Welcome into year three of the Dream Draft series. Each August, I will highlight “my guys” for the upcoming season and break down exactly how I’m building my season long fantasy rosters. I play in anywhere between 8-12 money leagues as well as two “home leagues” each season. I’ve used this article each of the last two years to win over 55% of leagues entered. This article will highlight exactly how I’m constructing my home and standard league teams this season. It’s important to note that this article is NOT designed for best ball leagues. Best ball has completely taken over the fantasy football landscape, but there are different strategies and roster construction needed for re-draft vs best ball. Knowing the scoring of your league is one of the most important factors to success. I believe this to be the optimal strategy for re-draft leagues in 2024. With that being said, let’s dive in…
General Strategy
Season long fantasy football strategy changes not only yearly, but by each league as well. Being able to adapt to how your league-mates are drafting is a huge advantage — as well as being able to properly analyze ADP. I think there are paths to strong zero RB builds this season, so I won’t completely cross that off my list and will pivot to that strategy when needed. That being said, I’m willing to skew more towards early RB in my home leagues, and will likely look to go Hero RB on the majority of my rosters. If you aren’t familiar with the term, Hero RB would mean selecting one elite RB within the first round or two and then waiting until the middle rounds to further address the position. I have a very clear top four at the RB position this season — Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall and Saquon Barkley in that order. The first three are probably in a tier of their own, while I’m higher than consensus on Barkley during his first season in Philadelphia. Grabbing one of these four will be a big emphasis for me this season, but if that isn’t possible I will five into my round-by-round targets for every scenario.
Round 1
I won’t really dive into CMC much here. If you have the first pick, take him. If you have pick two or three and he’s there, take him. I am a bit concerned about the calf injury, but he’s going to have a full 6 weeks of rest on deck. Even if he misses a few games, we can make up for it in softer home leagues with the rest of our draft. If you pick second, I would probably just lean towards CeeDee Lamb. After the first two picks is when things open up…
- Bijan Robinson
- Breece Hall
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
Assuming you can’t get CMC/Lamb these are going to be the main first round targets for me. If you pick at the back-end of Round 1 in a 12 team league you may not even be able to get any of these three — I’ll touch on that in a minute.
If you remember last year’s article, I was adamant that you shouldn’t spend a top-five pick on Bijan Robinson. That ultimately worked out with him finishing as just the RB16 in PPR PPG. This year couldn’t be more different. Arthur Smith is gone, the Falcons have vastly upgraded the QB room and there is definitely RB1 overall potential in Robinson’s range of outcomes. I would take him as high as two or three in drafts — and then focus on WR.
Hall vs St. Brown is open for debate. Both are coming off monster seasons, and primed to do so again with their roles in their offenses. One of my biggest hits last year was being aggressive in drafting St. Brown which led to multiple fantasy championships as he finished 6th in PPR PPG among skill position players. As I noted, I want one of those three guys on my team so drafting Hall or St. Brown if both available at your pick will come down to personal preference. In some soft leagues, you may be able to pair St. Brown with Barkley. If not, I would probably lean RB in R2 or wait for Rachaad White should you select him with your first round pick. If you side with Hall, you can implement the same strategy as Bijan and comfortably hammer WR after.
If you don’t have access to our first plan of attack with Robinson/Hall/ARSB. There are two more players I would target in the back-half of the first round. The first being Saquon Barkley, who I highlighted as my RB4 this season. The second being Garrett Wilson.
Barkley has been as consistent as the come when healthy in his career, and for the first time will finally be on a good offense with one of the best offensive lines in football. Jalen Hurts will likely steal some touchdowns, but that doesn’t eliminate the expected rise in efficiency due to him finally being on a functional offense. Philly has one of the highest win totals in the NFL this season, and Barkley will have a chance to play from ahead late in games for the first time in his career. D’Andre Swift ranked 14th overall in touches last year and averaged just under 17 per game. I think that’s the floor for Barkley, who they just paid a premium for in FA. There is also some small potential upside for decreased tush push with Jason Kelce departing to retirement.
As for Wilson, the case builds itself. He’s topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons with as bad of QB play as you can have. There’s no reason why he can’t put up a Davante Adams-like season with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and I would rank him ahead of AJ Brown personally for this season.
Round 2
The second and third round are the absolute hardest in drafts this season in my opinion. We have several high-upside options but none that are absolute smashes at ADP in my opinion. Hitting on your Round 2/3 picks will go a long way to finishing high in your league this season more than ever. Assuming you’ve nabbed one of my 1st round targets, here are the guys I’m comfortable clicking in Round 2. Also note: ADP varies by league – if either of Barkley or Wilson (or AJB) slip to R2 in your draft I would take them regardless of who you selected in R1.
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- De’Von Achane
- Drake London
- Davante Adams
With how hard this round is to decipher, I would ultimately just grab your guy you feel the best about here. Whether or not I take a RB in Round 1, I want to be aggressive in trying to get Drake London in Round 2. London is getting a massive offensive upgrade this year with both the play-caller and QB. He’s been very good on a per snap and per route basis in his career, and there’s room for a huge spike this season with the team set to throw the ball more.
De’Von Achane seems to be one of the most polarizing picks in fantasy football. He was THE most efficient running back in football last season averaging over 1.5 PPR points per touch. The problem for him, was that he averaged just under 13 touches per game. I don’t usually want to speculate this much with my second round pick, but few players in the NFL have the fantasy ceiling that Achane possesses. Tied to an elite offense and schemer in Mike McDaniel. If Achane can reach 16+ touches per game, he has top three RB upside, but if he remains at 12-13 he probably isn’t worth the ADP here. I’m more inclined to take risks in my standard and home league drafts because I feel I can win both with the depth of my draft and grinding on the waiver wire. Achane is firmly in play for me in Round 2 and I’m willing to take a stand and rank him as my RB5 or 6 behind only the big 4.
Gibbs has the same concerns as Achane, elite offense and scheme but workload and touch count concerns. He’s in play for me as well and he and Achane are the next two up after my big 4. I would take them both over the likes of Kyren Williams and Jonathan Taylor.
8/15 UPDATE: I already had Achane above Gibbs, but that is more firm now with the hamstring injury for Gibbs. I do think it’s accurate he will play in Week 1 – but I’m concerned that he already hurt this hamstring earlier and was just cleared on July 27th only to re-injure it again already. I am pushing Gibbs down to a third round tier for me.
Round 3
As I noted above, the 2nd and 3rd Rounds are by far the hardest in my opinion, so I’m completely fine just targeting a guy I don’t want to leave my draft without.
- Malik Nabers
I’ve had Malik Nabers this high on my board since Draft Day, so it’s a little unfortunate that the steam on him is getting out of control. He dominates every practice, and I think people are underestimating the Giants offense a bit. Sure, Daniel Jones isn’t an ideal starting QB and I’ve been critical of Brian Daboll — that being said this team is one year removed from winning a playoff game with Jones at QB. They ranked 16th in offensive DVOA that year, and I think that is closer to what we will get from them as opposed to the 3rd worst mark we saw from them in 2023. Nabers is a Odell Beckham/Ja’Marr Chase hybrid best comped to Chase per PlayerProfiler. If we read the tea leaves of their offensive moves, this offense is going to revolve around him entirely. Saquon Barkley out, multiple offensive lineman in, this team is going to throw the ball and Nabers is going to be a target vacuum. I’ve already tweeted about and bet him for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I will not leave a draft without him in 2024 — even if I have to reach.
8/12 UPDATE: I am currently still fine with this stance on Nabers in light of his injury at practice over the weekend. It seems minor and I’m not making any adjustments as of now.
Round 4
Assuming we have locked in one of the top running backs, I will once again target WR in this round. If things didn’t break your way in the RB room — prioritize getting Rachaad White as your RB1 (which may need to be done in R3).
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- Cooper Kupp (8/12 UPDATE)
- QB
For standard re-draft and home leagues I would want one of the top 6 QB’s given that they all have dual-threat upside. For me personally, Kyler Murray is my main target at QB this season so I will be targeting him a few rounds later. If I happen to miss out on him, I will pivot to Trevor Lawrence to stack with (more about that later). If you want to reach up for a Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson feel free. This is simply my guide to how I am drafting, at the end of the day it’s your team and you should go get your guys.
