking options on the board.  This is a week I’m going to be building a lot of different lineups with a lot of different stack variations as I think the range of outcomes on this slate is so large.
• One leverage play I find myself on a ton in GPPs is Austin Ekeler > Melvin Gordon.  Gordon is a fantastic play and projects to be a great value but…. so is Austin Ekeler.  While Melvin Gordon will be the most popular running back on the slate, we’re getting Ekeler at single-digit ownership.  For reference on how good Ekeler is and why I believe he can easily outscore Gordon on less touches in this game:
  • Ekeler is PFF’s 4th highest-graded running back.
  • Leading all RB in the NFL in yards after the catch.
  • Leads all RB in yards per touch.
  • Only has one drop on 91 targets this season.
• A huge running back situation to keep an eye on is the injury status of Josh Jacobs.  If Jacobs sits, DeAndre Washington who is currently priced on Draftkings at $4,000 becomes a top-10 running back play on the slate and someone you’ll want exposure to.
• Injury news will be huge going into the week so be sure to stay up to date in our discord to get the latest analysis on lineup construction and game theory.  Michael Thomas and Julio Jones’s ownership will sky-rocket if RB value keeps opening up.
• Now to talk about my CORE 5 STACKS.  I’m going to keep some low ownership in here this week.  These stacks will take into account ownership projections/actual projections/game theory/upside/etc.  If playing a 5-max contest this week – you could easily build around these stacks knowing that your lineups are already +EV.  It’ll be key to get some value stacks in given that I find it to be a priority to get CMC into your lineups.
  • Russell Wilson-Tyler Lockett-DK Metcalf/Christian Kirk
    • This is the “chalk” stack of the week but given the total in this game and the continued lack of stacking in large field NFL GPP contests, this is still an extremely viable stack that I will have exposure to this week.
  • Kyler Murray-Christian Kirk-Larry Fitzgerald/DK Metcalf
    • Get exposure to this game in a variety of ways.  Like I said above, there are a ton of ways to stack this week up.  This game has a ton of different variations to it and I want to capture as much of that as I can.
  • Jacoby Brissett-TY Hilton-Jack Doyle/Curtis Samuel
  • Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper-Randall Cobb/Miles Sanders
    • The shoulder injury will keep this stack way under the radar.  If the Cowboys are just playing it safe with Dak as he preps for the biggest game of the season I wouldn’t be surprised.  The report already is he’ll be “good to go” so I have zero concerns.  This could be a smash spot against the Eagles secondary.
  • Andy Dalton-John Ross-Alex Erickson/Patrick Laird
    • Extremely cheap stack that lets you play basically anyone else you want.  The total in this game is 46.5….. points will be scored.

 

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

• Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and we are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.