Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 8)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

There is essentially a two-man race at quarterback in cash games this weekend. At the moment, Jalen Hurts sits well above everyone else. He’s been arguably the safest fantasy quarterback in the NFL, scoring 22+ DK points in each of his 7 games. His rushing potential gives him an elite floor, and he gets a great matchup against the Detroit Lions this weekend. They’re allowing the eighth-most airYAC (1,957) in the NFL this season, struggling specifically with air yards. The Philadelphia Eagles are -3 point favorites this weekend, and Hurts owns the second-highest Karma Value at this position in our Projections.

The second cash game option is Josh Allen. He hasn’t quite been as safe as Hurts, but he boasts as much upside as any player in the NFL on a weekly basis. Allen’s averaging 33.4 DK points over his last 4 games, scoring 21+ DK points in each game. He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who’ve allowed 2,177 airYAC this season. The Buffalo Bills boast the highest implied team total on this slate at 31.8 points. The major concern here is a blowout, as that occurred in their first matchup, and Allen only scored 17.66 DK points. This is a bit of a risk in cash games, but the reward could be worth it.

GPP

You can start this week with Tom Brady in GPPs. I considered adding him to the cash game pool, but I don’t feel as if he’s necessary with Hurts and Allen priced above and below him. Instead, Brady can be used in tournaments as a high-upside option in an interesting matchup. The New Orleans Saints feature a solid pass defense, but it likely doesn’t matter for Brady. He leads the NFL by a wide margin in red zone pass attempts and pass attempts inside-the-10. He also scored nearly 32 DK points with only 1 passing touchdown earlier this season. Brady boasts as much upside as any quarterback, even in a difficult matchup.

Carson Wentz hasn’t flashed a ton of upside this season, as he’s yet to throw for more than 2 touchdowns in a game. With that being said, he hasn’t been in a truly competitive game in 2 weeks. Prior to these blowouts, he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game. He gets an elite matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who are coming off of a great performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence is another salary relief option in a great matchup this week. The Seattle Seahawks have struggled quite a bit, and Lawrence has posted 2 of his best games of the season in his last 2 contests. He quietly boasts rushing potential, and this is a matchup where he has the potential to finally get his game working. Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Jameis Winston are other interesting GPP options on this slate.

Running Backs

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Alvin Kamara is gaining steam early in the week, and he’s an interesting option. The New Orleans Saints aren’t likely to try to run against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they can use Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield. With that being said, it’s tough for me to pay nearly as much for him as Derrick Henry. Henry’s playing in a game with a 1-point spread, suggesting he’ll see work for the entire game. He’s coming off of a terrible game, but he still found 16.4 DK points. Henry’s the priority over Kamara at the top of running back for me.

Darrell Henderson’s enjoying a massive role in the Los Angeles Rams offense, but his price tag doesn’t represent that. Once again, they’re massive favorites (-14.5 points) this weekend. Henderson is still only $6,500, and he’s a great option in all leagues, as Los Angeles figures to be running the clock out in the second half of this game. D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler are a pair of receiving backs who boast big roles in their respective offenses. They each get solid matchups, although I prefer Swift for slightly cheaper. With that being said, Ekeler has a larger red zone role, and either of the duo can be considered in cash games on this slate.

GPP

Damien Harris struggled with limited carries in 2 games this season. In his other 5 games, he’s averaging 17.8 DK points per game, including 20+ DK points in each of his last 2 games. Harris is a touchdown-dependent running back, but he also ranks third in the NFL in carries inside-the-5. He gets an interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who tend to dare their opponents to run against them. Zack Moss is another outstanding salary relief option in GPPs this weekend. He’s seen a mixed role in the Buffalo Bills offense, but he gets a great matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who’ve struggled against the run this season. Devin Singletary can also be considered here, although I prefer Moss at this point.

Joe Mixon gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets in a game the Cincinnati Bengals should be running out the clock later on. He’s flashed at times this season, and he should be fresh after recording only 12 touches in a blowout last week. Mixon’s a bit pricey, and he should go overlooked with Swift only $200 more expensive. Around the same price range is Jonathan Taylor, who’s averaging 28 DK points per game over his last 4 games. He leads the NFL in red zone carries, and he gets a plus matchup against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. We need to keep an eye on the Philadelphia Eagles running back situation before making a decision on them, as well. Other GPP options at this position include Chuba Hubbard, Leonard Fournette, and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Wide Receivers

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It’s virtually impossible to avoid Cooper Kupp in cash games at this point. He’s scored 40.6 and 37 DK points over his last 2 games, and he’s surpassed 27 DK points in 5 of his 7 games this season. Even in a potential blowout, Kupp is the top cash game option on this slate. Michael Pittman’s enjoying a breakout season, averaging 18.6 DK points per game in his last 5 contests without T.Y. Hilton. Hilton’s questionable this weekend, and he’d hurt Pittman if he’s able to suit up. If he’s out, Pittman is in another elite matchup, and he’s far too cheap for his talent and volume.

Brandin Cooks owns an elite target share for the Houston Texans, as he’s averaging 9.1 targets per game this season. He gets a solid matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who struggle with yards after the catch this season. Houston should be throwing for the majority of this game, as well. Deebo Samuel’s another player with a massive target share for his team, and he’s been extremely consistent throughout the season. He gets a tough matchup against the Chicago Bears, although he’s playing well enough to be considered in all leagues. Calvin Ridley’s been a disappointment this season, as quite a few people labeled him the WR1 prior to the season. That hasn’t been the case, but he’s seeing double-digit targets on a weekly basis. He’s also posted 10+ DK points in every game he’s played. Even with the struggles, Ridley can be considered in all leagues.

GPP

We’re in an odd spot at wide receiver where I nearly put Stefon Diggs as a cash game option. If you’re playing Josh Allen, you can stack them. I worry about the blowout, though, limiting Diggs later in the game. With that being said, he’s an elite option against the Miami Dolphins this weekend. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders can also be considered here, as they both have the skillsets to take advantage of this matchup. Only use two of these three on any given team, though. If you’re using a pair of them, you should also use Allen.

Courtland Sutton is quietly in one of the best spots of the weekend. The Washinton Football Team’s allowed a league-high 1,379 air yards in 2021. Sutton’s seen 42.9% of the Denver Broncos’ air yards with a 16.4 aDOT this season. He’s flashed tremendous upside after his injury, and he’s an elite option on this slate. Ja’Marr Chase is getting all of the recognition for the Cincinnati Bengals, but Tee Higgins boasts an elite role in the offense. He saw 15 targets last week, although he hasn’t produced overly well in weeks. He’s an elite option, along with Chase, although there is blowout concern in this game. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both great options, especially if Antonio Brown is out. With that being said, Rob Gronkowski should take some of their red zone targets. Other receivers to consider are Devonta Smith, DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, and Keenan Allen.