Ben’s NFL Wild Card Breakdown
What’s up everyone! I’m going to follow my format from last week and give some insight into who I’m targeting this weekend and some game theory as well. Thank you so much for following me this NFL season, and I hope that you continue to do so as we head into my favorite time of the year…baseball season! Let’s get it!
Andrew Luck- This is the best game on the slate, with a 48 O/U in Vegas and it undoubtedly will lead to expanded ownership across all sites. These two teams already faced twice this season, which resulted in two monster games for Luck, as he passed for over 850 yards and six touchdowns. The clear place to attack this Texans defense is through the air, and that is why Luck will be my, and other’s, top quarterback on this weekends slate.
Mitchell Trubisky- Now, say I’m playing ten teams, I plan on being well over-weight to the field on Andrew Luck. That’s going to give me around six Luck teams, and I will use the rest to get some exposure to my next two options, Mitch Trubisky and Lamar Jackson. Trubisky flashed his upside a number of times this season, throwing up a few 30+ fantasy point games doing damage both in the air and on the ground. I think the Bears are a lock to win this game on Sunday, and I still am comfortable attacking this Eagles secondary through the air.
Lamar Jackson- If we are being completely honest, Lamar Jackson sticks out as the top “cash game” play if you are attempting cash this weekend. He’s topped 60+ rushing yards in every game except for one, albeit against the Chargers, but that type of point floor is hard to ignore, especially when he is the cheapest of the three on DraftKings. He’s at home, and he seems to improve weekly. I want to be over-exposed to Luck, but Lamar Jackson is an elite play at his price there is no denying that.
Ezekiel Elliott- This one is fairly obvious, and I don’t think I need to go into a ton of detail as to why you should want to play Zeke Elliott on this slate. Zeke is the definition of a touch monster, his passing game usage as increased greatly with the arrival of Amari Cooper, and there are already reports that the Cowboys are prepared to feed him 40 times this weekend to win this game. He’s going to be owned, but I want to be overweight and I would want pretty much 100% this weekend.
Tarik Cohen/Jordan Howard- Given my interest in Trubisky, I’m going to be interested in the backfield here. Anyone that read my content this season knows that I love to stack QB + RB as a way to “soak up” all of the points from an offense. The issue here is that, we don’t exactly know which one of these guys is going to have a big game, though I am confident in one of them popping off. Jordan Howard was much better down the stretch for the Bears, and Cohen gives you your prototypical PPR-GPP appeal given his skill set, and his ability to return kicks. I am torn on which I like more, but I an assure you that I will stack one of them on my Trubisky teams.
Chris Carson- This is a guy I really don’t feel like most are talking about, but I’m not sure why. We are projecting a massive touch share for Zeke, but Carson is averaging over 20 touches over his last four games as well. I have no issues stacking the two together, as Dallas and Seattle are both teams that want to run the ball first and foremost.
Nyheim Hines- I do expect Lamar Miller to be a popular selection at his price of $4,900 on DraftKings, so Nyheim Hines is coming in as my top overall pivot. As I mentioned above, the Colts had a ton of success through the air in this matchup this season but were held under 100 total yards rushing. This does not profile as a Marlon Mack game, especially if the Colts fall behind. He’s seen 5+ targets in five straight weeks and is one of my favorite GPP plays of the weekend.
DeAndre Hopkins- Much like Zeke Elliott, I don’t need to go into a ton of detail as to why you should be playing DeAndre Hopkins on this slate. He’s been the best wideout in the NFL this season, and has seen almost 30 targets over the last two weeks. He’s going to be highly-owned, but taking a core of Luck-Zeke-Hopkins and filtering in cheap options seems extremely viable to be on both the four and two game slates.
TY Hilton- Given my interest in Luck, I’m going to be interested in Hilton despite him being so banged up. Hilton shredded both meeting with Houston this season putting up 4-115 and 9-199 across 18 targets. I think that this game sets up much better for Hilton and the Colts passing attack than it does for the Cowboys, so I’m going to side with Hilton over Amari Cooper even with the injury.
Dontrelle Inman- This is another one of my favorite plays this weekend, and I think from a value standpoint he is one of the top overall options and will help us with our goal to get in Zeke + Nuk. With Ryan Grant still banged up, Inman’s snaps rose big-time last week and resulted in a six target game against the Titans. With TY Hilton even more banged up than he already was, it’s no stretch to project Inman for another 6+ targets this week and he is clearly taking over the number two role in this offense down the stretch.
Michael Gallup- I’m anticipating Keke Coutee to be a popular cheap option should he be active on Saturday, which is why I’m so interested in Inman and Michael Gallup. Gallup still has a very present role in this Cowboys offense, and while I think that they will deploy a run-heavy approach we are going to have to get weird in GPPs to take down a tourney, especially on a two game slate.
1. Zach Ertz
2. Eric Ebron
3. Mark Andrews
4, Hunter Henry (If active)
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