Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 10 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
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QUARTERBACK :
High Tier: Aaron Rodgers ($6600 – DK ) – My thoughts have stayed aligned all week into the weekend so that is always a good sign. Rodgers is one of the guys going completely over-looked on this slate. I don’t feel very confident pairing him with more than one pass catcher from this team as it is a toss-up for production after Davante Adams, but the Rodgers-Adams stack is elite this week, particularly on Fanduel where the TD equity holds more weight.
Mid Tier: Daniel Jones ($5700 – DK ) – The Giants Jets game could end up turning into a shootout and nobody is playing it because the game total is below that 45 thresholds. However, the Giants are implied for 23.5 points which is equivalent to the Cardinals projection and Kyler Murray is projecting as one of the chalkiest QBs on the slate. Hmmmmm. That doesn’t add up to me and I’ll make sure to be over-exposed to Daniel Jones this week compared to the field in these large-field tournaments. Kyler Murray chalk just doesn’t feel smart to me.
Low Tier: Ryan Tannehill ($5100 – DK ) – This is going to be a very low owned play but with the game flow and pace the Chiefs are going to set for this game you have to think that the Titans give the ball to Tannehill and let him do his thing. He’s a capable QB and given the fact that he is this cheap it doesn’t take a lot for him to hit value. AJ Brown is quietly one of the best GPP plays on the board and the Tannehill-Brown combo leaves you a ton of flexibility when filling out the rest of your roster.
Deep Sleeper: Baker Mayfield
Running Backs:
High Tier: LeVeon Bell ($6,900 – DK ) – I’m going to be overweight on a lot of other running backs but listing the obvious plays this week (CMC/Kamara/Barkley/etc) doesn’t really provide a ton of value to a millionaire-maker article. With that being said, running back is the one position where you don’t NEED to get too #weird. LeVeon Bell is going to be in a lot of my Daniel Jones lineups as I look to take advantage of a game that could shoot out at low ownership.
Mid-Tier: Jaylen Samuels ($6,300 – DK ) – I’m not worried about anyone taking work from Samuels this week as he should be the true workhorse. The total isn’t encouraging but a running back at home who’s going to see a lot of volume is someone you want to consider in tournaments.
Low Tier: David Johnson ($5,700 – DK )- This play is looking a bit better considering the health status of Johnson is trending in the right direction. I am not super high on Murray this week which is why I’m loading up on David Johnson. At this price, if he ends up getting 80%+ of the backfield touches (which is a possibility), he could break the slate.
Deep Sleeper: Tarik Cohen
WIDE RECEIVER:
High Tier: Michael Thomas ($8,300 – DK ) – This is a cash play but also the lock of the slate for me. I’m going to have so much Michael Thomas it is disgusting and likely -EV. But that’s how high I am on Thomas this week. The total is now up to 32.75 and climbing. I’d be very surprised to see Michael Thomas score under 20 DK points this week. VERY SURPRISED. I don’t even think it’s possible barring injury.
Mid Tier: Sammy Watkins ($5,100 – DK ) – The Chiefs get Patrick Mahomes back this week and people seem to be forgetting the upside Sammy Watkins has. Even with Tyreek Hill back, there is more than enough production to go around. All the attention will be on TyFreak from the defense leaving a window for Watkins to blow up at single-digit ownership.
Low-Tier: Auden Tate ($4,000 DK ) – This is the milli-maker play that if you put into 5% of your lineups you will be significantly overexposed compared to the field. Tate is actually not bad but nobody will play him because (1) he’s on the Bengals (2) nobody knows his name. While I do think Tyler Boyd is the more optimal play here – that is the only player the defense will be concerned about scheming out of the game. At 4k and a projection of 23% target share, he’s a good GPP play this week.
Deep Sleeper: Golden Tate
TIGHT END:
Mike Gesicki ($3,100 DK ) – With Preston Williams down with the ACL tear this is Mike Gesicki’s breakout. I’ve been waiting on this since last season and if there was any time for Gesicki to get his while on the Dolphins – it’s now. They will have 0 running game and it will be on Fitzpatrick to sling it all game long. Gesicki is obviously a viable target of him with the volume he saw last week and I think we get more of the same. At 3.1k it’s impossible not to have a TON of Gesicki this week. Yet he’s projected for single-digit ownership.
Deep Sleeper: OJ Howard
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter