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Sony Michel is coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 21.3 fantasy points in a dominant win over the Washington Redskins. He played at an elite level in that game, averaging 6.5 yards per touch and finding the end zone. In his other four games this season, Michel is averaging only 7.0 fantasy points per game. He has seen the majority of New England’s rushing attempts this season, but still splits snaps with James White and Rex Burkhead. If Burkhead is out, Brandon Bolden will likely play a role in this game. Even if this game gets out of hand, Michel will need to be nearly perfect to find the over at his current total. If anything outside of the expected happens, he could see limited touches again, and struggle to produce meaning numbers.
Michel’s total is too high, while Golden Tate is on the other end of the spectrum. He could accidentally score 8+ fantasy points in this game. The New York Giants figure to be playing from behind, meaning they’ll throw the ball throughout the entire game. Their offense will be without Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram, leaving plenty of targets to go to other receivers. While the matchup is difficult, Tate only needs 4 receptions for 38 yards to find the over. His line simply doesn’t have to be spectacular for this play to hit. It would be far from surprisingly to see him record 10+ targets in this game, and his ability to play near the line of scrimmage helps keep his catch rate high. I’m taking the under on a total that is far too high, and under on a total that is far too low.
Play 1 unit on Sony Michel UNDER 17.0 fantasy points and Golden Tate OVER 7.7 fantasy points to win 2.5 units (2.5x)
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