Given that I likely won’t be taking a QB here, I want to jump on either DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle if they slide into the 4th round. Smith was a heavy target for me last season and I’m going back to the well in 2024. He had a solid season, but I believe there is room to grow for him here with Kellen Moore now calling the offense for Philly. Moore has a long history of feeding his slot receiver and Smith was one of the best WR’s in football metrically from the slot last season. I’m going to assume Brown and Smith rotate in the slot, but there is upside for Smith to be used there more heavily and that would likely lead to second round production for a guy going two rounds later.
Waddle ran bad on TD’s last year, and is still in an elite offense. There’s upside for round two or even one production if Tyreek Hill misses any time, but even without that he is a reliable fantasy starter weekly with a ceiling.
If you can’t grab either of those two in this range, often times Cooper Kupp is available around this round as well.
8/12 UPDATE: The more information I’ve gathered + the Puka Nacua injury situation I’m moving Kupp on par with Smith and Waddle.
Round 5
This round I will be using the same process as the round prior. If you want to look for a top-end QB you can, but I will likely target WR.
- Zay Flowers
- QB
I was high on Flowers as a rookie, and I’m even higher on him entering his second season. Flowers led the team in YPRR and there’s reason to believe he can take a leap in his second season. Even if he doesn’t, I would be fine with him at this ADP but if he truly does take that next step and become the WR1 Lamar Jackson has never had, he would likely post Round 3 production. I GREATLY prefer Flowers to all of the WR’s getting picked around him, including the likes of George Pickens and Calvin Ridley.
Round 6
This is there I will look to buck the trend of taking WR’s.
- Aaron Jones
- Tee Higgins
- Dalton Kincaid
- Kyler Murray
I love Aaron Jones outlook this season in Minnesota, and if he is there in this round I will have a hard time bypassing him. He fits great as an RB2 and I would have him ranked over several RB’s that get drafted above him.
If you don’t want Jones, or he isn’t available, now is when I want to pounce on QB. Kyler Murray is set for a monster season in my opinion, and I don’t want to leave my draft without him. Arizona is going to have the worst secondary in football by a wide margin, which is going to force this team into shoot-outs weekly. On top of that, he has a great supporting cast headlined by 4th overall pick Marvin Harrison and breakout TE Trey McBride. Greg Dortch has been the talk of Cardinals camp, and rookie RB Trey Benson can contribute in the passing game as well. He’s always been consistent when healthy, and having a full off-season of no injuries is hugely important for him to get on the same page with the full compliment of his weaponry. Arizona has three games with totals over 47 points to begin the season, and there’s a good chance by Week 4 everyone in your league is wondering how you grabbed him in the 6th or 7th round.
Both Tee Higgins and Dalton Kincaid are strong picks here as well. Cincy has the 4th most vacated targets and Higgins is finally healthy after an injury-riddled 2023. He also is in a contract year, and will be even more motivated to post big numbers. Kincaid will likely lead the Bills in catches and targets this season. He has TE1 overall upside.
8/12 UPDATE: In light of the Hollywood Brown injury and with it appearing that he will receive no suspension — Rashee Rice is rising up my tiers quickly. I don’t see how he gets suspended this season, and if you told everyone right now that he wasn’t going to be he would be closer to the 4th round in ADP. I can see his ADP rising quickly so I’m going to be aggressive in moving him up and I will be regularly taking him in the 6th round. I would actually put him closer to Zay Flowers if you could guarantee he doesn’t get suspended.
Round 7
- Kyler Murray
- Chris Godwin
- Rashee Rice
- Evan Engram
There are some strong WR options usually available in this round, but if you have yet to address TE getting Evan Engram is the focus here. I think as of today, there is no player more under-valued in drafts than Evan Engram. He was the TE2 in total PPR points last year, as well as 4th in PPR PPG. He has a legitimate chance to be the TE1 overall and you can get him outside the top 6 rounds of your draft. He’s tied to a good QB that he has a rapport with, and the Jaguars rank 5th in the NFL with 251 vacated targets coming into this season. Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones departed, and the only WR of threat they brought in was Brian Thomas JR who is a rookie. Engram ranked 12th in the NFL in targets last season, and that number could rise even further in 2024. I’m expecting a huge bounce-back season from Lawrence — and Engram could end up being one of the biggest steals in all drafts at this price.
