Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 9 – UPDATED)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

There is so much clear value this week that cash games should end up being extremely chalky. At quarterback, you’re starting with Jordan Love, who will draw his first start with Aaron Rodgers ruled out. We have basically no information on Love outside of 271 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception on 35 preseason pass attempts. With that being said, he boasted elite arm talent coming out of college and has been sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for years. There was plenty of buzz about him throughout the offseason, as well. The key to Love is his price tag and matchup this weekend. He doesn’t need to throw for 350 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs to hit value, and he should be able to find a bit of success in a game where the Green Bay Packers are projected to throw quite a bit.

If you aren’t looking to spend down on Love this weekend, you’re likely spending up on Josh Allen. He’s the most expensive option on the slate and for good reason. He’s scored 29+ DK points in 3 consecutive games, averaging 33.9 DK points per game in those contests. Allen gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL. As has been the case in past games, there is the concern of a blowout here for Allen, but he has such a large role in the Buffalo Bills offense that he’s likely the reason for the blowout. Allen leads the slate in Projected Points and ranks third in Karma Rating this weekend.

GPP

There are a few great tournament options this weekend, starting with Lamar Jackson. He boasts an outstanding rushing floor, and he gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. The Baltimore Ravens have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and Jackson boasts elite upside. He’s averaging 30 DK points per game at home, scoring 37.26 and 45.88 DK points in 2 of those 4 home games. There are very few quarterbacks in the NFL that can throw for 300+ yards or run for 100+ on any given day. Jackson is one of them, though, and I don’t expect Minnesota’s defense to have an answer to his versatility.

It looks as if Taysom Hill could go a bit overlooked with Jordan Love being the easy, cheap option. He’s expected to take over for the New Orleans Saints, though, and we saw Hill’s elite upside last season. He doesn’t have an elite real-life arm, but he can get the job done with elite rushing potential. If Hill is going overlooked, he’s an elite indirect pivot off of the chalkier Love. Joe Burrow is another player that never seems to get the recognition he deserves. He’s thrown for 250+ yards and 3 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games. Burrow finally looks healthy, and he gets a matchup against an injured Cleveland Browns defense. He’s scored 20+ DK points in 5 consecutive games, and I expect him to continue that streak this weekend. Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, and Patrick Mahomes can all be considered in GPPs, as well.

UPDATE

Running Backs

Cash

Since there are such elite salary relief options at quarterback and tight end, you’re going to be able to play essentially whoever you want elsewhere. Running back starts with Alvin Kamara, who’s been playing at an elite level in recent games. He’s scored 36.9 and 29.2 DK points in 2 of his last 3 games. Even with Taysom Hill taking over as quarterback, Kamara should see 20+ touches in a plus matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Ezekiel Eliott is another high-priced option that comes with tremendous upside. He’s coming off of a bad game against the Minnesota Vikings, but he averaged 24.3 DK points per game in his 3 games prior to that. Elliott owns a massive red zone role for the Dallas Cowboys, who are double-digit favorites in this game. He’s far too cheap for his role, talent, and matchup, making him an elite cash game option.

There are several other high-priced options that can be considered in cash games tonight. I have Aaron Jones listed as a “Safe GPP” option, although I believe he can be considered in cash games, as well. He boasts an elite role in the Green Bay Packers offense because of his versatility. Regardless of the score, he has a role, and he could be somewhat of a safety blanket for Jordan Love in his first start. Austin Ekeler and Dalvin Cook can also be considered here. Similar to the three running backs above, Ekeler and Cook are extremely versatile with big red zone roles for their respective teams. With so much salary relief at other positions, you should be taking the safety at running back this weekend.

GPP

Nick Chubb without Kareem Hunt will always be an interesting option. That’s the case again this week. Oddly enough, he isn’t running as the clear-cut featured back, as D’Ernest Johnson saw a small role last week. Still, Chubb gets a good matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he could see 20+ carries as Baker Mayfield continues to deal with injuries. Eli Mitchell’s caught fire in recent games, recording 244 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries over his last 2 games. He gets a great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who’ve struggled to defend the run this season. Mitchell is dealing with an injury, so come back for the Friday update to see his status at that point. If he’s healthy, he’s one of the best tournament options on this slate.

The Buffalo Bills are massive favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. Utilizing their running game is a way to pivot off of Josh Allen at quarterback. Of the duo, I prefer Zack Moss, who has a bigger role in the offense. He should see plenty of red zone work along with potentially running out the clock later in the game. Myles Gaskins’ seen 15+ touches in 3 of his last 4 games. In those games, he’s averaging 19.4 DK points. Gaskins gets a great matchup against the Houston Texans, and he comes with plenty of upside for a cheap price tag this weekend.

UPDATE

Ezekiel Elliott is the cash lock, as he’s far too cheap on this slate. You’re then likely choosing between Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler if you want to get to the top of this position. I don’t believe there’s a wrong choice at the moment, but I would rank Kamara slightly above Ekeler. I’m also shifting Eli Mitchell (assuming he’s healthy) into cash games. He’s one of my favorite backs on the slate, and he can be used in all leagues. Cordaralle Patterson can also be added to the cash game pool. Aaron Jones is better suited for GPPs, along with Dalvin Cook. Nick Chubb continues to be one of my favorite GPP options, as well. Once again, I have no problems using Zack Moss as a salary relief option in GPPs. Myles Gaskins is starting to gain some steam late in the week, and he’s a player I’ll likely avoid if he ends up being chalky.

Wide Receivers

Cash

Similar to running back, you’re likely spending up on at least one wide receiver option. Pairing Jordan Love with Davante Adams makes the most sense early in the week. He’s going to be a focal point of the Green Bay Packers offense, and correlating him with Love is a great option. You can stay in that game with Tyreek Hill as a spend-up, as well. Hill’s a relatively consistent option who boasts as much upside as anyone on the slate. Green Bay doesn’t feature anyone defensively that’s going to be able to slow down Hill, making him one of the best options this weekend.

Hunter Renfrow is the salary relief option at wide receiver on this slate. He’ll see a larger role in the Las Vegas Raiders offense after the team cut Henry Ruggs earlier this week. Renfrow’s already seeing a solid offensive role, allowing him to consistently produce for his price tag. He could see a few extra targets, though, adding to his ceiling, as well. Stefon Diggs is a “Safe GPP” option that can be considered in cash games after Adams and Hill. He gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Buffalo Bills figure to be one of the best offenses in the league this weekend. Similar to Allen, the biggest concern is a blowout. Brandin Cooks is another option that can be considered in cash on this slate.

GPP

We’re in an odd spot at wide receiver where I nearly put Stefon Diggs as a cash game option. If you’re playing Josh Allen, you can stack them. I worry about the blowout, though, limiting Diggs later in the game. With that being said, he’s an elite option against the Miami Dolphins this weekend. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders can also be considered here, as they both have the skillsets to take advantage of this matchup. Only use two of these three on any given team, though. If you’re using a pair of them, you should also use Allen.

Justin Jefferson’s taken a step back this season, although he’s still found plenty of success. Adam Thielen’s outscoring him at this point, although this is an ideal week to use Jefferson. The second-year pro is the top YAC option for Minnesota, and the Baltimore Ravens struggle with YAC. Jefferson’s flashed tremendous upside in 2021, and he makes a high-upside option once again. Amari Cooper’s been relatively inconsistent this season, but he comes with tremendous upside on a weekly basis. Ownership should move to Ezekiel Elliott at running back, allowing Cooper to go overlooked at receiver. Still, Dallas’ offense can score in several ways, adding up to players like Cooper, who could see lower ownership than CeeDee Lamb. DJ Moore, Marquise Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and Cole Beasley can all be considered here, as well.

UPDATE