Round 8
- Najee Harris
This is absolutely disturbing if you know me or my history with this guy, but Najee Harris is a must target for me. At this point of the draft you likely still have just one or two RB’s if you’re following along with me. Harris is still slated to be the RB1 in what’s going to be an extremely run-heavy offense called by Arthur Smith. He’s going to have the better chance at goal-line work and he is in a contract year. The ceiling isn’t super high, but he will be reliable enough to start most weeks and I’m completely fine having him as my RB2 or RB3. Despite how bad the QB play was last year he still scored 8 touchdowns and he ranked top-12 in attempts inside the 10 yard line. He has 10+ rushing TD potential.
Round 9
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Ladd McConkey
I absolutely love both of these guys. JSN still has to deal with the likes of DK Metcalf and an aging Tyler Lockett — but there is also a case that he’s just flat out the best receiver on this team. Seattle is getting a massive boost on offense with Ryan Grubb now calling the plays and I expect him to utilize Smith-Njigba completely differently then he was used last season. JSN out-earned the likes of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in a season at Ohio State – and it’s important to not take 2023 as gospel for him when I don’t believe he was being used appropriately. Ryan Grubb was able to manage all of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan at Washington last year — I see no reason why he can’t with the Seahawks big three in 2024. The tape and ability are both there, and I see no reason why he can’t lead this team in catches in 2024.
McConkey is someone I’ve been tweeting about since the end of the college season. Separation and route-running is the most important aspect of evaluating WR play for me in the current landscape of the NFL. McConkey is one of the best route-runners I’ve ever watched at the college level since I started doing this 8 years ago. He combines that with sub-4.4 speed and fell to the perfect landing spot with the Chargers. LA has the most vacated targets in the NFL (almost 400) and he can easily be their WR1 starting in Week 1.
Round 10
- Blake Corum
- Trey Benson
- Chase Brown
As we head into the later rounds of the draft, you want to prioritize having high-upside back-up RB’s on your bench.
Blake Corum is an easy draft for me. He will likely have a third-down role to start the season, and will be a RB1 if Kyren Williams goes down at any point.
Trey Benson could take over as the season goes on, and he’s been getting rave reviews in camp. As I noted with Murray, I want pieces of this Arizona offense so selecting Benson is no stretch.
Chase Brown has been getting steamed out of control, and is in line to be the Bengals starter in my opinion. Home leagues might lag behind on this news, but you may need to reach to get him onto your teams.
Later Round Targets
- Josh Palmer
- Greg Dortch
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Chuba Hubbard
- Jerry Jeudy
- Curtis Samuel
- Brian Thomas JR
- Braelon Allen
- Rico Dowdle
- Audric Estime
- RAY DAVIS (8/20 UPDATE)
- DeAndre Hopkins (8/20 UPDATE)
My Guys 2024
- Malik Nabers
- Najee Harris
- Rashee Rice (8/12 UPDATE)
- Evan Engram
- Kyler Murray
- Ladd McConkey
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Update Log
8/12: Keeping everything the same on Nabers for now.
8/12: Moving up my interest in late 3rd/4th round Kupp.
8/12: Significant rise to Rashee Rice — will likely end up as one of my highest-owned players. Even added him into the “My Guys” tier.
8/15: Moving Gibbs down to 3rd round tier.
8/20: Added Ray Davis to the later round targets tier and making him my favorite late round RB. I like him coming out of Kentucky but wasn’t sure if he would stick in the NFL. Given Buffalo’s lack of interest in using James Cook in the Red Zone – we could see him have a GL role right away and I love how he’s looked on the field in the preseason. He has earned playing time and will be a priority pick for me late in drafts.
8/20: I’ve done three of my 12 drafts and have gotten Brian Thomas Jr on all three teams. Looks like I will be well overweight to him this year.
8/20: Added DHop to my later rounds section, but he is actually probably a good 10th round pick where he is going right now. I would even be fine reaching up for him a bit if he starts to slip in your draft. Strong recent reports that he will be ready to go by Week 1. I had spoke on the DFS first look video that I expect TEN to be more pass-heavy than people expect. Hopkins is a better receiver than Ridley at this point in my opinion as well.
I will continue to provide updates throughout August as injury news rolls in.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
